Sand City, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS66 KMTR 101846
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1146 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

A slight cooling trend starts today for the more interior areas
Otherwise expect a continuation the daily patter of marine layer
clouds each night and morning, some coastal drizzle, a few
pockets of fog, and breezy onshore winds each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

The overnight forecasting team did some extra polishing into the
short term forecast. The fog/drizzle/ and cloud cover forecast have
been finely tuned and adjusted as the marine layer continues to
dominate the coast and the slightly inland. Patches of fog will favor
the North Bay valleys as well as the coast through the late morning.
Brief moments of drizzle will also be possible along the immediate
coast and around the Monterey Bay. So fairly similar morning
conditions as the last few days, but the pattern does begin to
change today.

The slight ridge pattern is turning into a more zonal upper level
pattern.

What does that mean? I`m glad you asked.

It means the upper level environment will start moving to a more
direct west to east flow over the west coast, leading to more
onshore flow. It also means today will be cooler for the more
interior areas that haven`t been seeing those strong pushes of low
level clouds from the marine environment. Don`t expect it to be a
robust cool-down, as most of the interior areas are only seeing a
few degrees difference.

For areas along the coast and affected by the marine layer, don`t
expect much in the way of change. A cloudy morning, with some
clearing in the afternoon and then back to cloudy in the evening.
It`s very much the summer stratus pattern giving the "June Gloom."
The change to zonal flow will expand the marine layer, allowing it
to flow deeper inland, but looks to reduce the concentration of
moisture within the marine layer, allowing for some areas to see
cloud cover to clear sooner.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

The upper-level pattern will continue to promote onshore flow well
into the long term forecast. This will continue the cooling trend
for the more interior areas, as well as the cloudy coastal and
valley conditions. A weak trough looks to move through the area over
the weekend, allowing the marine layer expansion to continue. This
will result in the cloud layer levels rising through weekend, and
less chances for fog. After that, the longer term models are
struggling to figure out what to do with the post-trough
environment. Some models are hinting at a quick transition into a
ridge pattern in the middle of the next work week, leading to
another warming trend, while others stay more zonal, which keeps our
current trend. This will be something worth checking back in as the
forecast continues to develop!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.AVIATION...The forecast will be the timing of the status of
the stratus as the forecast has been and will be on repeat. Tended
to trend with observations from today and yesterday for timing of
arrival and departure respectively, assuming we have a similar
marine layer depth. Expect IFR to MVFR cigs at most sites, with
interior locations like KSJC and KLVK clearing the fastest, followed
by North Bay terminals. IFR cigs may get low enough to drop vis MVFR
at times.




Vicinity of SFO...Medium to high confidence in the SFO forecast as
the stratus pattern looks similar to what we saw yesterday, perhaps
slightly stronger for stratus remaining socked in to the east at
KOAK. Expect to have MVFR conditions hold through the period, with
the chance for clouds becoming BKN for a period this afternoon. This
will be short lived as the westerly feed of stratus is strong.
Models generally struggle to capture this, with the HRRR, GLAMP, and
NBM supporting this. Guidance seems supportive of potential clearing
to some degree tomorrow afternoon between 18Z and 0Z. Though stratus
looks to make yet another return after that.

SFO Bridge Approach...The approach should fair better than the
vicinity of SFO as we can see the stratus mixing out over the
southern portion of the bay. The stratus line appears to be holding
right around the vicinity given the continuous westerly flow. Expect
similar conditions to yesterday where visuals will be short lived.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus will continue to hug the coast with
clearing expected around Santa Cruz and the north part of the Bay.
KSNS should see some clearing as well this afternoon based on
persistence forecasting and satellite imagery. Unsure if MTR will be
so lucky, opted to try and trend towards some VFR conditions with a
TEMPO this afternoon. Otherwise expect MVFR to IFR cigs, and reduced
vis with the low cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail through the
forecast period with gale force gusts possible beginning Wednesday
afternoon along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point
Sur. Significant wave heights will be moderate today, building to
become rough tomorrow.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Sarment

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