Deltona, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

737
FXUS62 KMLB 102056
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
356 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 352 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

- Hazardous boating and beach conditions this afternoon with a
  High Risk of rip currents

- Continued above normal temperatures then turning slightly cooler
  late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are
ongoing this afternoon, mainly form Melbourne northward. These
showers are moving northwest around 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures as of
3 PM are in the upper 70s to low 80s with some low to mid level
clouds streaming across the Florida peninsula.

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to push
E/SE and off the mid Atlc coast this afternoon while building down
the eastern seaboard. The pressure gradient will remain tight over
the local area this afternoon, allowing for breezy/gusty easterly
winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph at times. Forecast
soundings shows a fair amount of dry air in the mid and upper
levels, with adequate low-level moisture (PW values ranging from 1.3-
1.6"). This low-level moisture will allow these isolated to
scattered onshore moving showers to continue. This activity will be
moving towards the W/NW around 10-15 mph, with the best chance for
showers occurring along the Volusia and Brevard coasts before
activity shifts more southward along the Treasure Coast into
tonight. Due to the drier air in the mid and upper levels, showers
will remain fairly shallow-topped into tonight, thus, no lightning
storms are forecast.

Warm conditions continue, with above normal temperatures forecast.
Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s, which is about 4-8
degrees above normal. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low
70s, which is 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Mon-Sat... (Modified Previous Discussion) A surface trough will lift
north and northwest from the Bahamas, skirting the periphery of the
Atlantic ridge, before reaching South Florida and the adjacent
Atlantic waters on Monday. This will bring increasing moisture
across the local area on Monday, resulting in isolated to scattered
showers (PoP 20-30 percent), especially from Cape Canaveral to
Kissimmee southward. Isolated lightning storms will be possible in
the afternoon on Monday, mainly late afternoon. The greatest
potential for lightning storms occurring will be across the Treasure
Coast and Okeechobee counties.

A weak cool front is forecast to push across the area Tuesday and
absorb this disturbance, shunting the deeper moisture east away from
the area. There may be lingering showers on Tuesday along the
Treasure coast, but guidance has backed off on this. Thus, have kept
any mentionable rain chances out of the forecast for Tuesday. The
threat for lightning storms is too low to mention in the forecast. A
period of breezy/gusty north to northeast winds is forecast
Wednesday but max temperatures will only drop a couple degrees
holding in the lower 80s. Have kept Wednesday dry but forecast model
soundings show enough low level moisture to produce isolated, fast-
moving showers off the Atlantic on Thu.

A somewhat stronger cool front is forecast to push cleanly through
the area Thursday night. Noticeably drier but only slightly cooler
air is expected behind this front. Temperatures Fri-Sat will lower
only back to near normal for this time of year as sfc wind flow
maintains an onshore component. But wind flow looks to be fairly
light as weak high pressure settles into the SE U.S.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Tonight- Thursday... A reinforcing high pressure will continue to
build down the eastern seaboard this afternoon while while producing
breezy/gusty east winds along with hazardous boating conditions
today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all the local
Atlantic waters through this evening, with the nearshore waters
being replaced with exercise caution headlines tonight. Small Craft
Advisory for the offshore waters goes through Monday morning. Seas
will be 5-7ft tonight. Isolated showers will continue to be possible
across the local waters tonight.

A surface trough will lift north to northwest from the Bahamas,
skirting the periphery of the Atlantic ridge, before reaching South
Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters on Monday. This will
loosen the pressure gradient over the local area, allowing the
winds to decrease to around 10 KT and veer to the south. Seas will
be slower to subside but will fall below 7 feet offshore and 6 feet
nearshore by afternoon Mon. Isolated to scattered shower and
isolated lightning storms will be possible on Monday.

Then reinforcing high pressure over the Great Lakes will build back
down the eastern seaboard and bring an increase in NE winds Tue-Wed
which will build seas back to 6-8 FT by Wed. So Small Craft
Advisories will likely be raised again. NE winds continue Thu but
not as strong but seas will remain poor to hazardous especially in
the Gulf Stream. Mostly dry conditions are expected into mid week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 105 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Increasing coverage of onshore moving showers has prompted the
addition of brief TEMPO groups to a few terminals at the coast,
where MVFR cig and vis reductions are likely in accumulating rain.
Isolated VCSH will push farther inland mainly north of KMCO,
diminishing by 00Z. Guidance suggesting patchy fog development
across the interior tonight, so have included initial ceiling
reductions and ground fog mention in this package, with more
aggressive mentions possible in future TAF updates. Showers will be
confined to areas south of KMLB tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  84  70  83 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  71  85  70  86 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  73  84  72  84 /  20  20  10   0
VRB  74  85  72  85 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  69  86  69  86 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  85  69  85 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  71  87  71  87 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  74  85  72  84 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552-
     555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper