Grand Junction, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

806
FXUS65 KGJT 030553
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1153 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to run 10-15 degrees below normal through
  tomorrow, before a very slow warm up kicks in for the weekend
  and beyond.

- Mountain snow and valley rain return tonight through Thursday
  night, with 4-8 inches expected for the southern San Juans, La
  Sals and Abajos, with lesser amounts further north.

- Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, with a few more
  rounds of mountain snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A transient ridge over the area this morning has allowed for
increased sunshine, although temperatures remain well below normal
thanks to the much colder airmass in place. Highs this afternoon
will run a solid 10-15 degrees below normal, with the desert valleys
in the low to mid 50s, and the mountain towns reaching the upper 20s
to low 30s. Convective rain and snow showers have formed over the
terrain this afternoon as moisture aloft increases ahead of the next
system. These showers aren`t expected to be overly impactful, with
any snow accumulations confined to the higher elevations, and those
accumulations being up to an inch at best. Lows tonight will once
again drop below freezing, necessitating another round of Freeze
Warnings for the Grand Valley in Colorado, and the Grand Flat and
southeast Utah valleys in Utah. That said, increasing clouds tonight
will moderate how cold we get, with lows expected to be more
borderline. While these clouds will keep lows warmer tonight, they
will keep highs cooler tomorrow, with another day of temperatures
running 10-15 degrees below normal.

Clouds and more widespread shower activity will be on the increase
this evening as the next wave swings through the base of the
longwave trough and up toward the Four Corners. With associated
southerly to southwesterly flow aloft, this system will strongly
favor the southern half of eastern Utah and western Colorado. The
higher elevations will see all snow, with the La Sals, Abajos, and
southern San Juans expecting 4-8 inches by Thursday night. The
southern valleys will see a mix of rain and snow, with periods of
all snow tonight, and a trace to 2 inches possible by Thursday
night. Further north, the central mountains are looking at 3-6
inches of snow, and the higher terrain north of I-70 expecting 1-3
inches of snow. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the
southern San Juans, and for the La Sal and Abajo mountains above
7500 feet.

As the precipitation lifts north, rain and snow will spread across
the central and northern valleys through the day Thursday. Some
stronger convective showers, and even some thunderstorms, could form
during the afternoon hours. The impulse driving this will eject east
into the Plains tomorrow night, with shower activity finally
starting to taper off. Skies will start to gradually clear Thursday
night into Friday, with radiational cooling trying to kick in.
Subfreezing lows are in the forecast for the desert valleys once
again Friday morning, and may require another round of Freeze
warnings in the near future.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The broad, split trough of low pressure aloft lingers over the West
on Friday, then gradually moves east of the forecast area on
Saturday. Beneath the col between the northern and southern streams,
lingering moisture and instability will lead to scattered to
numerous showers, especially over higher terrain during the
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible which will lead to
local bursts of heavy snow and gusty outflow winds.
This activity decreases Friday night as drying and subsidence arrive
on the western flank of the low as the trough axis shifts east of
the Continental Divide. However, return flow on the western flank of
a cold front sweeping southward along the eastern Colorado plains
will regenerate showers over the central Colorado and San Juan
Mountains on Saturday. This activity will diminish on Saturday night
with only isolated/low end scattered showers lingering over the
extreme southeast San Juan Mountains by sunrise Sunday. Drying
continues Sunday into Monday as a high pressure ridge develops over
the Rockies. Models indicated a low amplitude short wave trough
undercuts the ridge on Tuesday bringing the potential for showers.
Models in fair agreement so unclear how much coverage and
precipitation can be expected.

Temperatures are expected to continue running cooler than normal
through Saturday, recovering to near normal Sunday, before the
warming trend lifts temperatures to close to 10 degrees above normal
on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Aviation conditions will continue to erode towards breakpoint
conditions tonight. Snow showers, as well as low ceilings and
visibility will begin to impact mountain terminals of southwest
Colorado by daybreak. These conditions will spread northward
through the morning, reaching KEGE and KASE by mid day. This
will continue through this TAF period. Some improvement is
expected Thursday evening, as precipitation tapers, but low
ceilings will likely hang on the terrain through this TAF period
and beyond.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Thursday night for
     COZ019.
UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Thursday for UTZ022-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Thursday night for
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT