Storrs, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

156
FXUS61 KBOX 112315
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
715 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm overall through Friday with breezier conditions
Thursday. Although Friday looks to be dry and seasonably mild, we then enter
into a cloudy and rather unsettled weather pattern with daily shower
or thunderstorm chances, with a weak frontal boundary nearby to
Southern New England. Timing and areal coverage details are still
uncertain at this time. Temperatures then trend cooler than normal,
with high temperatures running some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than
normal this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and mild tonight

Clear skies expected with W to SW flow keeping things dry across the
region tonight. Lows expected to primarily be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Warm and dry with breezy conditions Thursday

* Dry heading into Friday morning

A cold front will move through New England during the afternoon
hours and flow aloft shifts more westerly. Some of the high-res
guidance is hinting at some isolated showers over CT into parts of
southern RI, but the chances remain very low with conditions
unfavorable for shower development (and even then, chances continue
to trend down with the latest guidance). Height rises aloft and
building surface high pressure across southern New England Thursday
into Friday morning will help keep the region dry. Winds may gust to
20-30 mph during the day with a well mixed boundary layer. Gusts to
30 mph would be more likely in the higher terrain, but occasional
higher gusts in those areas could also occur. Westerly winds
expected to prevail through the day with highs in the upper 70s up
to the mid 80s.

Dry conditions expected to continue heading into tomorrow night with
diminishing winds that shift slightly more to the NW. Lows tomorrow
night expected to be between the mid 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Seasonably mild and generally dry on Friday.

* Unsettled weekend into early next week, and while not necessarily
  hazardous, daily chances for showers and/or thunderstorms will
  exist. Timing and areal coverage details remain lower than
  average.

* High temperatures after Friday then trend cooler than normal
  (around 5-10 degs below normal) for the weekend into early next
  week with seasonable lows.

Details:

Global ensemble means continue to offer a broad WNW flow aloft over
Southern New England, with a wavy, west-to-east low-level thermal
boundary near the vicinity of Southern New England. This boundary
slips southward by Sunday, offering a cooler weather pattern as we
move into early next week.

Overall, this is a generally unsettled weather pattern with daily
chances for at least a threat of some showers. Predictability in
timing and spatial coverage details of shower and t-storm threats
remain lower-than-average, which are sensitive to weak/subtle sub-
synoptic-scale features/triggering mechanisms which are poorly
resolved by the coarser-resolution global ensembles at this time
range. It looks as though Friday remains the driest overall period
with reasonably high confidence, but there will be a threat for
showers or embedded thunderstorms for the subsequent days. Will need
to get into the mesoscale-model range That being said, none of the
day(s) look to feature significant or impactful adverse weather.

Temperatures on Friday are closer to seasonable with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. The remaining portion of the forecast then
offers generally cloudy conditions and an increasingly onshore flow
toward the latter part of the weekend into early next week.
Temperatures then trend cooler than normal on high temps (some 5-10
degrees colder than normal) with seasonable low temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. SW winds gusting in the low 20s kt range early, then become
a sustained SW wind 5-10 kt. Increasing westerly winds aloft
will lead to wind shear concerns across the interior and BOS.

Thursday and Thursday Night: High confidence.

VFR. SW winds 5-10 kt early in the morning become W/WNW 15-20
kt with gusts 25-30 kt starting late morning, gusts then
subside by 00z to around 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Thursday Night: High Confidence.

Persistent SW winds through Thu before shifting more W to NW Thu
night. Speeds 10-20 kt through tonight with some 25 kt gusts
possible Thu over nearshore waters. Seas range from 2-4 ft
across the waters and continue to decrease through the period.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin