Isla Vista, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS66 KLOX 091137
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
337 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...08/743 PM.

Mild and dry weather is expected through this weekend and into
Monday. Night through morning low clouds and fog will return to
coastal areas and valleys later in the weekend or early next week.
A passing weather system will bring locally gusty winds early
next week, along with areas of light precipitation Monday
afternoon and night. It will be drier and warmer later in the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...09/300 AM.

Another cold morning in wind sheltered valley and interior
locations. The Freeze Warning for the Antelope Valley will end at
900 AM Saturday.

Today will be a very pleasant day with a weak ridge overhead and
weak offshore flow at the sfc. The increased hgts will lead to
some warming in the interior but the weaker offshore flow will
allow an earlier and stronger seabreeze which will cool most of
the csts/vlys. Most max temps will end up in the upper 60s to mid
70s. The csts/vlys will be 2 to 3 degrees blo normal while the
interior will be about 2 degrees above normal.

Not much change on Sunday. Some low clouds may develop across the
Central Coast, but otherwise it will be a mostly sunny day with
max temps close to today`s values.

A trof and a weak cold front will approach and over Srn CA Monday
and Monday evening. The first effect will be the creation of a
much more robust and extensive coastal marine layer cloud deck.
In the afternoon, after the low clouds dissipate, the cloud cover
will slowly increase as the trof and front approach. A chance of
rain will develop over SLO and western SBA counties in the
afternoon. The lower hgts, onshore flow and cloud cover will knock
3 to 6 locally 8 degrees off of the max temperatures everywhere
but the Antelope Vly where downsloping westerly winds will warm
the area by 6 degrees.

The chance of rain will continue over the Central Coast in the
evening and a slight chc of rain will spread as far south as
western LA county. After midnight as the front washes out over
VTA.LA counties there will be slight chc of rain through about
dawn.

Limited moisture and dynamics will make this system a minimal rain
producer with only trace to a tenth an inch amounts fcst.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...09/336 AM.

Skies will turn mostly sunny on Tuesday as the trof exits and a
weak ridge builds in over the state. The N/S gradient will
quickly turn offshore and build to near 6 mb as a sfc high builds
in north of the area. Northerly winds will begin to build after
midnight and will likely peak around 900 am. The strongest winds
will occur in the SW corner of SBA county and the I-5 corridor.
The Calabasas area and the Santa Monica mtns will also see gusty
winds. Advisories look likely the SW corner of SBA county with a
40% chance of advisory level winds through the I-5 corridor. Cool
air pouring in from the north will cool the interior by 5 to 10
degrees. The offshore flow, however, will warm the csts/vlys by 2
to 3 degrees. All max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

3 to 5 mb of offshore flow develops Wednesday morning. There is no
upper or thermal support to aid the winds created by the offshore
flow so this looks like mild Santa Ana event with just some 15 to
25 mph canyon winds in the morning. Hgts will rise and will
combine with the offshore flow and lack of cool air advection to
bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the csts/vlys and 4 to 8
locally 10 degrees to the interior. There will be plenty of highs
in the 70s along with a smattering of lower 80s.

A trof will approach the area Thursday bringing onshore flow some
clouds and 2 to 4 degrees of cooling.

A stronger trof will move into the area sometime Thursday night
through Saturday. There is still a great deal of uncertainty as
exemplified by the large spread in ensemble solutions about the
timing and possibilities of rain during this period. As a result
chance/slight chc (40-20 percent chance) POPs are smeared across
a 48 hour time frame. At this time this system does not look like
much a rainmaker a quarter inch at best.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1135Z.

At 0820Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX. There was a surface-
based inversion up to around 3000 feet with a temperature near 17
degrees Celsius.

High confidence in CAVU conditions for all TAF sites.

KLAX...High confidence in the 06Z TAF. Any east wind component
between 12Z and 18Z Saturday should remain below 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in the 06Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/159 AM.

For the Outer Waters, buoy observations support expiring Small
Craft Advisories for PZZ676 and PZZ673 shortly (11z). There is
30-40% chance of SCAs beginning Saturday evening/night, mostly
from Pt Conception to San Nicolas Island. Similar chances of SCA
winds Sunday, but higher confidence in at least SCA level winds
late Monday and Tuesday, with a 20% chance for GALES. Seas are
expected to remain well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through Monday, before an abrupt increase to near 15 ft on
Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, winds should remain
below SCA levels through Sunday. There is a 20% of SCA conds
Monday through Wednesday.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 20-30% chance for SCA
level winds during the afternoon/evening hours Sunday, with the
best chances for western portions and near Santa Cruz Island.
Higher confidence in more widespread SCA level winds Monday (50 to
60% chance). There is a chance for GALES into the Channel late
Monday, but low confidence in maximum wind speeds and duration.

For the Southern Inner Waters, conditions are expected to be
below SCA levels through Sunday. Better chances for SCA winds
Monday for northern and western portions of the zone (30% chance).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Freeze Warning in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zone
      383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Smith/Black
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis/Black
SYNOPSIS...Cohen/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox