Westlake Village, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

064
FXUS66 KLOX 272056
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
156 PM PDT Sun Apr 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...27/411 AM.

It will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool today with a slight
chance of lingering showers. There will be less in the way of
cloudiness Monday and especially on Tuesday, with a warming
trend. Highs should be near to slightly above normal in many areas
by Tuesday. A few degrees of cooling is likely Wednesday, with
minor day to day changes in temperatures for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...27/156 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, cyclonic flow will persist over the
area through Monday then a weak ridge will move overhead on
Tuesday before another weak trough develops on Wednesday. Near the
surface, moderate onshore flow to the east and weak northerly
offshore flow will persist through Tuesday with an increase in the
onshore gradients on Wednesday.

Forecast-wise, no significant issues are expected through the
short term period. With cyclonic flow and deep moist layer in
place, partly to mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of light
showers will continue through this evening. Overnight, the skies
will clear and are expected to remain mostly clear through
Tuesday. However by Tuesday night, the increase in onshore flow
and decreasing H5 heights will allow for the marine layer stratus
and fog to return to the coastal plain (and possibly some of the
lower coastal valleys) with some increase in high level clouds as
the weak upper trough develops.

As for winds, the developing northerly offshore gradients will
generate some gusty northerly winds across the Santa Ynez range
through the period. Based on forecast gradients and high
resolution models, best chances for widespread advisory-level
winds looks to be Monday evening across the western Santa Ynez
Range. As for the onshore flow to the east, any advisory-level
southwesterly winds across the mountains/deserts should remain
very localized through Tuesday. However with the increase in
onshore gradients on Wednesday, there may be some more widespread
advisory-level southwesterly winds across the mountains and
deserts.

Finally for temperatures, a warming trend can be expected through
Tuesday for all areas with rising thicknesses/H5 heights and
mostly clear skies. However on Wednesday, the combination of the
upper level trough and increase marine influence will bring
several degrees of cooling to all areas.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...27/156 PM.

For the extended, a somewhat unsettled pattern can be expected for
the area. On Thursday, a weak upper low will develop over the area
with a much stronger/colder low impacting the area on Saturday and
Sunday. As expected, models have some differences in the details,
but either model indicates rather unsettled weather for early May.

For Thursday, the weak upper low should not be too much of an
issue. Afternoon temperatures will hover around seasonal normals.
Onshore gradients will continue to produce night and morning low
clouds and fog across the coastal plain and lower coastal valleys.

On Friday, will anticipate conditions fairly similar to Thursday.
However for Saturday and Sunday, as the upper low drops southward
across the area, cooler and cloudier conditions are anticipated.
Based on both deterministic and ensemble data, there will be the
chance for some showers just about anywhere Saturday/Sunday and
there could even be the possibility of some thunderstorms. One
caveat to this pattern is the fact that models do not handle upper
lows over Southern CA very well in the early Spring. So, the
forecast could take a drier or wetter turn over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1844Z.

At 1804Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. Scattered light
showers at KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX thru around 20Z Sun. MVFR to VFR
conds and several clouds decks at times expected thru fcst pd.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN030-050 likely through much
of the period. There is a 15% chance of east wind component
reaching 8 kts from 10Z to 18Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of
-SHRA through Sun afternoon. BKN030-050 likely through much of
the fcst pd.

&&

.MARINE...27/156 PM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

For the Outer Waters, widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds are likely this afternoon through at least Tuesday night.
However, there may be a brief lull in SCA level winds Monday
morning in PZZ670. There is a 20-40% chance of SCA level winds
Wednesday, highest over the northern waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, SCA winds are possible
during the afternoon/evening hours today through Tuesday (50-80%
chance), with lowest chances on Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is an 80%
chance of SCA level winds across the SBA Channel and a 40-50%
chance for NW portions of PZZ655 today. There is a 50-60% chance
of SCA level winds for western portions of SBA Channel Monday
afternoon/evening, with much lower chances Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Seas are generally expected to remain below SCA levels through
the work week. However, seas could approach SCA Criteria at times
across far western portions of the Outer Waters through Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
      for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Black/Lund
MARINE...Black/Lund
SYNOPSIS...DB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox