Milton, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

440
FXUS61 KPHI 021303
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
903 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through
today. A warm front will lift north across the area tonight as a
strong low tracks through Quebec on Thursday. The front will
return on Friday as a cold front, slowly dropping south of the
area by Friday night. Several waves of low pressure will ride
along this boundary causing it to fluctuate north and south
through the weekend yielding unsettled weather conditions. Cool
and dry high pressure will return by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:00 AM...Little changes made to the forecast with the late
morning update. Forecast remains on track.

Cool and dry conditions will continue today. Increasing clouds
through the day, along with a strengthening southeasterly
breeze. A few showers possible this evening and tonight, but
largely dry for most areas along with more mild temperatures.

Upper ridging will return today into tonight. At the surface,
cold and dry Canadian high pressure will depart as the day
progresses. A warm front will return north through the area
overnight.

The modified Canadian airmass from the departing high pressure
will be advecting in off the cold ocean today with a southeast
breeze increasing to 10-15 mph by this afternoon, with gusts up
to 25 mph. This pattern won`t bring any surface "warm"
advection to our area during the day despite upper level warm
advection beginning, so temperatures will actually end up being
near to a few degrees cooler than Tuesday in most areas.
Increasing clouds throughout the day won`t help either. Low
level warm advection won`t really begin until late afternoon or
evening, when the warm front will finally start lifting north
through the area as winds shift more southerly overnight.

Highs today are mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Closer to
60 degrees for interior Delmarva. Temperatures won`t fall much
this evening given the considerable cloudiness and winds
(evening lows mainly in the 40s to near 50 degrees), and will
start rising into the 50s after midnight in most areas.

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this evening,
and again after midnight. The potential evening activity will be
associated with the initial warm advection ramping up, but this
will be isolated to scattered in nature at most and
insignificant with regards to any measurable rainfall. Late
tonight and toward dawn Thursday, it appears chances are
increasing for the decaying upstream QLCS from the southern
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will reach our region. Obviously a
lot of uncertainty with this, as it will be dependent on
convective evolution upstream. Long story short, PoPs were
increased late in the night and early Thursday morning. No
hazards are anticipated with this activity early Thursday
morning, mainly just rumbles of thunder, gusty winds, small
hail, and brief heavy downpours possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front will be slowly lifting northward across the region
at the start of Thursday, so while the day likely starts off wet
and murky, expect some rapid afternoon improvements, perhaps
not at all unlike what we saw Monday, with temps soaring back
into the 70s with some spots possibly touching 80. This will set
the stage for another round of showers and thunderstorms late
in the day into the evening as a wave passes to the north and
drags a cold front back into the region, but right forcing and
instability don`t look especially great so only a marginal risk
is outlooked for the region. Lows Thursday night should range
from the 40s Poconos to the 60s Delmarva. The front slips back
to the south on Friday, with cooling temps and showers gradually
ending. Highs Friday will be mostly in the 60s as cooler air
drains back south into the region. We`ll start out mainly dry
Friday evening as high pressure from the north briefly pushes
in, but by late Friday night. Lows will range from the 40s north
to 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Wave of low pressure passes mostly to the north Saturday, but
the stalled front to the south will be hard to budge, so
expecting highs in the 50s north, 60s south with some rain and
drizzle at times, especially in the morning. Warm front should
make better progress Saturday night as another, stronger low
approaches from the west, with lows 40s north ranging to 60s
south. Sunday looks like another day like Monday/Thursday with
warm air surging northward ahead of the aforementioned next
system. Another severe weather opportunity, though right now
dynamics and instability again don`t look too great, so not
highlighting it much yet. Should manage the 70s for most of the
region again. Bottom then drops out behind that system as that
cold front brings a surge of cooler air, followed by a
secondary surge of arctic air for Tuesday, resulting highs
struggling to reach 60 Monday and struggling to reach 50 on
Tuesday, with widespread freezing conditions possible by Tuesday
night. Any chance of precip looks to end with the first front
pushing southeast of the area by midday Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Ceilings increasing in coverage and lowering
through the day. A few showers possible after 21Z, mainly north
of PHL, though any restrictions unlikely with this activity.
East winds 5-10 kts early, shifting southeast and increasing to
10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts by 18Z. High confidence in
prevailing conditions.

Tonight...MVFR ceilings developing near 03Z, then lowering
overnight. Some IFR ceilings possible near and especially north
of I-95 by 09Z. Southeast winds near 5-10 kts, shifting south by
06Z. LLWS developing after 06Z, with 2kft winds increasing to
near 40 kts. A few showers possible after 06Z, but low
confidence on that. MVFR visibility possible in fog/drizzle for
TTN/RDG/ABE after 06Z as well. High confidence in development
of MVFR ceilings and winds, lower confidence on any IFR
occurring.

Outlook...

Low clouds, drizzle, and rain early on Thursday with IFR at
times giving way to improvements by afternoon, though scattered
thunderstorms possible later in the day and at night may bring
returns of IFR conditions. Slow improvement likely Friday with
VFR more likely by late in the day and during the evening, but
IFR may return late at night into Saturday with rain possible.
Improvements may then return late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through today. Winds shifting east to
southeast, increasing to 15-20 kts. Seas 3-4 feet. Fair
weather.

Winds and seas will continue to build some into tonight,
especially after midnight. Winds shifting southerly overnight,
with gusts near 25 kts developing and seas building to near 5
feet across the Atlantic coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for tonight (and into Thursday) for the
Atlantic coastal waters. The advisory was expanded to include
Delaware Bay for Thursday, as nearshore gusts will likely reach
near 25 kts.

Outlook...

Widespread SCA winds and seas likely Thursday with a few gale
force wind gusts possible on the ocean. Conditions subside back
below SCA levels by late Thursday night and no headlines
currently anticipated Friday through Saturday. Conditions then
start to deteriorate with increasing winds late Saturday night,
with SCA likely to return Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ452>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...DeSilva/RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...RCM/Staarmann