Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

150
FXUS62 KMLB 240726
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 213 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Patchy fog is forecast along and north of the I-4 corridor into
  early this morning, as well as across much of the area late
  tonight into early Thursday morning.

- Mostly dry conditions forecast through Christmas and into the
  weekend with light showers/sprinkles forecast across the
  Treasure Coast Tonight.

- Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the rest
  of the week and into the weekend, with colder than normal
  conditions moving in early next week. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Today-Thursday...Upper level high pressure across the Gulf and Deep
South will remain in place through the period as an upper level
trough moves into the upper northeast US and out into the Atlantic.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US today will begin to
slowly shift southward over the Florida peninsula on Christmas Day
(Thursday). Locally, this will result in north to north east winds
dominating each day, with speeds generally 10 mph or less. Drier air
will remain in place, with forecast soundings showing a significant
dry layer in the mid to upper levels. Because of this, mostly dry
conditions are forecast through the period. However, due to the
onshore flow and sufficient moisture (PW values around 0.8") along
with a backdoor front pushing through the area, an isolated light
shower, or sprinkle may develop over the waters and push onshore,
mainly across the Treasure Coast, late today and into tonight.
Otherwise, no mentionable rain chances over land areas through
the period.

Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this
time of year with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s both days.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s across the interior, and upper 50s
to low 60s along the coast tonight, before turning cooler on
Thursday night with lows generally in the 50s. Patchy fog is
forecast late tonight into Thursday morning as well as Thursday
night into Friday morning. Models show fog potential mainly along
and north of the I-4 corridor tonight, and generally north of Martin
County on Thursday night. If you encounter fog while driving,
remember to slow down and turn on your headlights!

Friday-Sunday... Upper level trough over the Great Lakes region on
Friday will deepen as it moves across the eastern US into the
weekend, eventually pushing offshore into the Atlantic on Sunday
as another trough develops near the Great Lakes region. Upper
level ridging over the Gulf and Deep South will begin to weaken
after Friday as several disturbances from the trough over the
Great Lakes moves into the eastern US. At the surface, axis of
high pressure will remain over the Florida peninsula as the center
of high pressure moves into the Gulf and low pressure moves
across the eastern US. A cold front will then move into the Deep
south and then into northern Florida on Sunday. Locally, winds
will shift westerly on Friday, and west to northwest on Saturday
and Sunday, with speeds generally 10 KT or less. The east coast
sea breeze is forecast to form each day, turning the winds
onshore along the coast and part way inland in the afternoon. Dry
conditions are forecast through the end of the weekend.
Temperatures will remain seasonable to slightly above normal for
this time of year with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low
80s. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s.

Monday-Tuesday... A strong upper level low over the Great Lakes on
Monday will lift north and eastward to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia
Tuesday. A strong cold front will move southward across east central
Florida through the day on Monday. High pressure will then build
over the Florida peninsula behind the front. Locally, winds will
shift north to northwest on Monday, and more northerly on Tuesday,
with speeds at 10-15 mph on Monday, and generally 10 mph on Tuesday
except along the coast where it will remain  breezy. This frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances
over land areas currently in the forecast. Model disagreements
continue however, with the GFS showing a dry frontal passage over
land and the ECMWF indicating the potential for a little more
rainfall with this boundary into Monday/Monday evening. For now,
have isolated to scattered showers over the Atlantic waters Monday
and Tuesday, with land areas remaining dry.

Drier and much cooler air will filter behind the front, with below
normal temperatures forecast into the middle of next week. However,
temperatures on Monday still look to be near to slightly above
normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s on Monday, with noticeably cooler highs on Tuesday with
temperatures ranging from mid to upper 50s across the north to mid
60s across the south. Temperatures will drop overnight, with lows
ranging from upper 30s to low 50s on Monday night, before turning
even colder Tuesday night with lows generally in the 30s across the
interior, and upper 30s to low 40s along the coast. Due to the NW
winds remaining around 10 mph overnight Monday, wind chills are
forecast as low as the mid to upper 30s across northern portions of
east central Florida Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Today-Sunday... Boating conditions will continue to improve today,
with generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend.
However boating conditions will begin to deteriorate Sunday night
into next week as the next cold front approaches the local waters.
Northeast winds around 10 KT today will back north to northwest on
Thursday, west to northwest on Friday and Saturday, and west to
southwest on Sunday with winds increasing to 15-20 KT Sunday night
as winds veer west to northwest. Isolated showers are forecast today
through Thursday, mainly across the offshore waters and the
nearshore waters of the Treasure Coast. Guidance is showing some of
these showers potentially pushing onshore, mainly along the Treasure
Coast, late today into early Thursday morning. Otherwise, dry
conditions are forecast. Seas 3-5 ft today will subside to 2-4 ft
Thursday and Friday before seas briefly build back up to 5ft in the
offshore waters on Saturday. Seas briefly subside to 2-4ft on on
Sunday before building up to 6ft Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1216 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Models continue to suggest patchy fog overnight into early Wed
morning (generally after 08Z) along and north of the I-4 corridor.
Have kept inherited TEMPOs for IFR conditions from MCO/ISM
northward, with MVFR reductions to TIX/MLB. Will continue to
monitor the trends into the morning hours. Regardless, any FG/BR
is forecast to diminish by around 13-14Z, with VFR conditions then
prevailing. N/NE winds under 10 kts through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  56  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  79  58  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  77  58  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  77  57  78  55 /  10  10   0   0
LEE  79  56  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  56  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  79  58  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  77  56  78  55 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Sedlock