Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

525
FXUS65 KGJT 021813
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1213 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool conditions continue today and Thursday with
  afternoon highs 10-15 degrees below climatology.

- Mountain snow returns late Wednesday night and Thursday with 3
  to 5 inches of new snow expected for area peaks.

- Unsettled weather is expected to continue through the weekend,
  with more snow expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Temperatures are beginning to rise across the region this
morning, therefore the Freeze Warning has been allowed to
expire. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for the desert valleys
tonight through tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 434 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Clear and cold conditions in the wake of a spring cold front have
pushed area temperatures well below freezing this morning. Skies
across the CWA have cleared for the most part, with some cloud cover
hung up along the west side of the Divide, where a few snow showers
have lingered overnight. Winter Weather Advisories have been
cancelled, as only scattered flurries remain along the Divide. A
Freeze Watch remains in place for Thursday morning for our desert
valleys.

A weak surface low spins up this afternoon and lifts into the Four
Corners this evening. Cloud cover ahead of this feature will invade
today and areas south of I-70 will see mostly cloudy skies by
afternoon, with thinner cloud cover to the north. Cold air and muted
sunshine will keep afternoon highs 10-15 degrees below April
climatology today. This trend will only marginally improve Thursday
afternoon. The lifting low will tap some Pacific moisture this
evening and overnight, when another round of mountain snow showers
is expected to develop. Of note this forecast package, was an uptick
in moisture across southeast Utah. The Abajos and La Sals stand to
accumulate 3-5 inches of new snow tonight and Thursday. A few
favored aspects there will see some higher amounts. Did not issue
any highlights, as confidence in a spring storm`s productivity and
marginal amounts left me on the pessimistic side this morning. The
same goes for the San Juans, where another round of measurable snow
will bring accumulations to the high country. Snow rates will peak
overnight tonight there, but rates in the 0.5" per hour range don`t
inspire confidence in the need for another batch of highlights. Snow
showers will spread northward early Thursday as the upper trough
begins to eject the wave across the Rockies. This will deliver
measurable snow to the Grand Mesa, Central Mountain corridor, and
north to the Flat Tops and Park Range by Thursday afternoon.
Accumulations from tonight through Thursday night will range from 3
to 5 inches for mountain zones south of I-70, and only 2-4 inches
north of there.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

A longwave trough will be stationed over the western CONUS
Thursday into the weekend. Shortwaves rotating around this
trough will keep weather conditions unsettled, and a colder
airmass in place will result in accumulating mountain snow
through Sunday. With the base of the trough and the southern
stream storm track settled over Arizona and New Mexico, the
southern mountains will be most favored to see precipitation
during this period, followed by the central mountains. The first
wave in this train swings through Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing another 4-8 inches to the San Juans, and 2-5 inches
over the central mountain ranges. As this is ongoing, another
wave of energy drops into the base of the trough, eventually
forming a closed low over southern Arizona. This low will be a
slow mover, lingering in the Southwest through Sunday before
finally moving toward the Southern Plains. In return, the
central and especially southern Colorado mountains will see
several additional inches of snow daily as the low and
orographic lift continue to produce mountain snow and valley
rain showers. Temperatures will remain below normal as well,
with highs 8-12 degrees below normal through the end of the
week. As the closed low begins weaken and track east,
temperatures will begin to warm Saturday, reaching near normal
by Sunday. High pressure is expected to build in for early next
week, with highs climbing above normal once more.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Instability may lead to snow showers at KHDN and KTEX this
afternoon, otherwise TAF sites can expect VFR conditions through
06Z/Thur. A storm lifting from the southwest will bring
lowering clouds and snow shower chances beginning at 06Z/Thur at
KDRO and KTEX, between 09Z and 12Z/Thur for KTEX and KGUC, and
after 12Z/Thur at KMTJ, KGJT and KCNY. Should it occur, showers
will result in MVFR visibility with a lower potential for IFR
conditions and ceilings below ILS breakpoints for most impacted
airfields. Meanwhile, the sites farthest north, KVEL and KHDN
are expected to maintain VFR conditions. Winds will be light
throughout the next 24 hours.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     COZ006.
UT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     UTZ022-027.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BGB
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...NL