Toluca Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

578
FXUS66 KLOX 232141
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
141 PM PST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...23/1137 AM.

A powerful winter storm will bring heavy rain and strong winds to
the area through Christmas Day. Significant flooding issues and
strong winds are expected along with the potential for strong
thunderstorms. For Friday and Saturday, a cool and showery pattern
will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...23/140 PM.

***STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WINTER STORM WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING AND
 ROCK/MUD SLIDES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING***

Overall, 12Z models and their respective ensembles are advertising
all systems a "go" for an impactful winter storm through Christmas
Day. Still looking at a moderate to strong atmospheric river to
roll across the area, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Here
are the details:

RAIN...Light rain will continue to increase across the area this
afternoon/evening. For tonight/Wednesday, the first, and most
significant, impulse of the AR will move across the area. There
will be a relative lull in rainfall late in the day on Wednesday,
but a second shot of moderate to heavy rain will move across the
area on Christmas Day. For Friday, some lingering showers are
expected.

RAIN TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY:
North of Point Conception: 2-4 inches coastal/valley areas and
4-7 inches for foothills/mountains.

South of Point Conception: 4-7 inches coastal/valley areas and
6-14 inches foothills/mountains.

RAIN RATES: Peak rainfall rates north of Point Conception are
expected to be in the 0.40-1.00 inch/hour range. South of Point
Conception, rainfall rates are expected to be higher (0.70-1.50
inches per hour), especially on south-facing slopes.

THUNDERSTORMS: Unstable air, associated with the storm, along with
strong jet dynamics will bring a chance of of embedded
thunderstorms tonight through Thursday evening to all areas. The
STORM PREDICTION CENTER placed the area under a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms tonight through Christmas Day. Any
thunderstorms that form will bring brief intense rainfall. More
importantly, due to the strong upper level winds, any convective
element will have a high risk to bring damaging winds.
Additionally, there will be a chance of weak, short-lived,
tornadoes or waterspouts, especially during the second wave of
energy on Thursday when there is colder air aloft and more
instability.

SNOW: Snow levels will remain above the 7500-8000 foot range
through Christmas Eve, but will drop to the 6500-7000 foot range
on Christmas Day and down to the 5500-6000 foot range on Friday.
So, no winter weather issues are expected through Christmas Eve,
but some decent accumulating snowfall will be likely at the resort
level beginning on Christmas Day.

WIND: Strong and gusty southeast to south winds are expected
today through Christmas Day. Warning level wind gusts, 60-80 MPH,
are likely across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties as
well as the Ventura/LA mountains and Antelope Valley. Elsewhere,
strong advisory-level winds, gusting 35-55 MPH, are expected. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS and WIND ADVISORIES remain in effect.

IMPACTS: Widespread and significant urban flooding will be likely
along with rock/mudslides and debris flows (with the threat not
just confined to burn areas). Streams, rivers, and creeks will
also see rapid flows, thereby increasing the threat of swift water
rescues and there is a possibility of some localized river
flooding. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DUE TO THESE MAJOR HYDROLOGICAL RISKS. The combination
of increasingly saturated soil and the strong winds will bring the
potential for widespread downed trees and power lines, especially
in areas under a High Wind Warning.

ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS HOLIDAY STORM. ANYONE
TRAVELING ON CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION. MAKE SURE TO TAKE THE PROPER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS
BEFORE THE STORM HITS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...23/140 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models are in decent synoptic agreement
through the period.

On Saturday, upper trough will swing across the area. This will
keep the possibility of some light showers across the area through
the day. High temperatures will remain 4-8 degrees below normal.

For Sunday through Tuesday, models indicate the trough will cutoff
into a low that wobbles well offshore to the southwest. The ECMWF
family has the low further offshore, allowing for a ridge to nose
in from the northwest. So, the ECMWF solution would be a bit
warmer than the GFS solution. With respect to precipitation
threat, the current official NBM forecast indicates a slight
chance of showers Monday and Tuesday. However, based on the
deterministic models looking dry, confidence in the NBM forecast
is low.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1819Z.

At 1641Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 3700 feet with a temperature of 14 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package.

CIGs should rise a bit through at least 21Z Tue. Expecting MVFR
conditions with IFR conditions during heavy rainfall. Cannot rule
out brief periods of LIFR.

Chance of -SHRA through around 05Z Wed then rain will begin to
overspread the area from the east. S-SE winds will strengthen
during this time. Timing of wind shifts may be off by +/- 2 hrs
and wind speeds could be off by 10-15 kts at any given time.

These strong winds combined with moderate to heavy rainfall will
result in poor flight conditions including on ascent/descent.
LLWS and turbulence is possible to likely anywhere, but especially
over and near mountainous terrain and with any thunderstorms that
develop due to erratic winds. Specifically, frontal turbulence
will be an issue.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Good confidence that CIGs will
raise a bit more through about 21Z Tue. Rain will likely develop
around the terminal by 06Z. Expecting E-SE winds to continue
increasing thereafter. Strong east winds are likely through
Wednesday. Frontal Turbulence is expected. There is a low chance
that winds briefly switch to the west sometime from 18Z to 00Z
Wednesday, but high confidence that even if it occurs will switch
back to the east.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Good confidence that CIGs will
raise a bit more through about 21Z Tue. Rain and stronger winds
are expected to develop around 10Z Wed. Frontal Turbulence is
expected.

&&

.MARINE...23/743 AM.

A strong winter storm will bring widespread, dangerous marine
weather to the coastal waters with exceptionally strong winds,
rough short- period seas, heavy rain, and a chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon through Thursday.

Vessels, especially small vessels are strongly advised to remain
in safe harbor for the duration of the storm, as these conditions
can sink boats. South- facing harbors will also be especially
vulnerable to the south swell and strong winds.

Details:
South to southeast winds and seas will rapidly increase to
dangerous levels this afternoon to evening as a storm system
approaches the coastal waters. SCA level southerly and seas will
further strengthen to GALE to STORM FORCE conditions this
afternoon to evening, likely strongest north of Point Conception.
These strong winds are expected to impact the nearshore waters,
especially for unsheltered south- facing coastlines and areas
north of Point Conception.

Large southerly short- period seas will develop tonight and
should linger Wednesday into Thursday, leading to elevated, choppy
seas at south-facing harbor entrances. There is also a 15-30%
chance of thunderstorms late today through early Thursday, which
will bring a threat of erratic gusty winds, heavy downpours,
waterspouts, and cloud-to-water lightning.

&&

.BEACHES...23/745 AM.

A short to moderate period southerly wind swell will produce
choppy, large, dangerous surf and rip currents through Thursday.
A longer period NW swell will take over Friday, and surf will
continue to be significant into the weekend. It is best to remain
out of the water during this time. See High Surf Advisory (CFWLOX)
for details.

While peak tides are not very high, minor to locally moderate
coastal flooding may occur for south facing shores through
Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday
      for zones 38-87-88-340>353-369-370-376>383-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday evening for
      zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM
      PST Saturday for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 354>358-362-366>368-371>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM
      PST Saturday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 1 PM PST Wednesday for zones
      650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RM/Phillips/Black
BEACHES...RM/Black
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox