Edgemoor, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

635
FXUS61 KPHI 051755
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
155 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence increased in enhanced risk for fire spread on
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Increasing concern in fire weather conditions Monday and
especially Tuesday as a dry airmass moves overhead. Cannot rule
out the need for a Red Flag Warning on Tuesday.

2...Chilly temperatures Wednesday morning and Thursday
morning may affect the beginning of the growing season, where the
growing season is currently active.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing concern in fire weather conditions Monday
and especially Tuesday as a dry airmass moves overhead. Cannot rule
out the need for a Red Flag Warning on Tuesday.

A period of fire weather conditions is possible on Monday, but more
so on Tuesday as a dry airmass infiltrates the area. MinRH values
will be in the 30-40% range across much of the area for Monday
afternoon with westerly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20-25
mph. By Tuesday morning, a secondary cold front is forecast to pass
through the region. This will cause dew points to fall into the
teens as a very dry airmass moves overhead. MinRH values will be in
the 20-30% range with northwest winds around 15-25 mph and gusts up
to 30-35 mph.

At this time, these conditions do not meet Red Flag Warning criteria
on Monday, but will be close on Tuesday. We will be in contact
with our partners at a later time to determine if a SPS is
warranted and if a Red Flag Warning is needed for Tuesday. While
there is high confidence in meteorological conditions being
present for a Red Flag Warning, rainfall today up to half an
inch may keep fuel moistures high enough on the ground to be
the limiting factor. This will depend on what our fire weather
partners are seeing on the ground. While we are getting some
rain today, most of the area remains in some form of a drought.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly temperatures Wednesday morning and Thursday
morning may affect the beginning of the growing season, where the
growing season is currently active.

Strong Canadian 1040 mb high pressure will settle over New York
State on Wednesday morning before shifting off the New England coast
by Thursday morning. In wake of a cold front on Tuesday, a
reinforcing shot of cold, dry air will arrive Tuesday night and
linger into Wednesday night. Low temperatures will fall into the low
to mid 20s to low to mid 30s for most locales, with teens in the
Poconos by Wednesday morning. The growing season is currently active
over Delmarva with the exception of New Castle County, DE. There is
a decent chance (50-60%) for temperatures at or below freezing on
Wednesday morning over Delmarva as skies will be clear and winds
light. With a dry airmass overhead though, frost is not really
expected even with such cold temperatures. Will need to eventually
decide if a Freeze Warning is needed for areas where the growing
season is active. The growing season does not expand to a more
widespread area until April 11.

Temperatures will be somewhat similar for Thursday morning, but with
the high shifting offshore, lows should be a few degrees warmer than
Wednesday. With closer dew point depressions expected for Thursday
morning, suppose more patchy frost is possible. May need a Frost
Advisory on Thursday morning but there is rather high confidence in
Wednesday morning being the coldest of this stretch.

A return to more normal temperatures well above freezing comes by
Friday morning, continuing at least through the weekend.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon... Showers and and a few tstms crossing the area
attm. CIGs/VSBYs haven`t lowered too much with the line with
mainly MVFR and a couple short periods of lower. Conditions will
improve back to VFR from N/W to S/E this afternoon. Winds West
to Northwest at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts at times.
Moderate confidence.

.Tonight... Improving back to VFR from NW sites to SE sites this
evening. Decreasing clouds. VFR remains overnight. West to Northwest
winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts then diminishing
after 03Z/04Z/ Medium/high confid.

.Monday... VFR conditions expected with mostly clear skies early
then partly cloudy for the afternoon. Winds will generally be West
at around 10 knots with some gusts to around 20 knots by late
morning and into the afternoon. High confid.


Outlook...

Monday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday...VFR. Wind gusts out of the northwest around 25 to 30 kt.

Tuesday Night through Friday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain up following a cold front passage into
the evening. West winds will become 10 to 15 kts with gusts 25 knots
at times. SCA conditions in the ocean but just below SCA for
Delaware Bay. We`ll continue the marine flags as they are attm.
Showers into the early evening then Fair.

Outlook...

Monday Night...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday...SCA conditions likely (70-80%) as wind gusts out of the
northwest will be around 25 to 30 kt.

Tuesday Night through Friday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich/OHara
MARINE...Hoeflich/OHara