Plaster City, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

698
FXUS65 KPSR 271032
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
332 AM MST Sun Apr 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will subside today, but daily afternoon breeziness can be
expected through most of this week. Temperatures will run below
normal through the early parts of the week ahead of above normal
temperatures through the end of this week with dry conditions.
Attention will then turn to a pattern change that is anticipated
to at least cool temperatures again this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Amplified troughing across western CONUS, with the upper low
circulation centered over the Great Basin, will bring the coolest
temperatures of this feature to the region today. While the core
of the upper level jet from this feature will slide east of the
region today, breezy conditions will continue across the region,
particularly the higher terrain peaks in Gila County this
afternoon. While this main circulation will lift to the northeast
over the central Rockies, the overall longwave trough will
continue to amplify across the Southwest, keeping cooler
temperatures and daily afternoon breeziness across the region
through Tuesday.

Negative height anomalies from this trough will linger into the
middle of this week, but due to the trough weakening,
temperatures will warm back to normal levels as early as Tuesday.
As the trough begins to slide eastward into New Mexico by
Wednesday, zonal flow will follow as ridging builds into the
Intermountain West late this week. While positive height anomalies
remain mostly to the north of the region, temperatures are
expected to warm back above normal levels with dry conditions
continuing through the latter portions of this week.

As advertised over the last several forecast periods, uncertainty
becomes much larger heading into this upcoming weekend, as
ensemble model spread increases over the development of another
Pacific trough moving into Western CONUS. While previous forecasts
indicated uncertainty on whether this trough would remain
progressive (remaining well north of the region) versus amplifying
into the Desert Southwest, there is a much stronger signal towards
this trough amplifying across the region this upcoming weekend
(~75% of the ensemble suite). In a more amplified pattern
scenario, cooling temperatures would be a certainty. Thus, the
main uncertainty, which still remains pretty wide at this time, is
in regards to how amplified this trough becomes, which will affect
timing/onset and potential of enhancing the breezy to windy
conditions across the region. While the most amplified solutions
would result in increased moisture levels into the Desert
Southwest, none of the cluster solutions for Saturday onward are
advertising much in the way of precipitation chances aside from
far northern Arizona at this time. Stay tuned for further updates
in regards to the outlook for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Westerly winds will continue through the overnight hours. SOme
occasional gusts up around 20 kt are possible at KPHX through the
overnight. Confidence in a diurnal switch to the east overnight is
low with perhaps more light and variable conditions favored early
Sunday morning, KIWA may be the only terminal to switch to SE`rly
winds early tomorrow morning. Westerly winds with gusts up around
20 kt is expected again tomorrow afternoon. Skies will remain
mostly clear with a few passing high clouds Sunday afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will remain W`rly at KIPL and S`rly/SW`rly at KBLH through
the period. Westerly gusts will continue at KIPL over the next
couple of hours before decreasing for the overnight hours but
remaining around 10-15 kt. Westerly winds with gusts of 20-25 kt
are once again expected tomorrow afternoon and evening. At KBLH,
wind speeds will generally be aob 10 kt with some occasional gusts
into the upper teens tomorrow afternoon. Skies will remain mostly
clear with FEW passing high clouds Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures cooling below normal will allow an increase in humidity
levels early this week, however warming conditions during the
latter half of the week will return conditions back to more
typical for early May. Winds will maintain a seasonally typical
upslope gustiness through the entire period with the strongest
gusts occurring this afternoon. With dry weather prevailing,
afternoon minRHs will generally fall into a 15-25% range during
the first part of next week before returning to a 10-15% range by
the middle of the week. Fair to good overnight recovery of 30-60%
will retreat towards poor to fair (20-40%) levels.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Young/18