Toms Place, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS65 KREV 081905
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1205 PM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat builds into early next week. Moderate HeatRisk for most lower
  valleys, with isolated Major pockets.

* Low-end thunderstorm chances return Tuesday through Thursday. 5
  to 10% eastern Sierra and 5% elsewhere.

* Breezy to gusty winds mid-to-late week with a cooling trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A trough moving into the northern Plains is clearing the way for a
broad subtropical ridge to build inland from the eastern Pacific.
500 mb heights climb into the 592-596 dm range over California and
Nevada through Monday, centered just offshore of southern
California. The ridge axis then slides east into the Desert
Southwest by midweek as a Pacific Northwest trough lowers heights
over the Sierra and western Nevada. This shift knocks back the heat
and tightens the onshore gradient, leading to stronger afternoon
winds mid-to-late next week.

* Temperatures and HeatRisk: Lower western Nevada valleys will
  warm into the mid-upper 90s this weekend, with a 70-80% shot at
  triple digits for Reno, Fallon, and Lovelock Monday-Tuesday. For
  Reno specifically, there is around a 50-60% probability of
  tying or exceeding the daily record high of 102 on Tuesday, set
  in 1970. Sierra towns like South Lake Tahoe and Truckee will be
  in the 80s to near 90, with higher valleys in the 70s. This
  isnt extreme for August, but it will be hot enough to cause
  issues for sensitive groupsolder adults, young children,
  outdoor workers, and those without cooling. Limit heat related
  health risks by planning outdoor work and recreation early or
  late in the day, hydrating regularly, taking shade/indoor breaks
  if working outside, and checking in on neighbors, friends, and
  family who may be at risk.

* Moisture/Thunderstorms: PWAT values increase slightly Tuesday-
  Wednesday, peaking near 0.6-0.8" in Mono and Alpine counties and
  0.3-0.5" elsewhere. Of note is the 400 hPa moisture signal, with
  ensemble guidance indicating pockets of 50-70% RH over the
  eastern Sierra. Elevated mid-to-upper level moisture can be a
  proxy for deeper convective potential by limiting entrainment
  and sustaining more robust updrafts. Even within a regime of
  modest surface-based instability, this environment could support
  isolated high-based convection along the crest with eastward
  drift into adjacent foothills. Current probabilities remain
  5-10% for the eastern Sierra and 5% elsewhere, though stronger
  localized updrafts would enhance lightning potential despite low
  coverage. Any convection will likely be short-lived, producing
  occasional cloud-to-ground lightning, brief heavy rain, and
  gusty outflow winds. Confidence in coverage/timing is low given
  weak low-level convergence and limited cooling aloft to steepen
  lapse rates.

* Winds/Cool-down: Lighter west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph, with
  occasional gusts greater than 20 mph, will persist through
  Monday. As heights fall midweek, tightening pressure gradients
  look to bring breezy to gusty west winds Tuesday-Thursday.
  Probabilities for gusts over 35 mph peak Wednesday, around 70%
  in far western Nevada, 45-50% for the eastern Sierra and the
  Basin and Range, and 25-30% for many other western Nevada and
  Sierra locations, before easing Thursday. Combined with ongoing
  dry conditions, this could lead to periods of elevated fire
  weather concerns. Highs cool to the low-mid 90s in lower western
  Nevada valleys and 70s-80s in Sierra towns by Thursday.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with mostly clear skies. Afternoon W-SW gusts 18-25 kt each day,
stronger Tuesday-Thursday with the potential for bumpy conditions
along/east of the Sierra. Low chance (5-10%) of thunderstorms near
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK Tuesday-Wednesday. Threats include outflow gusts,
shifting winds, brief MVFR in heavier showers, and virga-driven
downbursts. Density altitude concerns increase Monday-Tuesday
areawide with highs near 100 in the lower valleys of western
Nevada.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$