Rio Nido, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

625
FXUS66 KMTR 121010
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
310 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The daily pattern of the return of marine layer clouds overnight
through the morning hours, some coastal drizzle, and breezy
afternoon onshore winds continues. Temperatures remain in the
upper 50s and into the 60s at the coast, the 70 to 80s for areas
more inland, and into the 90s for the far interior. Areas away
from the marine layer continue to experience dry conditions,
leading to some fire concerns as grasses and smaller plants
continue to cure.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025


For the 3rd night in a row there is a reduction in cloud cover
across much of the area. The marine layer is around 2000ft and there
is still a fair push of moisture inland from it, but the increased
expansion of the marine layer has decreased the concentration of the
moisture and made it slightly harder for cloud cover to form
overland. This is coupled with the fact that low cloud transport
over the marine environment is moving mostly north to south, and not
much is turning towards the coast itself, also reducing our cloud
cover.

Pockets of fog and some areas of drizzle will still be possible
along the San Mateo Coast and around the Monterey-Carmel-Pacific
Grove area with slight chances around the SF Bay into the early
morning.

The reduced cloud cover will result in the warming trend for the
slightly more inland areas to continue today, while the cloudier
immediate coast stays cool and the far interior stays roughly the
same(warm). Breezy to gusty winds are expected in the afternoon and
into the evening, especially right along the dividing line between
the cloudier to clearer environments.

Cloud cover builds earlier this evening than Thursday night, with a
better feed of cloud cover building in from the ocean than what
we`re seeing this morning.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

I`m struggling to find much remarkable about the next few days as
the pattern remains fairly solid:

-Cloudy on the coast
-Breezy and some clearing for the afternoons
-Warm days for the cloudless
-Cool days for the cloudy

The only true variations in temperatures and wind are going to be
for the areas that are going to be on the edges of the cloud cover.
So, we`re having fun with microclimates and how short drives can
mean the difference between putting the heater on or the
air conditioning in the car!

The pattern does look to change into the next work week! Models have
been hinting at a trough pattern arriving sometime over the weekend
for some time, but the passage has been delayed more and more with
each update. This has been from a combo of momentum changes and a
some different angling on the jet stream. For now, it looks like the
trough will arrive on Monday, but there is still some potential for
an even more delayed arrival. The tough itself will increase onshore
flow and lead to widespread cooling, but only up to 5 degrees or so
for daily highs, and even less so for overnight temps.

Model agreement has improved on the post-trough passage
environment, offering some reductions in onshore flow, but not so
much going into ridging nor offshore flow. It will offer some slight
warming, but as of the current forecast, nothing drastic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 953 PM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Satellite imagery shows MVFR-IFR stratus building along the coast of
the San Mateo Peninsula, the East Bay Hills, and the Monterey
Peninsula. The North Bay terminals should remain clear tonight, but
the rest of the region will see stratus developing inland through
the night with moderate confidence for stratus impacts at LVK and
SJC. Stratus should dissipate through Thursday morning with
lingering patches impacting the immediate coast from Point Reyes
south through the western San Mateo Peninsula. Despite optimistic
model output showing a scattering over HAF Thursday afternoon,
confidence is still too low to include in the TAF at this point.
Breezy onshore winds will continue to diminish, remaining light
through Thursday morning before breezy onshore flow resumes Thursday
afternoon. Some LLWS is possible in the North Bay valleys and the
coastal ranges on Thursday evening as surface winds decouple from
the flow aloft.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-IFR ceilings through Thursday morning with a
light westerly breeze. Strong and gusty west winds resume Thursday
afternoon with a low probability (around 10-20%) for wind gusts over
35 knots. Low confidence for stratus formation Thursday night into
Friday.

SFO Bridge Approach... Lower confidence for stratus impacts to the
approach path overnight, and Thursday night into Friday, than over
the terminal. Otherwise similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR ceilings at MRY continue through
the night before dissipating sometime Thursday morning; at SNS,
ceilings are expected to develop over the next few hours. Moderate
confidence in timing of clearing at MRY. Breezy onshore winds resume
Thursday afternoon. Low to moderate confidence (30-40% probability)
that stratus forms over MRY before the end of the TAF period, but
chances for stratus impacts increase later Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts,  and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through Monday. Expect gale
force gusts to develop near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes
and Point Sur during the afternoon and evening hours of today and
tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2025

Areas not being reached by the marine layer continue to see dry
conditions. Higher elevations, particularly in the Santa Lucias
and in the Gabilan range, continue to see poor humidity retentions
and recoveries. In fact, some locations are hitting single digit
and lower teens for RH values. A few locations in the interior
North Bay are seeing breezy north to northeast winds and these
winds look to last into the morning which will increase drying in
these areas. Winds will remain breezy each afternoon/evening
through the Delta, and any inland gap or pass. The combination of
dry fine fuels (grasses), lower RH, breezy winds with gusts in the
20-40 mph will elevate fire weather concerns.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for SF
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Sarment

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