Ken Caryl, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

579
FXUS65 KBOU 222030
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
130 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions near the base of the foothills
  through Monday afternoon, with record warmth.

- Warm and dry conditions expected through Christmas Day, with
  gustier winds for the high country/foothills on Christmas.

- Light to locally moderate mountain snow expected Friday into
  Saturday, favoring the Park Range.

- Cooler Saturday through Monday with temperatures falling closer to
  seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 105 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Upper-level ridging and compressional warming are leading to
exceptionally warm temperatures across the plains and urban
corridor in particular. The thermometer has shot up into the upper
70`s across the Denver metro, with Denver International Airport
already registering a high of 76F so far, the second warmest
December temperature on record, and a full 6 degrees above our
previous daily record for Dec 22nd. Tied to these warm
temperatures, it`s no surprise humidity remains in the single
digits and lower teens across much of the urban corridor and lower
foothills, with west winds gusting 30-60 mph sustaining fairly
widespread Red Flag conditions. The strongest of the winds will
be through the next 2-3 hours before gusty conditions begin to
quickly recede from the lower elevations and into the higher
terrain.

Fortunately, we`ll lose most of the wind component for Tuesday as
the jet edges slightly northward and pressure gradients weaken.
Otherwise there will be little change in the synoptic pattern as
we remain under the influence of the ridge axis centered to our
east. We do look to increase our high cloud cover which should
serve to limit the potential warming and keep us a few degrees
cooler than today, but high will nonetheless scrape 70F in our
warmest locations in/around the Denver metro.

It`s much the same story heading into Wednesday and Thursday, with
continued warm and dry conditions prevailing across the region.
The eastward movement of the SW-NE oriented jet on Christmas Day
will provide another compressional warming boost to plains and
urban corridor temperatures, likely pushing highs to or slightly
above daily record territory once more. The high country and
foothills will see a period of stronger winds Thursday-Friday with
peak gusts ~50-65 mph, though not nearly as strong nor as
widespread downwind as with recent events. Will monitor for areas
of elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, however
humidity levels shouldn`t be quite as low.

For the mountains, ensembles have generally trended away from much
Christmas Day precipitation, instead favoring the Friday through
Saturday period when there`s better alignment as far as the
deepest moisture. Nonetheless, we`re still talking about southwest
flow and relatively modest moisture amounts, which buffers
accumulation potential for many of our mountains, especially
outside of the Park/Gore Ranges. On the front end of this system,
the high valleys are still progged to be rather warm, so could
see rain mix in initially. Precipitation chances aren`t great east
of the mountains (~25% chance or less for light amounts Saturday),
although regardless we`ll see a notable cooldown, with
temperatures falling back close to seasonal normals by Sunday.

Ensemble guidance generally favors a return to drier conditions to
start the week along with milder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1030 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR to prevail through tonight and Tuesday with varying amounts
of high clouds. Biggest forecast challenge will be winds through
early evening, 02Z. Gusty west winds to 30 knots will be possible
through 02Z. However, models don`t show a "clean" westerly flow.
There are wind eddies and channels of stronger west winds, leading
to low confidence in wind direction through early evening. Winds
eventually settle a southerly direction and remain southerly into
Tuesday morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ214>216-
238-239-241.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...12