Toms Place, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

876
FXUS65 KREV 121845
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1145 AM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dangerous heat will persist through Tuesday, with widespread
  Moderate to Major HeatRisk across lower areas of western Nevada
  and northeast California.

* Plan on a low possibility (5-10% chance) for isolated, high-based
  thunderstorms through the weekend, with increasing chances for
  Monday and Tuesday.

* Hot, dry conditions will marginally subside mid-late next week
  with increasing southwest to west winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Hot/Hazy Weekend into Next Week: High pressure will be the primary
contributor to the weather this weekend into early next week. Plan
on well above normal temperatures with many areas exceeding 100
degrees for the lower elevations, especially Sunday and Monday.
For the Sierra communities, it will be pretty hot too with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Temperatures won`t back off much
overnight either with lows in the urban areas and valleys
remaining quite warm. Don`t plan on much heat relief during the
nighttime and take precautions to avoid the heat during the day.
See the Heat Advisory for more details. Haze and upper level smoke
will stick around as well, so be sure to keep an eye on the air
quality at airnow.gov.

Thunderstorm Potential: With the hot temperatures, it`s no surprise
that the storm potential `pops` back into the equation. Daytime
surface heating will promote unstable conditions at the surface and
even a sliver of moisture could allow for a storm or two to arise.
This morning`s sounding shows a decent amount of moisture in the
vicinity airmass with PW value of 0.69 inch, which is in the 75th
percentile of sounding climatology for mid July. So again, the
potential doesn`t look incredible, but can`t rule out a few brief
afternoon storms today and Sunday with better chances by Monday
and Tuesday as high pressure recedes and a Pac NW trough edges
into the region.

"Cooler" conditions and Winds Return: Temperatures will start to
back off a touch by late Tuesday and Wednesday as a Pac NW trough
sags southward into the Sierra and northwest NV. This pattern shift
will bring cooling aloft and a gradual increase in mid-level
moisture. We will see the thunderstorm chances (10-20%) increase
across the Sierra, northeast California, and western Nevada
beginning Wednesday. This shift from high pressure to the trough
will also allow for increasing W-SW flow across the region. From
Tuesday onward, southwest to west afternoon winds will approach
gusts of 2030 mph.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail through the weekend along with light winds
and typical afternoon W-SW wind gusts up to 20 kts. Afternoon
cumulus buildups are expected today and Sunday, with a 5-10% chance
of isolated, thunderstorms each day between 21- 03Z, primarily along
the Sierra crest and nearby higher terrain. Primary storm concerns
will be brief outflow gusts and localized turbulence.

The hot temperatures may produce density altitude concerns,
especially at Sierra terminals such as KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH.

Slantwise visibility reductions remain possible with haze from
wildfires in northern California and southern Oregon.

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-003>005.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ070-071.

&&

$$