Scotts Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS66 KMTR 081153
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
453 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

No significant weather issues with dry conditions and temperatures
generally near seasonal averages through the extended period. A
slight cooling trend arrives for the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

An upper level ridge continues to move into the Pacific Northwest
and British Columbia, while an cutoff low to the west of
California maintains the marine layer at around 1500 feet deep.
Latest satellite imagery shows stratus clouds blanketing the coast
and flowing into the inland valleys, with a cloudy morning
expected for all but the highest elevations and the most interior
valleys in the East Bay and Central Coast. Morning lows hover in
the lower to middle 50s for the lower elevations, up to the lower
60s in the higher elevations. In terms of sensible weather, today
will be remarkably similar to yesterday with clearing skies this
afternoon away from the immediate coast, a robust onshore wind
this afternoon and evening, and seasonably warm highs in the upper
70s to the middle 80s inland, up to the middle 90s in the warmest
spots, and cool coastal highs in the upper 50s to the middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Over the next few days, the upper level ridge will erode while the
cutoff low dissipates, leading to a slight compression in the marine
layer, but otherwise leaving the weather pattern remarkably stable
through the middle of the week. By Thursday, a trough forming in the
eastern Pacific will move into the West Coast, leading to a slight
cooling trend across the region towards the end of the 7-day
outlook. Inland high temperatures will drop slightly below the
seasonal averages, around the middle 70s to the lower 80s, with
coastal temperatures remaining stable in the upper 50s to middle
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings this morning with some improvement in
the afternoon before a return of similar conditions this evening.
Moderate onshore winds prevail through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...With a small area of clear skies, I`m facing a very
tough TAF for SFO this morning. With boundary layer averaged
winds coming from the west, there is just enough downslope drying
to support the donut hole of clear skies over the terminal. Most
likely the winds will undergo a subtle shift to the NW over the
next couple hours, causing the boundary layer wind to flow over
shorter hills, reducing the drying effect, and allowing high IFR-
low MVFR stratus to fill in. This set-up is very sensitive to
small changes in wind direction, and thus the confidence is very
low in the short term. The confidence grows by midday as the low
clouds should retreat back to the coast and clear skies will
persist through the afternoon as we`ve seen over the last few
days.

SFO Bridge Approach...There is a higher chance of stratus impacts
over the approach than at the terminal itself through the morning
hours.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High confidence in LIFR/IFR ceilings
through the majority of the morning with a slight chance for
visibility reduction at MRY for a couple hours around sunrise.
While SNS should have a few hours of clear skies in the afternoon,
that`s not a guarantee at MRY as persistent NW winds could
support a good feed of stratus from the Monterey Bay to the
terminal. At the very least the ceilings should lift to MVFR in
the afternoon if the clouds don`t clear out.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 438 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A fresh to strong westerly breeze will develop across the bays
this afternoon and persist through the evening. A more widespread
fresh NW breeze will arrive Monday afternoon across the coastal
waters. A low amplitude, long period southwesterly swell arrives
Monday, bringing enhanced currents and causing waves to break in
deeper water. Strong NW winds and rough seas are expected to
arrive by mid-week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Monday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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