Morgan Hill, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS66 KMTR 061132
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
332 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 250 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025

 - Persistent forecast through the next seven days with benign
   conditions and no precipitation expected

 - Impacts from Tule Fog in the North Bay and interior East Bay
   valleys

 - Next chance for rain towards the middle of the month

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 250 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery overnight reveals a different scenario than the
last few nights. Tule Fog remains persistent across the Central
Valley, West Delta, and far East Bay Valleys. The change is a
redevelopment of the marine layer as high pressure builds
overhead. There is stratus along portions of the coastal waters
and Bay Area with the Central Coast remaining cloud free. There
was a Cold Weather Advisory in effect for portions of the North
Bay, but an influx of low level moisture/stratus limited
widespread temps below 36 degrees. In fact, a few places saw an
increase in temperatures once the stratus developed. Therefore,
cancelled the advisory. Another interesting note are the temp
spreads across the N Bay from valley to mts with upper 30s coldest
in the valleys and low 50s highest peaks. The warmer temps are
likely being enhanced by NE winds above the stratus deck. One
weather impact that hasn`t changed is patchy dense fog impacting
the N Bay and E Bay Valleys. It`s patchy and not widespread enough
to warrant a dense fog advisory as of this writing.

Rest of today and tonight: clouds across the Bay Area will be slow
to clear through late morning. A cool and damp start to the day in
those locations. Outside of the stratus, temperatures are colder,
but not as cold as yesterday. Slightly warmer temps likely due to
some weak offshore flow as well. For this afternoon expect a few
clouds passing overhead as a weak front to the north washes out
against the ridge of high pressure. Given lingering stratus and
Tule fog went on colder side of guidance for Max Temps in the N
and E Bay with Upper 50s to 60s. Elsewhere, generally 60s to a
few near 70. For tonight the ridge overhead strengthens a little.
This will help to compress the marine layer. In the big picture,
not a lot of change expected in overall sensible weather with
clouds and fog impacting N and E Bay and some of the Bay Area.


&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 330 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025
(Sunday through Friday)

Solid agreement with model guidance through at least Friday as
high pressure dominates CA. A gradual warming trend is expected
with peak warmth Wed-Fri as temperatures soar above normal with
interior highs reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s. The challenge
next week will be N and E Bay temps and potential Tule fog impacts
keeping temperatures colder. There continues to be a few weak
systems passing well to the north, which may lead to some drizzle
over the coastal waters but land areas remain dry.

Friday and beyond - We`ll continue to monitor a lowered end chance
for a pattern change. Cluster analysis has a few clusters
breaking down the ridge. However, operational ensemble guidance
keep the ridge locked in or flattens it with zonal flow. We`ll see
how this changes over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 953 PM PST Fri Dec 5 2025

An odd mixture of stratus along the coast and IFR/Tule fog moving
into eastern portions of the CWA. Leaned on HREF guidance to capture
stratus moving in along the coast with moderate confidence that
stratus/MVFR conditions will persist through much of the overnight
period. For areas impacted by stratus, not anticipating visibilities
to drop much. For areas impacted by Tule Fog, visibilities will be
around 1-2SM with the potential for dense fog (1/4SM) to develop in
the North Bay. APC is likely to see some impact from Tule Fog
tonight but confidence is lower as to how long fog will be over the
airport. Followed persistence forecast for the timing of when
conditions will improve tomorrow (generally looking at late
morning/early afternoon clearing). Moderate onshore winds redevelop
tomorrow afternoon/evening before weakening and becoming variable to
lightly offshore overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR through much of the overnight period. Models
did not have a good grasp on the reemerging marine layer and
accompanying marine stratus tonight with only HREF guidance showing
the stratus that is currently over SFO. HREF guidance keeps low
clouds in the vicinity of SFO through the rest of tonight so opted
to utilize the HREF timing. Not anticipating fog to develop at SFO
with CIGs expected to predominantly be on the MVFR-IFR border
overnight. Winds remain light and slightly offshore overnight before
more moderate onshore winds return during the day tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. HREF guidance is best depicting the
current marine stratus setup with stratus to stay offshore tonight.
There is some potential for low clouds to reach MRY after 12Z but no
major impacts are expected at the airport. Winds remain light
overnight before more moderate onshore winds return during the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 924 PM PST Fri Dec 5 2025

Northwesterly winds have increased to fresh to strong offshore
with  localized near gale force gusts possible across the outer
waters. Winds remain elevated through the weekend and into next
week but  there may be brief periods where winds weaken across the
coastal  waters. Moderate seas with wave heights between 6 to 8
feet continue  through the weekend. Moderate, long-period
northwesterly swell  returns by mid next week with wave heights to
build.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Sunday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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