Kensington, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXUS61 KBOX 150152
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
952 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms again today along with a
low risk for some urban flash flooding. Seasonable temperatures
and lower humidity levels are expected for Friday and Saturday,
although temperatures briefly warm up again for Sunday. After
midweek, our next chance for rain is with a cold front which
looks to move in on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...


Key Messages...

* Drier & less humid overnight with lows mainly in the 60s

Details...

One small area of showers and a few claps of thunder was
impacting mainly western RI just before 10 pm. The activity is
much weaker than the earlier storms that produced severe weather
across parts of southeast MA. The small area of lingering
showers/isolated t-storm across western RI will come to an end
over within the next hour or so. Otherwise...the main story
will be drier and less humid air working into the region behind
the cold front overnight. Lows will bottom out mainly in the
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key messages...

* Cooler temperatures and drier weather Friday

Friday stands to be more tolerable temperature-wise. Afternoon
temps will still be in the low to mid 80s, but dewpoints will be
significantly lower... in the upper 50s to low 60s. The dry
airmass moving in behind the cold front will clear out skies and
bring plenty of sunshine to kick off the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Seasonable temperatures with lower humidity levels Sat

* Warmer and more humid Sunday with chances for
  showers/thunderstorms in afternoon/evening.

* Cooler next week with potential for some scattered showers
  Tues- Thurs in spots.

Saturday:

Surface pressure persists over southern New England Saturday
keeping conditions dry with seasonable temperatures. Highs
temperatures should range in the low to mid 80s. Weak pressure
gradient and high pressure center in the east will support
easterly component winds/localized sea breezes along the east
coastline. This will keep the coastal areas a bit cooler in the
mid-upper 70s.


Sunday:

A shortwave trough in the mid-level flow aloft moves through on
Sunday with an accompanying cold front. Surface winds turn more
southwesterly with brief advection of higher moisture/dewpoint
air into southern New England. Weak warm advection will bring
temperatures into the mid-upper 80s with elevated humidity
levels making it feel like low 90s. Daytime heating, moisture,
and an approaching front/shortwave should support development of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance show at least marginal instability in place with some
uncertainty on how far east the instability axis extends into
southern New England. Upper level forcing appears to be limited
overall, so coverage will be more likely scattered in nature.
Overall there will be low chances (25-40%) for afternoon-early
evening showers and thunderstorms, with better chances further
west.

Next Week:

The cold front will push through the region overnight Sunday
into early Monday bringing in a cool airmass to start the week.
Ensemble guidance shows the airmass to be below normal with
850mb temperatures 10-12C. This will bring much cooler highs in
the 70s, perhaps a few 80s in the CT Valley. Flow aloft will be
generally weak troughing with a weak shortwave or two moving
through during the week. This may bring weak isolated to
scattered showers. Given fairly weak forcing and uncertainty in
timing of the waves this far out, timing of precipitation is low
confidence still. Although there seems to be chunks of members
showing higher probabilities for seeing showers
Tuesday/Wednesday and potentially into Thursday. Confidence
should increase as we get closer, but overall not expecting any
significant rainfall with these weaker shortwaves.

Still very far away, but overall activity in the tropics has
seen an uptick in the past few weeks. We continue to monitor for
impacts from tropical system Erin as it recurves N/NE`ward (in
some fashion) late next week. At this point, any impact will be
offshore (marine, rip currents, surf). Again, this will continue
to be monitored as we get closer and more confident/detailed
information will become available.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

00z TAF Update:

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Extent of stratus.

The remaining line of showers and thunderstorms push southward
across southeastern MA and RI from 00-02z. VFR for most
terminals with stratus/fog developing for the Cape/Islands. Low
probability for low clouds to extend north into BOS overnight.
Messaged as a SCT015 due to lower confidence.

Friday...High confidence.

VFR for most of the terminals. Will likely be slow to scatter
out for the Cape/Islands in the morning, but they may see
periods of scattered by the afternoon. NE winds 5-12 kts. Few
gusts to 18 kts possible for BOS.

Friday Night...High Confidence.
Light SE winds overnight with potential for low stratus across
southern New England.


KBOS terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low probability for
low clouds to extend north into BOS overnight. Messaged as a
SCT015 due to lower confidence.


KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday:

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the period.

Winds increase out of the southwest to 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon with a slight chance for an afternoon/evening
thunderstorm. Storms should diminish shortly after moving out
over the waters if they make it that far.

Seas remain in the 2-3 foot range. A cold front will cross the
coastal waters late tomorrow afternoon resulting in a wind shift
to the northwest. Overall quiet conditions over the marine
zones for the foreseeable future.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McMinn/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...KJC/McMinn
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...KJC/McMinn/Mensch
MARINE...McMinn