Lake Nacimiento, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

437
FXUS66 KLOX 212243
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
343 PM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...21/104 PM.

A cooling trend will continue through today as low pressure
develops along the West Coast, along with increasing night through
morning low clouds and fog. Gusty northerly winds will continue
across southern Santa Barbara County, the Interstate 5 Corridor
and other interior areas through early Sunday. A warming trend for
inland areas is expected to begin Sunday but below normal
temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...21/231 PM.

An upper level trough moving across the west coast is resulting in
gusty north to northwest winds and increased critical fire
weather conditions across portions of Southwest California today.

The strongest winds will be focused across the interior areas of
southeast SBA County, interior mountains of Ventura County, and
the interior areas of LA County (including I5 Corridor and
Antelope Valley foothills), where High Wind Warnings go into
effect this afternoon through the early Sunday morning hours when
gusts of 50 to 65 mph are possible. Additionally, humidities will
continue to drop this afternoon and evening, resulting in
increased critical fire weather conditions into Sunday morning for
the majority of areas with High Wind Warnings and the Antelope
Valley. Outside of these areas, weaker wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph
are possible this afternoon through evening for the remainder of
the SBA county (save for the Cuyama Valley), as well as the Ojai
and Casitas valleys, where wind advisories are in effect.

Once winds calm down Sunday morning, the main area that will see a
return of gusty winds Sunday evening will be the SBA Southwestern
Coast and western portion of the Santa Ynez Mountain Range. Gusts
up to 45 to 50 mph will be possible, with another wind advisory
not out of the question.

Outside of the winds, weather impacts are relatively low. A brief
warm up is expected Sunday and Monday (with little change on
Tuesday) as onshore flow weakens by around 5mb and the marine
layer depth lowers by 1000 feet or so. Highs inland expected to
warm about 10 degrees from Saturday while coastal areas pick up
1-3 degrees. Even with this warmup, highs are still expected to be
3-6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/234 PM.

Weak high pressure is expected to return Wednesday and remain
through the end of the week. As a result, temperatures will
increase back to near (or even slightly above) normals for this
time of year. Not expecting any strong winds during the period
except for the typical Antelope Valley breezes each afternoon.
Overall, very seasonable weather next week that will likely carry
into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1813Z.

At 1655Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 feet deep with an
inversion top at 6000 feet with a temperature of 15 Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Low confidence
on winds at KWJF KPMD KSBA as nearby mountain wave activity could
surface strong winds at any time through the period. Expected LLWS
issues when winds are lighter at the airport. There is a moderate
chance of BLDU with MVFR vsbys at KWJF and slightly lower chances
at KPMD through the fcst period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. MVFR cigs expected to
linger first hour or two of forecast period. Followed by VFR
conds and a west wind. There is a 30% chance MVFR cigs ~020 do
not return after 08Z Sun. There is a 60% chance of east wind
component exceeding 6 kt from 10Z to 16Z (+/- 1 hour).

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance MVFR
cigs return 10-16Z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...21/213 PM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged and strong Gale Force northwest
winds beyond 20 miles from shore through Saturday night, strongest
of the whole event on Saturday. While Gale gusts have not
materialized so far for the nearshore Central Coast waters and
western Santa Barbara Channel, the Saturday peak (this evening)
is more pronounced with the highest risk of the week. Some
projections even push the winds very close to the Ventura Coast
(25% chance). As such, Gale Warnings are in effect for those
areas. All waters will see building and hazardously steep short
period seas. While winds will likely not reach Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) off Los Angeles and Orange Counties, a SCA is in
effect for what should the the steepest seas on Saturday. Small
craft should stay in safe harbor, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding
seas for the first half of next week, with abnormally large high
tides each evening. High-end SCA winds are still likely for the
waters beyond 20 miles for shore on Monday, but winds will lower
to more seasonal speeds by Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...21/342 PM.

An unseasonably strong upper level trough of low pressure is moving through
the region this afternoon through tonight. West to north winds will continue to
increase this afternoon and evening with gusts of 30 to 50 mph bringing
widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the mountains,
interior and southern Santa Barbara County. Even stronger and locally damaging
wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph are expected this afternoon into tonight across the
Santa Barbara County interior mountains, Ventura County mountains, I-5 corridor,
and Antelope Valley including the western foothills. These stronger winds
combined with humidities lowering to between 10 and 25 percent
will likely bring critical fire weather conditions to these areas, resulting in
the Red Flag Warning which is valid through tonight. While locally stronger winds
are still expected to surface across portions of the eastern Santa Ynez range
later this afternoon into tonight, it no longer appears they will have a sufficient
duration of strong wind/low humidity overlap, resulting in the cancellation of the
Fire Weather Watch for this area, and just including them with brief critical headlines.
Areas in a Red Flag Warning this afternoon through tonight will have the
highest risk for rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior, with the threat
of long range spotting.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
      zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 350-356-382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund/MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RK/Black
FIRE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox