The Sea Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

668
FXUS66 KMTR 271854
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1054 AM PST Fri Dec 27 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1204 AM PST Fri Dec 27 2024

Multiple rain systems will move across northern California through
the weekend, bringing periods of rain to the region. Dangerous
surf and beach conditions are expected into the weekend. Dry
weather should arrive for the early part of next week, which could
lead to some cold morning temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM PST Fri Dec 27 2024

Refreshed the PoP grids through 10pm tonight to accommodate for
drier weather late this morning and into the afternoon. Current
guidance shows rain returning to the North Bay this evening
somewhere between 4pm-10pm, with rain trying infiltrate
southwards overnight. The question will be how far south will they
get? As of right now, models favor keeping the majority of the
rain north, with perhaps some showers clipping Santa Cruz and the
South Bay counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1204 AM PST Fri Dec 27 2024

Stratiform rain extends across the Bay Area and edges into the
Central Coast, with the rain expected to taper off later this
morning. This current rainmaker is expected to be the most intense
of the series of systems coming through northern California,
especially for locations south of the North Bay. The higher
elevations could expect up to 1-2 inches of additional rain from
this system, while the lower elevations of the Bay Area are
generally forecast for around 0.5-1" of rain, except in the rain
shadowed Santa Clara Valley, where up to 0.25" is expected. On the
Central Coast, the Monterey-Salinas region sees around 0.25" of rain
while the interior valleys could see a few sprinkles. Gusty winds
also continue through the morning, with gusts as high as 30-40 mph
along the coast, at the ridgetops, and through gaps and passes,
before tapering off later in the morning and afternoon.

Mainly dry conditions are expected for the day, with some lingering
showers possible at the higher elevations, before another round of
rain comes into the North Bay later tonight into Saturday. This rain
system is expected to be lighter, with rainfall totals 0.5-0.75" in
the North Bay mountains and up to 0.25" in the North Bay valleys,
and more concentrated, with a few sprinkles possible in the coastal
and Bayshore SF Bay Area and nothing expected in the interior Bay
Area and south of Santa Cruz.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM PST Thu Dec 26 2024

Zonal flow through the early portion of the weekend will let
additional disturbances pass over us, keeping our weather wet. An
upper level trough barrels through the PacNW Sunday into early
Monday, which should be the last hurrah for rain for us as ridging
builds behind it. This period of ridging will let colder air nestle
into the region, leading to some chilly mornings for the start of
the work week. Will need to keep an eye out for any sort of frost
advisories for the North Bay Valleys and interior Monterey and San
Benito counties as temperatures look to fall into the 30s. Beyond
that, ensemble and model guidance start to differ around the New
Year / beginning of January. Kept NBM guidance in for now as it
advertises light rain for the North Bay counties and San Francisco
peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM PST Fri Dec 27 2024

Spotty lower CIGs and prevailing mid-level clouds continue to affect
the area. Winds stay light to moderate through the TAF period. The
next set of showers arrives into the night, bringing reduced
visibilities as they spread across the region. Shower chances reduce
in the mid to late morning before exiting into Saturday afternoon.
However, lower cloud cover looks linger beyond the forecast period.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs scatter this afternoon with light to
moderate west winds affecting the SF Bay. IFR CIGs build overnight
as showers arrive and visibilities reduce. Shower activity reduces in
the late morning on Saturday as CIGs rise to MVFR levels and
visibilities improve.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR CIGs lift and scatter this
afternoon as moderate west winds build. These winds reduce and
become light into the late evening. IFR/MVFR CIGs return in the late
night as light showers arrive. Showers will also cause reductions in
visibilities. Shower activity reduces in the mid morning with rising
CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1052 AM PST Fri Dec 27 2024

Winds will temporarily shift to the west across the coastal waters
and bays this morning. On Sunday a cold front will arrive from the
northwest bringing additional wet weather and gusty winds, winds
shifting to northwest Sunday afternoon. A high pressure system
will move across the coastal waters and bays bringing dry weather
early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1054 AM PST Thu Dec 26 2024

A High Surf Advisory is in effect through 4 AM Sunday. Large NW
swell will persist through late Saturday night to early Sunday
morning. This will be roughly 15 feet with a 15 second period,
translating to 20-30 foot breaking waves, depending on the beach
orientation and bathymetry (beach slope). The waves will peak
Friday and begin to abate through the day Saturday. Inexperienced
swimmers should stay out of the water, wave watchers should
maintain a safe distance, and no one should ever turn their back
on the ocean. Let`s get through this weekend without another ocean
fatality.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
     530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...KR

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea