Brandon, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

076
FXUS62 KTBW 230040
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
740 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cautionary level winds decrease across coastal waters tonight.

- Patchy, dense fog possible each morning. Increasing coverage
  over the next couple days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

The 0Z sounding shows that a dry, stable atmosphere remains across
the region. There is just a shallow layer of moisture from the
surface up to about 800mb or so (i.e. the first 7kft of the
atmosphere). The greatest concentration of this moisture has been
around 4kft to 6kft, with some clouds streaming across the peninsula
in this layer. It`s a bit drier towards the surface, but the
diurnal decline in temperatures is beginning to close that gap.
This does suggest that there could be some radiation fog if the
winds become light enough. However, the gradient remains strong
enough that this overall likelihood is still low for tonight. The
potential will increase over the next couple days as the ridge
axis settles directly overhead.

Overall, this means the forecast remains on track. The only minor
adjustment was to tweak spatial coverage for where fog is most
likely, which only impacts the Nature Coast tonight. Otherwise, no
changes are needed at this time.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

A very weak frontal boundary moved south over the area last night
into this morning, and has stalled over south FL. What does this
mean for our area? A very slight chance of an isolated shower
overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Mainly for interior
portions of the forecast area. Today, we also have increased ENE
winds that will be quite gusty at times. Otherwise, high pressure
will settle back over the peninsula tomorrow and the remainder of
the week will feel like a broken record. Cool in the mornings,
warm, dry and sunny in the afternoons. The only significant
weather feature will be the possibility of patchy, dense fog in
the early morning hours.

A change to the pattern arrives Sunday night, as a cold front moves
through the state. Though current models are not showing much in the
way of rain, they are hinting that this front will usher in a
respectable cool down. Wide spread lows in the 30s and 40s are
looking possible the last couple days of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Quiet VFR weather is expected as high pressure remains in control.
No significant aviation impacts are expected through tomorrow.
There is an increasing potential for some lower CIGs/VIS for
subsequent days, however, as conditions become more favorable for
this to occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Cautionary level winds continue over the waters through the
remainder of the day before diminishing overnight. Winds remain
below cautionary levels through the remainder of the week. There
is a possibility of land fog advecting over the near shore waters
early in the mornings this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values stay above
critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  81  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  63  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  62  80  57  81 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  63  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  54  82  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  79  64  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Pearce