Central Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

747
FXUS66 KLOX 211816
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1116 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...21/158 AM.

A cooling trend will continue through today as low pressure
develops along the West Coast, along with increasing night through
morning low clouds and fog. Gusty northerly winds will continue
across southern Santa Barbara County, the Interstate 5 Corridor
and other interior areas through early Sunday. A warming trend for
inland areas is expected to begin Sunday but below normal
temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...21/936 AM.

***UPDATE***

This morning the marine layer clouds have been going head-to-head
with the offshore flow across the interior. The marine layer is
currently about 3900 ft deep and the clouds were able to expand
into the foothills (coastal side) of the interior mountains
across Ventura and LA Counties, and into the southeast portion of
Santa Barbara (SBA) County this morning. However, the
introduction of offshore flow this morning has started to cause
clearing for Santa Barbara South Coast and the Ventura Valleys.
Clouds will continue to burnoff this morning, leaving for a mostly
sunny day.

As for winds, will be looking at expanding wind advisories for
southwestern SBA County. These areas will include the SBA
southwest Coast, the western portion of the Santa Ynez Mountain
Range, and the SBA County Central Coast beaches. Current model
runs have trended weaker for the eastern Santa Ynez Range, and the
event for this location is looking more borderline warning level
wind gusts and only for a brief amount of time. Left the warning
as is, however, because wind damage could still occur, and the
strongest winds (around 60 mph gusts) will be possible near
Montecito Hills.

Besides potentially expanding wind headlines, the forecast looks
in shape and no other changes are anticipated.


***From Previous Discussion***

Strong north to northwest winds continue across portions of the
area early this morning, especially southern Santa Barbara County
and the I5 corridor, and the Santa Lucia range in SLO County.
Expecting this to continue through Sunday evening before an upper
low moves into Central California. In the meantime, winds gusting
to 35-50 mph are likely in those areas with isolated gusts to 60
mph possible creating fire weather concerns due to low humidities
as well. Strong winds are also continuing over the outer coastal
waters with gusts to 50 mph.

Outside of those areas, weather impacts are relatively low.
Temperatures will cool a few more degrees today, keeping highs
below 80 in most valleys and 60s to low 70s elsewhere. Low clouds
are expanding northwest across LA and Ventura Counties this
morning with tops around 2500 feet.

A brief warm up is expected Sunday and Monday as onshore flow
weakens by around 5mb and the marine layer depth lowers by 1000
feet or so. Highs inland expected to warm about 10 degrees from
Saturday while coastal areas pick up 1-3 degrees. Even with this
warmup, highs are still expected to be 3-6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/231 AM.

Weak high pressure is expected to return Wed through the end of
the week that will bring temperatures back to near or even
slightly above normal. Not expecting any strong winds during the
period except for the typical Antelope Valley breezes each
afternoon. Overall very seasonable weather next week that will
likely carry into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1813Z.

At 1655Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 feet deep with an
inversion top at 6000 feet with a temperature of 15 Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Low confidence
on winds at KWJF KPMD KSBA as nearby mountain wave activity could
surface strong winds at any time through the period. Expected LLWS
issues when winds are lighter at the airport. There is a moderate
chance of BLDU with MVFR vsbys at KWJF and slightly lower chances
at KPMD through the fcst period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. MVFR cigs expected to
linger first hour or two of forecast period. Followed by VFR
conds and a west wind. There is a 30% chance MVFR cigs ~020 do
not return after 08Z Sun. There is a 60% chance of east wind
component exceeding 6 kt from 10Z to 16Z (+/- 1 hour).

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance MVFR
cigs return 10-16Z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...21/741 AM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged and strong Gale Force northwest
winds beyond 20 miles from shore through Saturday night, strongest
of the whole event on Saturday. While Gale gusts have not
materialized so far for the nearshore Central Coast waters and
western Santa Barbara Channel, the Saturday peak is more
pronounced with the highest risk of the week. Some projections
even push the winds very close to the Ventura Coast (25% chance).
As such, will hoist one more Gale Warnings for those areas. All
waters will see building and hazardously steep short period seas.
While winds will likely not reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) off
Los Angeles and Orange Counties, a SCA is in effect for what
should the the steepest seas on Saturday. Small craft should stay
in safe harbor, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first
half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.
High-end SCA winds are still likely for the waters beyond 20
miles for shore on Monday, but winds will lower to more seasonal
speeds by Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
      zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 350-356-382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon
      to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RK/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox