El Verano, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

158
FXUS66 KMTR 160432
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
932 PM PDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 203 PM PDT Sun Mar 15 2026

 - Early season, long duration heat wave brings record-breaking
   temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk through the week

 - Elevated potential for grass fires through the week due to
   warm and dry conditions with periods of moderate offshore winds

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 203 PM PDT Sun Mar 15 2026
(This evening through Monday)

A very shallow marine layer remains in place today and should keep
conditions near the coast cooler than areas inland. However, the
warm-up is well underway this afternoon as temperatures have warmed
into the upper 70s across the interior with maximum temperatures
forecast to be in the low to mid 80s. These temperatures are
resulting in Minor HeatRisk this afternoon and are some 10-20
degrees F above seasonal averages. 500MB heights are around 591
decameters (dam), however the ridge is placed about 380 miles west
of the region over the Pacific.

Overnight, temperatures will cool into the low to mid 50s in the
lower elevations. However, temperatures in the higher elevations
look to largely remain in the 60s. There is a low end potential for
coastal and valley fog tonight, yet will be less widespread compared
to this morning as the marine layer looks to be more compressed.

The warming trend ramps up on Monday and will continue throughout
much of the week! This is when temperatures climb to some 15-25
degrees above average across the Bay Area and Central Coast. More
widespread Moderate HeatRisk expands across the region resulting in
the issuance of a Heat Advisory for all of the region from 10 AM
Monday through 8 PM Friday. Forecast maximum high temperatures are
in the upper 70s to mid 80s near the coast with mid 80s to low 90s
across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 203 PM PDT Sun Mar 15 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The high pressure will become centered overhead by Wednesday with
500MB heights approaching 595 dam over the Desert Southwest. This is
when some of the warmest, most interior areas reach the low to mid
90s while coastal areas remain in the 80s as 850MB temperatures
reach or exceed 20 degrees C. There is even the potential (30%-70%)
for Pinnacles National Park to reach 100 degrees F Wednesday through
Friday (some of the warmest days of the upcoming week).

From previous forecaster, "This is our first major heatwave of the
year and it is going to be a marathon. We are primarily expecting
Moderate HeatRisk with some relief overnight from overnight lows in
the upper 50s to low 60s. There are patches of Major HeatRisk
(impacts most people) in the higher elevations of the Santa Cruz
Mountains and interior Central Coast next week. Given the long
duration of this heat event, susceptibility to heat related
illnesses will increase throughout the week. If you are going to be
outside for prolonged periods of time make sure you are drinking
plenty of water and allowing time to rest in the shade. Never leave
people or pets unattended in the car. If possible, avoid going
outside during the peak afternoon heat (approx. 10AM - 4/5PM). Heat
Advisories will be in effect for much of the Bay Area and Central
Coast Monday through Friday with some potential to expand into next
weekend.

Expect increased potential for grass fires next week as much above
normal temperatures cure small, fine fuels (grass). Offshore winds
will remain light to moderate which will help mitigate how much any
fires that do develop can grow. If you are participating in any
outdoor activities (camping, off-roading, hiking, etc) exercise
caution when using fire and be aware that the risk of grass fires
will be elevated next week."

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 932 PM PDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Widespread VFR and moderate winds last into the night. Expect winds
to become light across the region overnight, with some slight
reductions in visibility from mist and spotty fog. Visibilities
improve in the mid to late morning. Winds increase slightly into
Monday afternoon. Winds become light again that night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. West winds are
reducing and are becoming light. Winds become light and variable
into Monday morning with some slight reductions in visibilities.
West winds build again Monday afternoon and last into late that
night before becoming light again.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the late night. Expect light
to moderate winds through the evening that become light into the
night. Some pockets of mist look to reduce visibilities in the late
night and through the morning. Conditions improve by the late
morning and early afternoon as northwest winds build. These winds
reduce into the evening and become light and variable into that
night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 932 PM PDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Breezy to gusty northerly winds linger in the Northern outer
waters into Monday night before easing. Winds across the waters
will continue to reduce into the work week. Sea heights will stay
moderate due to a combination of wind waves and low southerly
swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 133 AM PDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for March 15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th.

Location  Mar 15      Mar 16      Mar 17      Mar 18

Santa Rosa       88 in 2004  91 in 2004  87 in 1996  84 in 2010
San Rafael       83 in 1972  87 in 1972  84 in 1972  80 in 1996
Kentfield        85 in 2004  86 in 2004  87 in 1914  89 in 1914
Napa             86 in 2004  88 in 2004  92 in 1914  87 in 1914
Richmond         85 in 2004  84 in 1972  83 in 2004  78 in 1996
Livermore        83 in 1972  88 in 1972  87 in 1972  86 in 2004
San Francisco    82 in 2004  85 in 1914  85 in 1914  86 in 1914
SFO Airport      81 in 2004  82 in 2004  82 in 2004  77 in 2004
Redwood City     84 in 2004  84 in 2004  85 in 2004  84 in 2004
Half Moon Bay    74 in 1974  78 in 1972  83 in 2004  75 in 1978
Oakland Museum   85 in 2004  85 in 2004  85 in 2004  81 in 2004
San Jose         82 in 2004  85 in 1914  88 in 1914  87 in 1914
Salinas Airport  83 in 1972  87 in 2004  87 in 2004  84 in 1960

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for the entire month of March.

Location

Santa Rosa       91 on March 16, 2004
San Rafael       88 on March 25, 1952
Kentfield        91 on March 28, 1923
Napa             92 on March 17, 1914
Richmond         87 on March 31, 2021
Livermore        90 on March 25 and 26, 2025
San Francisco    87 on March 11, 2005
SFO Airport      85 on March 25, 1952
Redwood City     89 on March 31, 2011
Half Moon Bay    83 on March 31, 2000 and March 17, 2004
Oakland Museum   88 on March 11, 2005
San Jose         89 on March 14, 2015
Salinas Airport  92 on March 14, 2015

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006-
     502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea