Storrs, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

089
FXUS61 KBOX 101736
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
136 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms today with locally heavy downpours. A few
strong storms are possible late today. Dry and warm conditions
return Wednesday and Thursday. It turns somewhat cooler Friday,
then cool and unsettled conditions return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Showers and a few t-storms move through today with locally heavy
  downpours

* Low risk for a strong late day t-storm across western MA/CT

Robust upper low over the Gt Lakes moves NE today with brunt of
shortwave energy sliding to the NW. However, a piece of energy moves
through the region today along with favorable upper level jet
dynamics. Ahead of the upper low an anomalous PWAT plume 1.5 to near
2 inches advects northward into the region. Modest large scale
forcing acting on this moisture will bring scattered showers west to
east across the region this morning into early afternoon. There is
marginal MUCAPE through early afternoon to support a few elevated t-
storms. Given high PWATs, locally heavy downpours are likely but
duration will be limited and hi-res CAMs suggesting coverage of any
heavy rainfall will be limited. Looking at average rainfall of 0.10
to 0.50" with localized 1 inch amounts possible. HREF indicating low
probs (30%) of 3 hr QPF exceeding 1 inch around midday but there is
uncertainty where the best chance of the heaver rainfall will set up.

After 18z, bulk of showers will be moving offshore then will have to
monitor instability trends as CAMs are showing potential for a few
storms developing in the late afternoon/evening in interior MA/CT
ahead of the cold front. Decent mid level drying moves in from the
west after 18z which should allow for some sunshine developing in
the west mid to late afternoon. SREF/HREF showing 50-70% probs of
CAPES greater 500 J/kg developing so potential exists for 500-1000
J/kg of CAPE. Effective shear values 30-40 kt so can`t rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm developing late afternoon and early
evening across western MA/CT if enough instability can be realized.
Machine learning probs are all showing low probs for severe wx
eastern NY and western MA with wind the primary threat. However,
coverage of any strong convection should be limited.

Stratus and patchy fog will be persistent across SNE this morning
with improvement in the afternoon across the interior. Stratus will
linger in the east through the day. Highs will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s, with some mid 70s possible in the CT valley if
sunshine develops. It will be humid as dewpoints climb into the low-
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* An isolated evening t-storm possible interior, then clearing
  overnight

* Warm and dry Wednesday with comfortable humidity

Tonight...

Can`t rule out an isolated evening storm in the interior as the cold
front moves through. Otherwise, stratus and patchy fog near the
coast should clear out overnight as drier air moves in. Lows mostly
in the 50s.

Wednesday...

High pres builds over the mid Atlc region with drier westerly flow
across SNE. This will lead to abundant sunshine and warm temps as
925 mb temps warm to 18-20C. This will support highs into the low-
mid 80s, except upper 70s higher terrain and along the south
coast. Dewpoints will be falling into the 50s so humidity level
will be comfortable.

For south coast beaches, especially over the islands, there will be
an increasing risk of dangerous rip currents as increasing southerly
swell develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Remaining dry and warm on Thursday

* Turning unsettled for Friday into the weekend, but details
  remain highly uncertain

Shortwave passes to the north Thursday morning with zonal flow over
SNE.  That shortwave will drop a cold front south that stalls near
SNE.  Likely wont see any precipitation with this cold front, with
instability staying well south of the cold front and a lack of mid-
level moisture.  High temperatures Thursday should remain in the low
to mid-80s with the cold front stalling and weak mid-level ridging.

Lower-than-normal forecast confidence heading into Friday, as
guidance struggles with weak disturbances passing through the zonal
flow aloft.  The first chance for rain comes Friday morning as
strong mid-level flow converges over SNE.  There is little to no
upper-air support, so it may be difficult to see more than just
increased cloud cover and perhaps some weak showers.  As for the
weekend, guidance is in significant disagreement with rain chances
as the GFS stretches a surface high into the region from the east,
keeping us dry but cool for the weekend.  The Euro and Canadian push
the surface high further offshore, allowing a weak low-pressure
system to exit the southern Great Lakes and move into the region.
Examining the cluster analysis of all members from the GFS, Euro,
and Canadian ensembles reveals that a wetter solution is favored,
with only 14% of the ensemble members predicting a completely dry
forecast. 56% of the ensemble members favor at least some light
precipitation, while 30% indicate heavier precipitation and a
washout.

Regardless of precipitation, temperatures over the weekend will be
on the cooler side, only in the mid-60s to low 70s both Saturday and
Sunday, with mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon...Moderate confidence.

Widespread IFR-LIFR this afternoon with scattered to numerous
showers and embedded t-storms moving across the region through
early afternoon. Gradual improvement to MVFR-VFR in the CT
valley after 20z. A line of thunderstorms exits NY in the
afternoon and may hold together into the CT river valley, but
quickly diminishes thereafter. Light NE winds becoming S-SE this
afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

A few residual showers about early Tuesday evening otherwise
expect a dry night. Ceilings quickly improve through the night
to VFR. Light W winds. Chance for patchy FG/BR in spots.

Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR. WSW-SW wind 10-20 kt.

Wednesday night...High confidence.

VFR. W wind 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

LIFR ceilings and visibility`s likely remain through 04z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

IFR/ low end MVFR today with scattered showers this morning.
Low chance for thunderstorms this evening.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Wednesday: High Confidence.

Variable winds today becoming southerly over south coastal waters
with S-SW winds reaching NE MA waters late today or this evening. W-
SW winds 10-15 tonight and SW 10-20 kt Wednesday. Increasing
southerly swell will result in seas building to 5-6 ft over southern
waters tonight into Wed and SCA was issued.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for MAZ023-024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for RIZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...KJC/KP