Elizabeth Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

055
FXUS66 KLOX 232223
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
223 PM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...23/100 PM.

A significant high surf event with areas of coastal flooding is
expected through at least Tuesday. A weak weather system will
bring a couple hours of light rain to many areas Tuesday along
with much cooler temperatures. A warming trend will start
Wednesday and continue through the week with some gusty north
winds at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...23/215 PM.

***Significant high-surf event with coastal flooding expected
 through Tuesday***

Valley areas warmed up nicely today under ample sunshine and light
offshore flow. However, coastal areas remained cooler as low
clouds and fog struggled to clear. No significant changes to the
forecast in the short term at least. Another weakening storm
system will pass through the area Tuesday. This will be a light
rain event at best and some areas across LA/Ventura Counties may
see little to no rain from this. Northwest SLO County still
looking at around a half inch of rain, and locally higher amounts
in the coastal mountains. But like the last few storms this one
will weaken rapidly as it moves south and rain amounts will drop
off quickly. The timing still is the same, mainly in the morning
up north then to early afternoon in the south. And just a couple
hours of light rain in any one location before moving on. Up in
the Grapevine area the duration of rain will be a little longer as
the increasing northerly flow there will keep a chance of showers
going a few more hours into the overnight hours, but still amounts
under a quarter inch there with possibly some light snow down to
around 5000 feet.

Following the storm gusty northerly winds will develop at times,
strongest in the mountains and Santa Ynez Range Tuesday afternoon
and evening, but also getting into the Santa Clarita and San
Fernando Valleys and some gusty winds as well along the coast.
Will likely need some wind advisories in some or all of those
areas later Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Christmas day and Thursday look sunny and dry but on the cooler
side with some lingering gusty north winds in and through the
mountains, especially the Santa Ynez Range and I5 corridor.

Please reference the High Surf Warning and High Surf
Advisory, as well as the Coastal Flood Advisory, regarding the
significant high-surf event.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...23/217 PM.

Gusty north to northwest winds expected to persist through the
rest of the week and into next weekend, strongest in the mountains
and below passes and canyons. Most areas will remain rain free
with the possible exception of the Central Coast where another
weakening system will bring a chance of light showers later Friday
and again next Sunday. Amounts no more than a quarter inch each
time.

Otherwise, most areas will experience a slow warming trend. Warmer
valleys expected to see low to to mid 70s while coastal areas
stay mostly in the mid to high 60s. Minimal stratus expected
through the period with light to moderate offshore flow in place.
Longer range ensembles not really offering much hope for rain
through the first week of January except for a couple passing
glances across the Central Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1806Z.

At 15Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 3000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

Overall, moderate to low confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Generally,
expect conds to become mostly VFR by afternoon. High clouds will
linger across the CWA thru most of the fcst pd. Low clouds are
expected to become widespread tonight for the coastal/valley
areas. Rain chances north of Pt Conception for the latter half of
the fcst pd.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 20%
chance of VLIFR conds (1/4SM, VV001-VV002) from 06z-16z. No
significant east wind expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 30-40%
chance minimum flight cats never fall below MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...23/222 PM.

Large, long period W to NW swell will affect the waters this
week. Seas will peak at 15-20 ft in the Outer Waters. Local sets
up to 25 ft are possible. For the inner waters, seas will peak at
14-18 ft N of Pt. Sal, 9-12 ft in the Santa Barbara Channel, and
7-10 ft in the southern inner waters. These conditions pose a risk
for damaging breaking waves at times at the Morro Bay and Ventura
Harbor entrances.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas will likely continue in the Outer
Waters and Inner Waters off the Central Coast thru the week.
There may be a brief reduction in seas Wed eve/Thu morning.
SCA level seas will affect the Santa Barbara thru at least
Wed, and the southern inner waters thru Tue night.

Along with the high seas, SCA level winds will likely affect the
Outer Waters much of the time thru Thu night, with winds below
SCA levels in some areas late tonight and early Tue. In the inner
waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds
this afternoon thru Tue morning (best chances just south of Pt.
San Luis), then SCA conds are likely (70% chance) Tue afternoon
thru Wednesday evening. In the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level
winds are likely (70-80% chance) during the afternoon/eve hours
today thru Wed, with a 40-50% chance Thu afternoon/eve. In the
southern inner waters, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds
this afternoon/eve, and a 70-80% chance Tue afternoon/eve.

There is a 30-40% chance of GALE force gusts from Pt Conception
to San Nicolas Island and into far western portions of the Inner
Waters S of Pt Conception Tue afternoon into Wed morning.

&&

.BEACHES...23/526 AM.

A large and long period west to northwest swell will bring
dangerously high surf, especially to west and northwest facing
beaches at times through the week.

Surf will peak at 18 to 25 feet on the Central Coast, 12 to 18
feet on the Ventura County Coast and 8 to 12 feet of the west
facing beaches of L.A. County. Even on west-facing beaches on the
south coast of SBA County, surf will peak at 6 to 10 feet. The
peak of the surf is expected this afternoon into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of the week, advisory level surf is expected at
times, with confidence highest on the Central Coast and on the
Ventura County Coast.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible near the times of
high tides through at least Tuesday morning on the Central Coast
and the Ventura County Coast, with nuisance to minor coastal
flooding elsewhere. Please reference our SRF and CFW products for
more details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 87-349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Warning in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Friday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/DB/Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox