Pueblo West, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS65 KPUB 111733
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage this
  afternoon, with gusty outflow winds possible from any
  organized storms.

- At and above normal temperatures through the end of the work
  week, with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
  some of which could be strong across the plains.

- A drying trend with above normal temperatures for the weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Today: Midweek brings another day of afternoon showers and storms to
portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Messy and
relatively weak northwest flow will be in place over the region.
While major forcing is not expected, diurnal upsloping is
anticipated to materialize during the afternoon hours. This terrain
induced upsloping, along with moisture in place, will allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to blossom along the higher
terrain during the early afternoon hours. While flow is weak, some
showers and storms are expected to push off the terrain and across
the valleys and immediate plains areas. Greatest concerns with any
thunderstorms will be lightning and gusty outflow winds around 40-50
mph given high storm bases and large T/Td spreads leading to decent
DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Beyond all of that, relatively light winds
are expected outside of any storm outflows, with clear skies early
becoming partly to mostly cloudy by late afternoon as showers and
storms develop. Looking at temperatures, Wednesday brings another
warm day for many, with above seasonal temperatures expected across
the area with the plains warming into the mid 80s to low 90s, the
valleys into the mid 70s to low 80s, and the mountains into the 50s
to 70s.

Tonight: Wednesday night starts off with active weather for portions
of south central and southeastern Colorado, though will become
quieter by the overnight hours. A ridge of high pressure will start
to push over the area during this timeframe. Initially, showers and
storms are anticipated to be ongoing during the early evening hours
as diurnal upsloping and instability remain in place. However, with
the increasing subsidence from the ridge, and decreasing diurnal
upsloping and instability, showers and storms are expected to start
dissipating by mid to late evening, with dry conditions then
prevailing during the overnight hours. Outside of that, light winds
will persist into Thursday morning, with afternoon cloud cover
slowly lessening through the evening and early overnight hours. As
for temperatures, with light winds and clearing skies, much of the
area will fall to around seasonal low temperatures, with the plains
dropping into the 50s, the valleys into the 40s, and the mountains
into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Thursday...Modest westerly flow aloft remains progged across the
region as latest model data continues to indicate a weak embedded
short wave translating through the stronger flow across the Northern
Tier. This said wave looks to bring an increase in shower and
thunderstorm coverage across the region, with scattered convection
developing across the higher terrain late Thursday morning and early
afternoon. Showers and storms spread east across the adjacent plains
through the afternoon and into the southeast plains through the
early evening. Sounding data indicates generally inverted v profiles
which supports gusty outflow winds associated with these passing
storms, especially across the southeast plains where the best cape
and dcape could help produce a few marginally severe storms.
Temperatures on Thursday will continue to be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, into the 70s
to low 80s for the high valleys and in the 60s and 70s across the
higher terrain.

For Friday...generally weak westerly flow continues across the
Rockies, with another wave translating across the Northern Tier
supporting isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection.
Again, sounding profiles support higher based storms, save for the
far eastern plains, where enough low level moisture and just enough
shear may be in place to support stronger storms late Friday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Friday to be similar to
previous days with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the
plains, into the 70s to low 80s for the high valleys and in the 60s
and 70s across the higher terrain.

Saturday-Tuesday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build back
across the Rockies for the weekend. Operational and ensemble model
data support much drier air moving across the region within
generally weak southwest flow aloft across the region. This will
lead to decreasing chances of diurnal showers and storms through the
weekend, with any storms that can develop being higher based.
Temperatures into early next week to remain above seasonal norms
with highs the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Plains, and in the
60s to low 80s across the higher terrain, with lows in the 50s to
lower 60s across the plains and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the
higher terrain. Models then continue to differ on the location and
amplitude of an upper trough trying to break down the ridge into the
middle of next week, leading to uncertainty in temperatures and
precipitation chances. NBM data does support a slow decrease in
temperatures and a slight uptick in convection for the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
across the higher terrain this afternoon by 18z and persist through
approx. 02z, potentially affecting KALS and KCOS. Otherwise, VFR
conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24
hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

KCOS: PROB30 maintained for -SHRA and variable gusts to around 30
kts from 21z-01z. Increasing mid and high level cloudiness through
06z tonight, then clearing.

KPUB: TEMPO from 23z-03z to try and capture expected outflow from mt
convection, with predominant NW direction expected. Otherwise,
increasing mid and high level cloudiness through 06z tonight,
then clearing.

KALS: PROB30 maintained for -TSRA and variable gusts to around 30
kts from 21z-02z. Increasing mid and high level cloudiness through
06z tonight, then clearing. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE