Live Oak, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

913
FXUS66 KMTR 161007
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
307 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Pleasant weather continues into the new work week. Temperatures will
be near normal today, slightly above normal Tuesday and Wednesday,
then back to normal or slightly below normal for the end of the week
into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Temperatures today will be near seasonal averages with sunny skies
inland and mostly a mix of sun and marine layer stratus along the
coast, especially the San Mateo coastline. The marine layer is pre
sent, however dry boundary layer air (PWATS ~ 25th percentile or
lower) will continue to hold off more widespread low level stratus
that is generally present during `June Gloom`. A weak trough axis
will push across our area this afternoon and evening resulting in
moderate onshore flow and gusty winds from late this morning through
later this evening across the Bay Area and higher elevations inland.
Despite the increased onshore flow the drier air aloft will help
keep widespread low marine stratus from developing again tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Relatively weak shortwave ridging will lift temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday slightly above normal, with a passing shortwave trough
bringing temperatures back to or slightly below normal for the end
of the week into next weekend. Continuing the theme of PWATs well
below normal through most of the extended, it will be difficult to
identify exactly where the most impactful marine layer clouds will
develop on a day to day basis.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with stratus along
the Tomales Bay, San Francisco Peninsula Coast, and Monterey Bay.
Generally a persistence forecast with MVFR/IFR ceilings returning to
coastal and bayside terminals. Moderate and gusty onshore winds are
expected tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Westerly winds
will prevail through the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots to be
expected. There`s a 60% probability for sub-VFR ceilings to impact
the terminal tonight with most guidance showing low-end MVFR, but
the risk for IFR is there as well. High confidence in VFR prevailing
by late-morning alongside strong and gusty westerly winds.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in SNS
deteriorating to IFR tonight with VFR and westerly winds prevailing
by late-morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts, and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through Thursday. Gale force
gusts are expected near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and
Point Sur.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 556 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

No real notable changes to the ongoing forecast fire weather wise.
Still highlighting elevated fire weather conditions across the
interior Central Coast. While not in our forecast area, a decent
veg fire developed and spread quickly to over 1k acres in SLO.
This could have easily happened in San Benito or Monterey
counties.

Observations over the last 24 hour and predicted weather continue
to show marine layer influence keeping fire weather conditions in
check for lower elevations and coastal areas. However, about
roughly 2k feet and farther inland conditions remain mild and dry
both day and night. On top of that is onshore flow leading to
breezy conditions each afternoon. Some of the winds are being
enhanced by topography leading to gustier flow in the valleys,
gaps, passes with 20-35 mph gusts.

Simply put, if you`re recreating outdoors, be one less spark in
these elevated fire weather conditions.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Tuesday
     for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Tuesday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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