Desert Center, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

825
FXUS65 KPSR 051935
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1235 PM MST Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the nineties
  will be common through much of the upcoming week as high
  pressure prevails over the area.

- A weak weather system will traverse the region Monday, providing
  slightly cooler temperatures and chances for scattered showers
  and isolated thunderstorms with activity mainly confined to the
  Arizona high terrain.

- Another stronger weather system is likely to affect the region
  late this week into next weekend, leading to breezy conditions
  and cooling temperatures as well as the potential for
  increasing rain chances across portions of the area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Objective analysis shows ridging encompassing across much of the
western CONUS with 500 mb height fields today expected to peak
around 580 dam. Under abundant sunshine, afternoon high temperatures
across the lower deserts will top out in the low to mid 90s.
Overall, tranquil weather is expected for this Easter Sunday.
Heading into tonight and Monday morning, another easterly wind surge
similar to was observed this morning is expected with peak gusts
ranging between 25-35 mph across the higher terrain areas east of
Phoenix and between 15-25 mph across the lower elevations.

A weak mid-level disturbance will move through the region during the
day on Monday, and with moisture levels increasing somewhat from the
easterly wind surge, this will be sufficient to generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of the AZ High
Country during the afternoon hours. Across the lower deserts, there
will be too much dry air in place in the low-levels to impede any
convective activity from materializing. As this disturbance moves
across, there will be an abundance mid to upper-level clouds that
could result in some occasional virga across the lower deserts.
The abundance of clouds will cause afternoon highs to cool by 5-7
degrees from the high temperatures today, particularly across
south-central AZ, as readings will top out in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees. Across the western deserts, temperatures will
still manage to reach the low 90s as there will be a bit more
sunshine. Heading into Tuesday, as the disturbance moves east of
the area and drier air filters back into the region causing clear
skies, temperatures will rebound back into the mid 90s across the
lower deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Upper level ridging will continue to prevail through Thursday
with afternoon highs in the lower deserts generally staying in the
low to mid 90s. By Friday models are pointing towards a stronger
upper-level low progressing into our region from the eastern
Pacific. Unfortunately, at this time a lot of uncertainly can be
seen on cluster analysis in the exact timing and potency of this
system. However, even with the uncertainty, temperatures will
most likely begin to trend back to near normal by Saturday, with
afternoon highs in the mid 80s. Continued monitoring of this
upcoming system will be needed, especially for increasing moisture
and rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Periods of gusty east winds with lofted dust/haze will be the
greatest weather issues through Monday afternoon under thickening
mid/high cloud decks and occasional virga. Confidence is excellent
that east winds will prevail the entire time frame, however timing
of stronger gusts carries much lower forecast confidence. Current
mid morning/early afternoon gusts should abate by late afternoon.
However, some model output suggests gusts resuming overnight at a
very unusual time as an easterly LLJ develops. These gusty winds
have/will result in lofted dust resulting in poor slantwise
visibility at times, particularly around sunset/sunrise.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No significant weather impacts will exist through Monday afternoon
under thickening mid/high cigs. While prolonged periods of light and
variable winds will be common, confidence is good that a westerly
component will generally prevail KIPL and northerly at KBLH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist
during the upcoming work week. Afternoon MinRHs today will bottom
near 10% across the lower elevations and near 20% across the far
eastern districts before peaking on Monday to around 10-20%
across the lower elevations and 25-40% across the far eastern
districts. Lower humidity values return during the middle portion
of the week. The increase in moisture will result in some shower
and thunderstorm activity, mainly confined to northern and far
eastern AZ on Monday. Another round of elevated easterly winds is
expected Monday morning, particularly across the higher terrain
areas of south-central AZ where peak gusts upwards of 25-35 mph
are possible. Lighter winds expected during the middle portion of
the week before increasing once again by the end of the week with
the approach of another weather system.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Ryan