Frazier Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXUS66 KHNX 230502
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
902 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warming trend into next week.

2. A warmer system slides into Northern California with
precipitation in the northern portions of the Sierra Nevada
through Wednesday morning. Snow levels will rise to 9,500 to
10,000 feet by Wednesday morning.

3. A Marginal Risk (at least 5%) for excessive rainfall exists
on Tuesday for the Sierra Nevada and into the foothills for
areas north of Tulare County

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.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures continued to climb this afternoon and latest models
continue to rise through the week thanks to a ridge of high
pressure over the area. However, ensembles show large amounts
of moisture to advect into Northern California despite the ridge
budging slightly south. Models have continued to back off on
precipitation amounts as there is a 5 to 15 percent chance of
even a tenth of an inch of rain in 24 hours ending 4 am
Wednesday. Merced has the highest probabilities in the Valley
with a 40 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain ending 4
am Wednesday. The foothills and Sierra Nevada also see a
decrease in precipitation with the Yosemite Area seeing a peak
probability of 15 to 30 percent chance of an inch of rain in 24
hours ending 4 am Wednesday. There currently is a marginal risk
of Excessive Rainfall on Tuesday because of the rain amounts.
However, the foothills of Mariposa and Madera Counties see a 40
to 65 percent chance of a quarter of an inch of rain which is
lower than before with the rest of the foothills at 15 percent
chance or less for a quarter of an inch.

The ridge will restrengthen Thursday into the weekend as the
potential for 70s continues from Tuesday. Wednesday has a 65 to
80 percent chance of highs of at least 70 before dropping off on
Thursday and Friday to 45 to 70 percent. The probabilities
rebound on Saturday to 70 to 80 percent but drop off again
slightly next Sunday to 55 to 75 percent. This favors the CPC
outlooks which shows a 70 to 80 percent chance of above average
temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. There also
is a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average precipitation in
both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across central California for the next 24
hours.


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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  02/21/2026 12:51
EXPIRES: 02/22/2026 23:59

On Sunday February 22 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties.
Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford