Pike Creek, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

619
FXUS61 KPHI 091814
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
214 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches tonight and moves through tomorrow. High
pressure builds in for Wednesday, keeping things quiet and warm
through the end of the week. A cold front moves in from the north
later on Friday, stalling out near or over the area for the weekend.
Several waves of low pressure ride along the front, bringing
unsettled weather for the weekend and start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stalled out front to our south moves northward as a warm front
this evening into tonight. Not expecting any precipitation from this
front. In terms of cloud cover, the light east to southeast
wind through the remainder of today and into tonight keeps the
marine stratus overhead as well. Temperatures tonight range from
the upper 50s to upper 60s. A cold front moving in from the
west will lead to showers and thunderstorm potential. Generally,
around 2-4 AM, showers start to move in from the west. The
coverage of the showers will gradually pick up late tonight into
Tuesday morning with the coverage becoming scattered with
embedded thunderstorms.

Throughout the day Tuesday, the cold front inches east and even
looks to slow down or stall a bit while moving through our area. The
highest POPs will continue being for areas that will be along and
ahead of the cold front as it slowly moves east or even at
times stalls. This includes areas mainly east and southeast of
the urban corridor across portions of central and southern NJ
into Delmarva. Instability looks to be limited but has increased
with the latest data as ML cape values are around 500 j/kg and
surface based cape being higher which may have to do with the
front being slower. The deep layer shear also looks to be quite
strong, so we can`t rule out some isolated strong to severe
storms. There is also a marginal (1/4) Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for much of our area with the potential for heavy rain
with some of these showers and any thunderstorms. The main
concern would be mainly for urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas. Expect highs Tuesday mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s
with it also being fairly humid until drier air starts to move
in behind the cold front which may not happen until the evening
or even Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front is offshore by Tuesday Night as skies clear out and
we transition to more of a quiet period. Looks generally tranquil
through the middle of the week with high pressure off to the
south/southwest. Given ridging building in to the south, and the
surface high to the south ushering in west/southwest flow, a warming
trend begins on Wednesday, where highs get into the low to mid 80s.
We go even warmer on Thursday, where areas around the I-95 corridor
potentially take a run at 90, and mid to upper 80s elsewhere. PHL
has not recored a 90 degree day yet, which the first one typically
comes in May. A shortwave tries to dive in on Thursday, which could
touch off a few showers/isolated thunderstorms in the Poconos, but
nothing of significance.

Cooler overnight lows on Tuesday Night with the front sweeping
through and skies clearing out where lows drop into the upper
50s/low 60s. More summerlike lows for Wednesday Night and Thursday
Night with the warming trend, where temperatures only get down into
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front sags down from the north on Friday afternoon, stalling
out over the area for the weekend. Several waves of low pressure
will ride along the front, with periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected through the long term. Model guidance
tends to struggle with setups like these, and this case is no
different. Not expecting a weekend washout, but rather periods
of rain with a few thunderstorms mixed in and mostly cloudy
skies outside of any precipitation. While Friday will be warm
with highs in the mid to upper 80s ahead of the front,
temperatures cool off for the weekend, with a period of below
normal temperatures expected. Saturday through Monday looks to
feature highs in the low to mid 70s.

Currently not expecting any hydro or severe issues at this time for
the weekend. Cloudy and cool conditions should keep things stable,
and rainfall amounts in the extended deterministic and ensemble
guidance do not show overwhelming amounts. All in all, just looks
like another weekend featuring rain.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z today...Mainly MVFR conditions continue with low
ceilings due to stratus. Winds around 5 knots out of the NE to
ENE. High confidence

Tonight...Mainly MVFR conditions to start, with IFR probable
again as low stratus clouds move in and the development of
mist/light drizzle. By around 06-08Z, showers move in from west
to east. There may also be some embedded thunderstorms with the
showers. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...IFR conditions persist through the day Tuesday due to
stratus causing low ceilings. Visibility looks to improve at
most terminals through Tuesday morning. KMIV and KACY look to
continue to have visibility reductions through Tuesday. Showers
will also be moving through Tuesday with some isolated
thunderstorms. After 12-16Z, most terminals should trend drier
with just a lingering shower aside from KMIV and KACY. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Thursday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Friday...VFR to start but restrictions possible later in the day as
a cold front approaches with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms moving in.

Friday Night through Saturday...Restrictions likely (60-70%)
with low clouds and showers around.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Friday...No marine headlines expected.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Guzzo/Hoeflich
MARINE...Guzzo/Hoeflich