Deltona, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

946
FXUS62 KMLB 110636
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
236 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

- Coverage of showers and storms return to a more typical
  summertime pattern this week.

- With slightly lower rain chances this week, temperatures
  approach the low to mid 90s with heat index values 102 to 107+
  degrees.

-There is a Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
 through at least mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Today-Tuesday... Mid-level high pressure across the region will
gradually shift westward through the period. Surface high pressure
off the New England coast will slowly shift south and eastward into
the western Atlantic, with the axis remaining over the Florida
peninsula. Locally, southeast winds will dominate with speeds around
10 mph or less across the interior, and 10-15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph along the coast as the pressure gradient continues to weaken.
The deep moisture that has been in place over east central
Florida for the past several days has shifted away, with drier air
infiltrating the mid and upper levels. This will result in
convection returning to a more typical summertime pattern. There
is a medium (50-60 percent) chance for rain and storms each
afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage favoring the
interior. Forecast soundings shows sufficient low level moisture
(~2.0"), warmer temperatures aloft (-5.6 C at 500 mb), adequate
instability (MUCAPE ~1800 J/kg), and drier air in the mid and
upper levels, which may lead to gustier storms. Thus, the main
storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of
40-50 mph, and locally heavy down pours.

Temperatures overall will be on an upward trend this week as rain
and storm chances decrease. Afternoon highs will be in the low
90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior. These
temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak heat indices
of 102 to 107 degrees each afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions
will persist overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday... Mid-level high pressure centered over the
Florida peninsula on Wednesday will continue to shift westward into
the eastern Gulf into Thursday, and N/NW Gulf by the weekend. At the
surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to
build westward over the Florida peninsula through the period, while
slowly shifting northward. Locally, E/SE winds will dominate each
day before backing offshore each night. The pressure gradient will
remain weak, with wind speeds generally 10 mph or less. Ample
moisture will be in place with PW values around 1.8-2.0", but could
increase to over 2" by the weekend. This will support a medium (50-
60 percent) chance for rain and storms each afternoon and evening,
with the greatest coverage occurring across the interior.

The warming trend will continue as rain chance return to a more
typical pattern for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in
the low to mid 90s each day. These temperature coupled with
humidity will produce peak heat indices of 102-107 degrees. The
potential exists for isolated higher values for heat indices,
which would be close to heat advisory criteria. Thus, will
continue to monitor these values. Overnight conditions will remain
warm and muggy with lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Today-Friday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
period outside of showers and lightning storms. Southeast winds will
dominate with wind speeds of 10-15 KT today before decreasing to
around 10 KT or less from Tuesday onward as the pressure gradient
over the waters slackens. Seas 3-4ft today will subside to 2-3ft by
Tuesday and remain for the rest of the week. Rain and storm chances
return to a typical summertime pattern this week, with the highest
coverage forecast to occur well inland. However, any storms that do
occur over the local waters will be capable of producing gusty
winds, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Pesky BKN008 deck at ISM is not being handled by the models well,
nor is it easily seen on current satellite imagery, but is also
present at MCO as a SCT layer. Low confidence for how long IFR
conditions may last or the extent to which they will expand. For
now, have included a TEMPO at ISM through 8Z, though this will
need to be monitored through sunrise.

Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing. South to south-southeasterly
winds overnight and into Monday morning will back southeasterly
behind the sea breeze into the afternoon. Winds up to 12kts along
the coast, with gusts to around 20kts possible for coastal areas south
of the Cape. CAMs suggest VCTS developing along the coast first,
before progressing inland through the afternoon. The highest
coverage for showers and storms looks to be over the interior,
where TEMPOs have been included for MCO/SFB/ISM/LEE between 21-1Z.
Convection is then forecast to diminish for the late evening and
overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  77  91  76 /  60  20  60  10
MCO  92  76  93  76 /  70  20  70  10
MLB  91  79  91  77 /  50  20  60  10
VRB  92  76  92  75 /  50  20  60  10
LEE  92  77  93  77 /  70  20  60  10
SFB  93  77  93  76 /  60  20  60  10
ORL  92  77  93  76 /  70  20  70  10
FPR  91  75  92  74 /  50  20  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy