Frazier Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

419
FXUS66 KHNX 241141
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
341 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A strong winter storm system will continue to impact Central
California through mid week.

2. The winter storm system will bring an additional round of
precipitation to the area on Monday and Tuesday. Portions of the
San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada Foothills may see
moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times with moderate to heavy
snowfall rates in the Sierra Nevada.

3. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Sierra
Nevada above 6,500 feet through 4 PM Wednesday. Total snowfall
accumulations of 10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet
at the higher elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles
per hour. The probability of receiving another 24 inches of snow
by 4 PM Tuesday is 84% for Tuolumne Meadows and 82% for Tioga
Pass.

4. The probability of receiving at least one inch of rain by
Wednesday is 85% for Merced, 90% in Fresno, 80% in Visalia, and
50% in Bakersfield.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rain showers continue this morning in the San Joaquin Valley
mainly from Fresno and northeast. There are snow showers over
the Sierra from near Camp Nelson up through Yosemite NP. The
high resolution deterministic and ensembles when viewing the
composite radar projections for today show a general decrease in
showers activity throughout the day. Overnight tonight towards 4
am Monday morning the first wave of the next part of the storm
hits the region and continues into Wednesday.

A complex of upper level low pressure continues swirling around
the NE Pacific Ocean this morning. A notable shortwave is firing
up some Oceanic thunderstorms, and this activity shall remain
well to the north of the forecast. The main highlight from the
Satellite view this morning using the H2O vapor channel shows
the coming Atmosperic River (AR) targeting Central California.
There is a lull in the action between the rounds of
precipitation for the region and snow for the high Sierra. The
winter storm warning will continue through the period, even with
the limited precipitation activity today and this evening, into
Wednesday afternoon with the multi-round event. Focusing on
Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT), the signal of an AR,
for the intensity of the event. The NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles
highlight an above 99th percentile event when compared to
climatology Monday through Wednesday morning with the peak of
the IVT hitting on Tuesday. When viewing the EC extreme
forecast index (EFI) King`s Canyon is being highlighted for the
significant precipitation event. The EFI highlights most of the
San Joaquin Valley and Sierra. 400-500 kg/m/s IVT values,
moderate levels, target the region from both the major models
increasing the confidence in an extreme event. WPC WSSI also
highlights extreme levels of winter impacts above 8,000 Feet in
the Sierra centered around Kings Canyon for Tuesday. Snow
probabilities for more than 18 inches are in the 80 percent
range for the highest elevations including Tioga Pass and
Tuolumne Meadows. Locations in the 6000 to 9000 feet range are
looking more at probabilities of more than 8 inches of snow with
65 to 90 percent for Badger Pass and Huntington Lake. The fall
off in the probabilities is brought on by the rising snow levels
with the significant warming aloft with the AR increasing
warmth through the event. The faster or slow the onset of the
warmer temperatures will cause an adjustment in the snowfall for
the Sierra. On the foothill and valley locations the
probability of one inch of rainfall Tuesday ranges from the low
end near Bakersfield of 50% and up to near 99% for Mariposa and
foothill locations. There are some possibilities of increased
rainfall rates in the San Joaquin Valley with a slim threat of
thunderstorms to enhance rainfall on Monday afternoon and
evening. The NBM probabilities are mainly 5 to 15 percent for
thunder. The storms would be low top developing in lower levels.
The low top nature and rising mid level temperatures could keep
the storms as enhanced rain showers since the -20C isotherm
might just be out of reach to initiate lightning for the
familiar boom of thunder. However, the heavy cells are
possibility even without the sound of thunder.

Late Wednesday through early Friday morning a break in the
action with a short lived ridge moving through the region.

Friday into Saturday brings another, however much weaker, system
to Central California for more valley and foothill rain showers
with mountain snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFs: KMCE/KMER will start out MVFR with a low probability
of IFR VSBY through 16Z then VFR. KFAT will have a few SHRA
floating around the field through 15Z then NSW with VFR expected
through the period. KVIS VFR with a very low probability of LIFR
with VSBY, not enough for the TAF, from 12Z-16Z. BFL VFR with a
probability of the MVFR cloud deck floating in and out through
16Z then VFR.

Elsewhere: The Sierra can expect mountain obcurations to
continue with predominate IFR through the next 24 hours. The
foothills from Three Rivers down into the KTSP highlands can
expect MVFR with pockets of LIFR, KPTV VSBY 1/4-1SM this morning
with OVC002 cigs for example. This will improve after 18Z.
Desert is solid VFR for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  11/23/2024 14:38
EXPIRES: 11/24/2024 23:59
On Sunday November 24 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced,
and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and
Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ323-
326>331.
&&

$$

Operations......Proton
DSS/WX WATCH....DCH

weather.gov/hanford