New Haven, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

417
FXUS61 KOKX 101122
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary frontal boundary across the region through tonight
eventually shifts farther south heading into the start of the
weekend. High pressure builds east of the waters for the latter half
of this weekend before weakening early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Slight adjustments with POPs to better match observed radar
reflectivity trends. Shower activity mostly across parts of the
eastern section of the region, particularly interior SE
Connecticut. Otherwise, forecast on track.

A frontal boundary is stalled out across the region. Not much
translational movement is expected through today with the front.
Weak waves of low pressure travel along it.

Right rear quadrant of upper level jet is near the region through
today. Mid level positive vorticity advection adds further forcing.

POPs for showers and thunderstorms remain through the day.
Intermittent nature to the convection.

Temperatures today with a slight decrease in 850mb temperatures and
more shower and thunderstorm activity, a cooler but still very humid
day expected.

Added in patchy fog going into early this morning especially in
those areas that had more rain and thereby have more moisture laden
grounds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The convective coverage will be on a downward trend tonight as
forcing decreases with the loss of daytime instability.

Upper level forcing decreases with jet streak moving farther
northeast of the region tonight. Troughing pattern eventually
transitions to more of a ridging pattern.

The frontal boundary weakens at the surface and eventually settles
to the south of the region by the weekend.

The showers and thunderstorms have less coverage Friday and Saturday
and will be driven more by the daytime instability and daytime
troughing as well as low level convergence. The forcing aloft will
be minimal as ridging becomes more apparent.

Daytime temperatures on a warming trend but will be limited as flow
retains more of an easterly component.

Added in patchy fog for late tonight into early Friday morning with
less winds and some radiational cooling allow for more low level
saturation considering the continued humid environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages
- Showers and thunderstorms are a daily concern through
Monday, thanks to a lingering boundary and plenty of moisture from
the onshore flow. Western forecast areas are at the greatest risk,
as daytime heating will boost instability.

- The greatest uncertainty in the forecast period, particularly for
temperatures and PoPs, remains Sunday through Monday. This is
attributed to the varied handling of a weak frontal system by the
ensembles.

- Next week, temperatures are expected to warm up, reaching the mid
80s to around 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. ML
guidance is hinting at a low (10-30%) threat for severe weather that
will need to be monitored, along with a frontal system late in the
week.

No major changes made to the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stationary front remains near the terminals through tonight,
then shifts south of the area on Friday.

MVFR ceilings are possible this morning along with occasional
showers. MVFR likely lingers into the early afternoon at KISP
and may persist for much of the day at KGON. Otherwise, VFR is
expected this afternoon with a shower possible

Have maintained the PROB30 for the NYC metro and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals this afternoon and early evening. Coverage
however may end up more isolated and remain NW of the NYC
terminals. Conditions should then lower to MVFR at most sites
overnight with potential of IFR/LIFR, mainly near the coast.

Winds will be light through the TAF period and remain under 10
kt. Wind direction will vary this morning, but should settle to
a SE-S direction in the afternoon. Light/VRB tonight becomes
ENE-E Friday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR may be off by 1-2 hours this morning.

PROB30 TSRA may not occur this afternoon/evening with any
activity remaining NW of the terminals.

Amendments likely for ceilings/visibilities tonight/early
Friday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday - Sunday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening near and
northwest of the NYC terminals.

Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No hazards are expected outside of thunderstorms as conditions are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Some patchy fog will be
possible into this morning as well as late tonight into early Friday
morning, which could possibly be dense.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Very humid airmass with decreasing atmospheric flow in the short
term. PWATS near 2 inches through tonight.

Minor risk for flash flooding with otherwise poor drainage, urban
and low lying flooding with any thunderstorms in the short term.
Today holds relatively higher chance of these thunderstorms with
more coverage in the forecast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk forecast is moderate both for today and Friday
for the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island due to onshore flow
of near 5-10 kts as well as 3 to 4 ft of 7-8 sec period swell as
well as some smaller onshore long period swell of 1 ft and
11-12 sec period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/99
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/99
HYDROLOGY...JM/99
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM