Mayflower Village, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

563
FXUS66 KLOX 210302
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
802 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...20/740 PM.

Showers and thunderstorm chances have ended this evening, as an
upper low pressure system moves east of the area. High pressure
will begin to build over the region later tonight into Saturday,
bringing a warming and drying trend to the region through the
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...20/801 PM.

***UPDATE***

The cold upper low that brought showers and thunderstorms to the
area during the last couple of days is currently centered over
far SE California, and will continue to shift east of the area
tonight. As this occurs, a ridge of high pressure will begin to
build over the West Coast later tonight into Saturday. This will
bring a warming and drying trend to the area that will persist
through early next week, along with a return of coastal low
clouds and fog. Heights aloft will be low enough tonight that a
fairly robust stratus layer is expected to move over the coast and
the coastal valleys overnight into Saturday morning. Expect to
see good clearing in the afternoon across the area, with highs in
the 70s to 80s from the interior coast to the valleys, climbing
into the low 90s for the far interior. Along the beaches, 60s to
low 70s are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

An active upper low continues to generate showers and thunderstorms
across southern California, though the dry/wet axis continues to
shift towards the east following the low into Arizona. But at
least until around 6pm the eastern portion of LA County will be
susceptible to periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms. At this
time all the activity is in San Bernardino and Riverside counties
but there`s still just enough of a westerly trajectory that could
bring those storms into LA County. Of particular concern is the
area around the Bridge fire, which has the added factor of the
mountain terrain to enhance updrafts. No flood watch is in effect
at this time but chances aren`t zero that very heavy rain could
still develop there and across other areas of eastern LA County.
Based on the lack of cumulus clouds west of there it`s unlikely,
but not impossible, that an isolated shower could drift off the
Tehachapi mountains and move into northwest LA or northeast
Ventura County this afternoon.

After this evening the weather calms down considerably, returning
to typical night and morning low clouds and fog and warming
temperatures. However, models have definitely trended not as warm
early next week as a weak upper low is now favored to develop just
west of the Bay Area Sunday and drift slowly south Monday. Still
expecting a warming trend but perhaps 2-4 degrees cooler than
earlier forecasts.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...20/209 PM.

Very low impact weather next week with highs mostly within a few
degrees of normal. A little cooling Tue-Thu with that upper low
still lingering and onshore flow increasing. Likely a steady does
of night and morning low clouds and fog at least for coastal
areas.

While the deterministic model solutions show significant
differences for the latter part of next week and beyond and at
least one solution showing a deep trough along the West Coast late
next weekend, the ensemble means favor very little change or
slight warming and overall very low impact weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2322Z.

At around 2330Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to
roughly 3300 feet. The top of the weak inversion was at 4800 feet
with a temp of 16 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF. There is a 20%
chc of TSTMs thru 01Z.

Low confidence in remaining TAFs due to the uncertainty of cigs
arrival time and height. There is a 20% chance KPRB remains VFR
thru the period. There is a chance for VLIFR conds at KSMX (40%)
and KSBP (30%) between 04Z and 16Z.

For all coastal and valley sites, arrival of cigs may be off by
+/- 5 hours from current forecast. The flight cat may be off by at
least one cat during any point once cigs arrive.

Any thunderstorms that form may produce brief +RA and gusty,
erratic winds.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance BKN010-020
may arrive as early as 02Z. There is a 10% chance for cigs
BKN008-010 between 04Z-15Z, or once cigs arrive. VFR conds are
likely by 19Z-20Z Sat. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Low confidence in hgt and timing of
CIGs, which might be off +/- 3 hours from current forceast. There
is a 30% chance of IFR cigs.

&&

.MARINE...20/801 PM.

For the Outer Waters (Central coast south to San Nicolas
Islands), high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level thru Wednesday in the northern zone
(off the Central Coast). For the southern zones (Pt Sal to San
Nicolas Island), SCA level winds will continue thru late tonight,
especially from Pt Conception south to an Nicolas Island, before
subsiding. From Saturday thru Wednesday, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA level, and then there is a 20-30%
chance of winds picking up Wednesday night throughout the Outer
Waters.

For the inner waters along the Central coast, high confidence in
conds remaining below advisory levels through Wednesday.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, moderate to high confidence in the
forecast. SCA level winds will continue in the far western
portion of the zone thru late tonight. Then, moderate to high
confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
Wednesday.

For the inner waters off the coast of LA and Orange Counties,
high confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
through Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Smith
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox