Frazier Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

352
FXUS66 KHNX 091022
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
222 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There is a 75 to 95 percent chance of a high temperature of
at least 70 degrees through Monday in the San Joaquin Valley
before lowering to 10 percent or less on Tuesday. The
probabilities climb back up to 25 to 55 percent for Wednesday
and Thursday.

2. There is a 25 to 45 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of
rain or more between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning for
most of the San Joaquin Valley.

3. There is a 30 to 45 percent probability of 3 inches of snow
or more above 7000 feet between Monday afternoon and Tuesday
morning near Yosemite with lower probabilities and snowfall
amounts further south in the Sierra Nevada.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Central California will finish the week with temperatures
running a bit warm and dry. These conditions will continue into
Sunday before change occurs on Monday. In the meanwhile, the dry
air over Central California has been allowing overnight lows to
drop into the upper 30s with mountainous locations reaching the
freezing mark. With surface pressure gradients from KSFO to
KLAS at near zero, the wind will add no help toward the near
freezing across the area. No change in this pattern is expected
this weekend with Mondays storm ushering a change to more
wintry type conditions. A storm will enter the region on Monday
with current timing over Central California more toward the mid-
day to afternoon hours as precipitation over-takes the region.

High-Res short-range Ensemble Mean analysis is showing high
confidence with the intermediate weather pattern of dry and warm
conditions. While short-range ensemble analysis does show a
very weak disturbance passing through the area this afternoon,
little effect will be observed ahead of the disturbance that has
a higher likelihood of introducing precipitation to Central
California. That disturbance has consistently been progged to
reach Central California on Monday. Earliest onset of
precipitation expected around day-break on Monday with ensemble
mean start time of precipitation closer to Noon on Monday
(Veterans Day). At that time near Noon, Probability of
Measurable Precipitation (PoP) rises to 30-45 percent across the
northern portion of the district (Merced to Yosemite NP). Peak
precipitation period will occur during the afternoon hours when
PoP reaches 45-55 percent. These mid-range values will be a
result of having Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of
precipitation accumulation not going pass a tenth (0.10) of an
inch. PoE is in the 50-60 percent range for accumulation under a
tenth of an inch, but drop to 10-20 percent when PoE goes above
a tenth. Therefore, confidence is higher with the precipitation
forecast of near a tenth of an inch accumulating during storm
passage. In addition, moisture analysis does show precip-water
plume diminishing before arriving into Central California
supporting lower precipitation values.

Post-frontal on Monday night will introduce strong winds across
Central California. Along with a tightening surface pressure
gradient, ensemble mean upper level winds in the 50-70 mph range
will support the windy conditions expected Monday night. Favored
area include the Crest of the Sierra Nevada and the Eastern Kern
County area of the Tehachapi East Slopes and Mojave Desert.

Long-range ensemble analysis shows a transition toward weak
ridging in the mid-week period. Between Thursday and Friday,
ensemble hint toward the development of a deeper trough entering
the West Coast. While moisture analysis is trending higher with
precip-water entering the area, will monitor the latter storm
for higher accumulation values.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail as percentages of maintaining VFR
conditions across the Central CA Interior are in the 94-96
percent range for the next 24 hours. A 3-5 percent probability
of winds reaching 12 knots in the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Saturday November 9 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings,
Madera, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced
County, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford