Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

018
FXUS62 KMLB 021345
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
945 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

-Breezy southeast winds with dry conditions prevailing through the
 weekend. The chance for showers and storms returns early next
 week ahead of an approaching cold front.

-Warming trend into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching the
 lower 90s west of I-95.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

As low stratus and patchy fog erodes this morning, temperatures
are climbing into the mid and upper 70s. A field of cumulus clouds
is already developing, so anticipate a mix of sun and fair weather
clouds through the day. Plenty of warming will take place, despite
an east coast sea breeze moving inland this afternoon. Inland
locations will warm the most, prior to the sea breeze, reaching
the upper 80s to low 90s (including the Orlando metro). Coastal
sites will reach the mid to upper 80s. This update brings
temperatures up a degree or two in spots. Breezy southeast winds
gusting 20-25 mph can also be expected, especially closer to the
coast. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Today-Tonight... Mid and upper level high pressure across the
Western Atlantic will build across the Florida peninsula today, and
will dominate the local weather pattern. Surface high pressure
across the NE US coast will slowly shift southward into the Atlantic
waters into this afternoon, continuing to move seaward through
tonight. Patchy fog and low stratus are once again possible early
this morning across much of east central Florida, especially over
areas that received rain yesterday. Visibility reductions to 1 mile
or less will be possible in dense fog. Any fog that does form is
forecast to lift by 9 AM. Light winds this morning will become
southeast by mid/late morning, increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-
25 mph at times by this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is
forecast to form in the afternoon and push inland. Forecast
soundings continue to show dry air in the mid-upper levels with PW
values ranging from 1.1-1.2". Despite this sufficient low level
moisture and an inland moving sea breeze, no mentionable rain
chances are forecast through tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies
today with above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the
upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday... Mid and upper level high pressure across the
Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate
the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly
shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At
the surface, high pressure off the Northeast US coast on Thursday
will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through
the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida
peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the
period, becoming breezy on Thu (15-20 mph), with speeds generally
around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast.
Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues
to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and
moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances
through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal,
with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across
the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight
lows will be in the mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward.

Monday-Wednesday... A deep upper level trough across the Midwest
extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US
coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold
front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the
local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain
chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40
percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on
Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before
increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday
behind the front. A  surface high pressure will then build across
the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula on Wednesday.
Lingering moisture across east central Florida will support isolated
to scattered showers on Wednesday. Southwest winds on Monday will
veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before
continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon, and
northeast on Wednesday. Wind will become breezy (10-15 mph)
Wednesday along the coast, otherwise speeds will generally be around
10 mph. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably
cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the
north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday, and mid
to upper 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s,
except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s
across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Today-Tonight... Poor boating conditions developing in the Treasure
Coast waters and the offshore Brevard waters this afternoon and
continuing into tonight as southeast winds increase to 15-20 KT
this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in these waters
into tonight. Southeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT in the
remaining Atlantic waters. Seas 3-4ft today will increase up to 5 ft
in the offshore waters tonight. No mentionable rain chances through
the period.

Thur-Sunday... High pressure will then dominate the local weather
pattern through the weekend. Poor boating conditions are forecast in
the Gulf Stream waters Thursday, becoming generally favorable into
the weekend. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on Tuesday will
back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the
east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to 15-20 KT on
Thursday before diminishing to around 15 KT on Friday and Saturday.
Winds veer Southerly on Sunday and increase to 15-20 KT by the
afternoon. Seas 4-5ft on Thursday will subside to 3-4ft on Friday
through Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Some stratus and patchy fog has developed across portions of the
area, especially across the interior, producing IFR/MVFR
conditions. Stratus/fog is lifting gradually northward and may
impact all inland TAF sites through 13-14Z before it lifts and
breaks up with daytime heating and mixing. VFR conditions will
then prevail into the afternoon and evening hours. Boundary layer
winds increase tonight, which should limit fog development, but
stratus producing IFR/MVFR cigs may be possible. MOS guidance not
showing much yet, but can`t rule it out and for now put SCT015 in
around 06Z for most sites.

Southeast winds will increase to around 12-15 knots across the
interior with gusts to 20-22 knots. The inland moving east coast
sea breeze will increase E/SE winds along the coast even more,
around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots this afternoon.
Wind speeds will slowly decrease, but still remain elevated into
tonight around 8-13 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  69  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  90  71  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  86  71  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  86  71  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  90  70  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  90  70  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  90  71  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  86  70  84  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Weitlich