Joshua Tree, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXUS65 KVEF 021728
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1028 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
possible through midweek as sufficient moisture and instability
remain in the area. Precipitation totals should be light and most
activity will take place over high terrain. The area slowly dries
out and temperatures begin to climb as a ridge builds later this
week.

&&

.UPDATE...

The upper low that pushed through the region combined with plenty of
low level moisture from former tropical storm Alvin brought
widespread precipitation to much of Arizona along with a few areas
in southern Nevada. The showers have ended across southern Nevada,
but will continue for northwest Arizona for the next few hours. As
With plenty of moisture still available we will be looking at
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping early this afternoon across
central Nevada and Inyo County. Since the air is a bit dryer in
those areas, DCAPE is forecast to be between 1000-1300 j/kg. This
could lead to the potential for strong wind gusts this afternoon.
Another area to watch late this afternoon will be storms developing
over southern Lincoln County and pushing into northeast Clark County
and eventually Mohave County. These could potentially produce
additional storms in Clark County along with gusty outflow winds.
Current forecast in good shape and no updates needed.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

The center of the low pressure system will migrate from Arizona into
the Rocky Mountains today, while another low moves southeast along
the California coast. The forecast area sits between these two
features. Very little moisture was scoured out from the eastern
system and PWATS between 200 and 300 percent of normal remain over
the area. Showers are currently over parts of Mohave and Clark
counties early this morning, producing light rainfall and an
occasional lightning strike. Lingering moisture combined with
instability from clearing skies and surface heating should allow for
another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. CAMs show
most of the activity starting in the southern Great Basin and
eastern Sierra this afternoon where clearing is the best, moving
southeast into Mohave and Clark counties in the evening. Most storms
should take place over high terrain, but a few of the stronger cells
may make it into the valleys. Dry low levels suggest that most of
the precipitation will evaporate before it hits the ground with only
light amounts at the surface. Some storms may produce gusty outflows
in excess of 40 mph.

More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
on Tuesday and Wednesday as the Pacific low pressure system to moves
inland near the international border. Anomalously high moisture
remains as seen in continued PWATs between 200 and 300 percent of
normal. Most activity should take place over high terrain where lift
is the greatest. Forecast soundings suggest these storms will also
be high based, capable of producing gusty outflows and only light
precipitation at the surface. The HREF indicates 1000 to 1500 J/kg
of DCAPE tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Weak northwest flow will continue across the region late in the
week.  A series of weak short waves will move through the flow and
interact with lingering moisture, resulting in slight PoPs through
early Friday.  The best chances will be over the southern Great
Basin and Arizona Strip.  The remaining moisture should move east of
the area by Friday afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation
chances. Despite the shortwaves, a high-pressure ridge building over
the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico will result in increased 500
mb heights across the Desert Southwest. As such, temperatures will
climb back to 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms heading into the
weekend, and temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal
heading into next week. This will result in desert valleys
experiencing high temperatures in the 100s once again, and
widespread "Moderate" Heat Risk from Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Most likely, the terminals will see light winds favoring
the east early that become south to southeast at 8-10KT around 21Z
today, then becoming diurnal after sunset. There is a low chance
that a push of northeast winds moves through the valley around 06Z-
if this did occur, northeast winds would likely gust over 20KT
between 06Z-09Z before diminishing for the rest of the night. On
Tuesday, south to southeast winds will develop again and should be
similar to what occurs today. A few thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon in the nearby mountains to the north and west, but in
general not expecting convection or thunderstorm impacts today.
There is a better chance, about 30%, for nearby thunderstorms to
develop in and around the valley on Tuesday after 20Z which could
produce lightning, sudden gusty erratic winds, moderate to heavy
rain, and CIGs below 8000ft

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light rain currently in
Mohave County will diminish in the next hour or so. Convection this
afternoon will favor the terrain of Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave
counties as well as in the Sierra. Any thunderstorms today could
produce lightning, CIGs to 5000ft, brief heavy rain, and sudden
gusty winds. The highest threat of outflow winds will be in the
Sierra, including at KBIH where southeast winds could be interrupted
by west to southwest outflow winds between 21Z and 03Z. THe highest
threat for heavy rain and 5000ft CIGS will be in Clark and Mohave
counties. Low confidence that a complex of thunderstorms in
southwest Utah will push an outflow through northeast Clark and
northern Mohave after 00Z tonight with gusts over 30KT possible.
Outside of convection, south to southwest winds around 10 KT will
develop across the region this afternoon. Light winds return tonight
before similar winds return late Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Additional convection may develop Tuesday afternoon along and south
of the I-15 as well as in the Sierra.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gorelow
SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Planz
AVIATION...Nickerson

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