The Sea Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

545
FXUS66 KMTR 252009
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
109 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

 - Cool weather continues through Saturday

 - Temperatures return closer to normal starting Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025
(This evening through Saturday)

Low clouds are scattering out and/or dissipating across much of the
region this afternoon. However, temperatures this afternoon will
remain 5-15 degrees F below seasonal averages as a cut-off low
remains over the San Francisco Bay Area. With PWAT values just above
1.00" and MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg, there is around 5%
chance of high based convection across the far northern portions of
the North Bay this evening into early Saturday morning.

Expecting an early return of stratus into the coastal valleys again
overnight with a good likelihood for coastal drizzle and drizzle in
the favored upslope regions across the area. These low clouds are
then forecast to dissipate across much of the region as we head into
Saturday afternoon with similar temperatures as today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1211 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025
(Saturday night through Thursday)

The long wave pattern is mounting a rescue mission for the cut-off
low this weekend. By Sunday an approaching trough over the East
Pacific will gradually re-absorb the low. The pattern change might
not be obvious at the surface as the trough will then linger near
the coast, providing a similar cooling effect as the cut-off low.
At the same time high pressure will build over the desert SW,
bringing triple digit heat to our friends in southern Arizona.
The battle between these two features will cause temperatures to
rise Sunday, but still remain slightly below seasonal normals. The
loss of the cut-off low will cause the marine layer to thin a bit,
but don`t expect to see a sunrise anytime soon. This new pattern
looks very stable, with temperatures remaining near or just below
seasonal normal through next week. That`s still warmer than it`s
been, however.

So will a summer heat wave ever hit? There is some indication in
the ECMWF ensemble mean that the SW US high and subtropical high
over the central pacific will merge over northern California
sometime around August 6. The GEFS mean shows similar timing.
We`re talking nearly 2 weeks out, so take this with a grain of
salt. In fact we had similar indications a month ago about July.
Not only did that heat wave not happen, July 2025 may end up in
the coldest 10% of Julys on record.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The marine layer got close to 2500-3000ft this morning, which lead
to an impressive image via satellite earlier this morning. Stratus
is expected to return to all TAF sites, with MVFR to IFR cigs
expected during the evening and overnight hours. Pockets of fog and
drizzle are expected as well, with clearing expected to begin mid to
late morning and VFR skies expected for interior locations.

Vicinity of SFO...The status of the stratus will be the continued
forecast challenge for SFO today. A lot of guidance has indicated
that SFO should be clearing out by now, but if you take a peak at
satellite and the KSFO observation that is clearly not the case.
Westerly flow keeps feeding stratus into San Francisco and San Mateo
counties, which should leave us with MVFR cigs for the afternoon. An
uptick in westerly winds is expected as well later this afternoon
and into the early evening hours where gusts to 20 to 25kt may be
possible. As the evening approaches, the marine layer should deepen
again which should leave SFO with IFR cigs overnight. Skies should
gradually begin to clear by mid to late tomorrow morning. Looking at
winds, there is a chance we could see a slightly stronger
opportunity for westerly winds and associated gusts tomorrow
afternoon and evening as various models show an opportunity for the
SFO to SAC gradient potentially peaking at 4-5mb.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO; however, the stratus has
eroded over the southern half of the Bay. There could be some
additional clearing over the Bay, perhaps with either some SCT MVFR
cigs or ever perhaps a brief period of VFR. This should be short
lived as stratus will return this evening.

Monterey Bay Terminals...An otter eddy has formed which helped clear
out the south half of Monterey Bay and those areas along the
immediate coast, while keeping the northern half and a good portion
of Santa Cruz county socked in. Expect clearing to continue for KMRY
and KSNS, with a period of VFR conditions expected later this
afternoon. For those to the north, the otter eddy may lead to
cloudier skies and MVFR cigs through the afternoon if mixing isn`t
able to occur. Nonetheless, the stratus will return this evening,
and bring another night of MVFR to IFR cigs, patchy fog, and
drizzle.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 907 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A moderate northwesterly breeze and moderate seas will prevail
through Tuesday. Low clouds with drizzle can be expected through
Saturday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR/Sarment

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