Thousand Oaks, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS66 KLOX 231807
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1007 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...23/909 AM.

A significant high surf event with coastal flooding is expected
through the week, with the most dangerous conditions expected
today and Tuesday. It will be sunny and warmer today after morning
low clouds and fog. Then a weak weather system will bring a couple
hours of light rain to many areas Tuesday along with cooler
temperatures. A warming trend will start Wednesday and continue
through the week with some gusty north winds at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...23/925 AM.

***UPDATE***

***Significant high-surf event with coastal flooding expected
 this week, with the most dangerous conditions Monday into
 Tuesday***

A little morning stratus and fog today near the coast should clear
off shortly leading to a warmer and sunnier day than yesterday in
most areas, though a weak eddy circulation over the Santa Barbara
Channel could maintain low clouds there longer into the
afternoon. Most valley areas should warm up to the mid or even
upper 70s and coastal areas mostly mid to upper 60s.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak storm system will sweep across the region Tuesday bringing
light rain across the region. This is another fast moving system
and rain will be short-lived, mostly 3 hours or less at any one
location, beginning in the morning along the Central Coast, to
late morning early afternoon across SB/Ventura Counties, and
afternoon to early evening for LA County. Most areas will see a
quarter inch or less, except between a half and one inch across
northwest SLO County with rain rates up to a third of an inch per
hour at times.

Winds will ramp up again starting as early as Tuesday evening
into Wednesday, with the strongest winds in the
mountains/foothills from the Santa Ynez Range and northward, as
well as the I-5 corridor, and some short duration wind advisories
may be needed for these aforementioned areas.

Wednesday is still looking to be sunny and cool with high temps
in the 60s range and the warmest of valleys barely sneaking into
the 70s.

Please reference the High Surf Warning and High Surf
Advisory, as well as the Coastal Flood Advisory, regarding the
significant high-surf event.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...23/431 AM.

Gusty north to northwest winds expected to persist through the
rest of the week and into next weekend, strongest in the mountains
and below passes and canyons. Most areas will remain rain free
with the possible exception of SLO County where another weakening
system will bring a chance of light showers later Friday and again
next Sunday. Amounts no more than a quarter inch each time.

Otherwise, most areas will experience a slow warming trend. Warmer
valleys expected to see low to to mid 70s while coastal areas
stay mostly in the mid to high 60s. Minimal stratus expected
through the period with light to moderate offshore flow in place.
Longer range ensembles not really offering much hope for rain
through the first week of January except for a couple passing
glances across the Central Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1806Z.

At 15Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 3000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

Overall, moderate to low confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Generally,
expect conds to become mostly VFR by afternoon. High clouds will
linger across the CWA thru most of the fcst pd. Low clouds are
expected to become widespread tonight for the coastal/valley
areas. Rain chances north of Pt Conception for the latter half of
the fcst pd.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 20%
chance of VLIFR conds (1/4SM, VV001-VV002) from 06z-16z. No
significant east wind expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 30-40%
chance minimum flight cats never fall below MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...23/818 AM.

Large, long period W to NW swell will affect the waters this
week. Seas will peak at 15-20 ft in the Outer Waters. For the
inner waters, seas will peak at 14-18 ft N of Pt. Sal, 9-12 ft in
the Santa Barbara Channel, and 7-10 ft in the southern inner
waters. These conditions pose a risk for damaging breaking waves
at times at the Morro Bay and Ventura Harbor entrances.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas will likely continue in the Outer
Waters and Inner Waters off the Central Coast thru the week.
There may be a brief reduction in seas Wed eve/Thu morning.
SCA level seas will affect the Santa Barbara thru at least
Wed, and the southern inner waters thru Tue night.

Along with the high seas, SCA level winds will likely affect the
Outer Waters much of the time thru Thu night, with winds below
SCA levels in some areas this morning, and again late tonight and
early Tue. In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 40-50%
chance of SCA level winds this afternoon thru Tue morning (best
chances just south of Pt. San Luis), then SCA conds are likely
(70% chance) much of the time Tue afternoon thru Wed evening. In
the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds are likely (60-70%
chance) during the afternoon/eve hours today thru Wed, with a 40%
chance Thu afternoon/eve. In the southern inner waters, there is a
40% chance of SCA level winds this afternoon/eve, and a 60%
chance Tue afternoon/eve.

There is a 20-30% chance of GALE force gusts from Pt Conception
to San Nicolas Island and into far western portions of the Inner
Waters S of Pt Conception Tue afternoon into Wed morning.

&&

.BEACHES...23/526 AM.

A large and long period west to northwest swell will bring
dangerously high surf, especially to west and northwest facing
beaches at times through the week.

Surf will peak at 18 to 25 feet on the Central Coast, 12 to 18
feet on the Ventura County Coast and 8 to 12 feet of the west
facing beaches of L.A. County. Even on west-facing beaches on the
south coast of SBA County, surf will peak at 6 to 10 feet. The
peak of the surf is expected this afternoon into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of the week, advisory level surf is expected at
times, with confidence highest on the Central Coast and on the
Ventura County Coast.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible near the times of
high tides through at least Tuesday morning on the Central Coast
and the Ventura County Coast, with nuisance to minor coastal
flooding elsewhere. Please reference our SRF and CFW products for
more details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 87-349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Warning in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Friday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis/Black/DB
BEACHES...Lewis/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox