Carnelian Bay, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

804
FXUS65 KREV 051917
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1217 PM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather with unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail
  early this week with enhanced afternoon breezes Monday and
  Tuesday.

* Pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions by midweek with
  valley rain and high elevation snow.

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday and
  Friday, though confidence remains low on the extent of the
  impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly dry and mild through at least Tuesday of this week with
afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal. This translates to the
mid 70s for W NV and the mid 60s for Sierra communities. Afternoon
breezes will pick up Monday and again Tuesday afternoon due to a
brief shortwave cutting across southern Nevada.

A pattern change arrives Wednesday as a low pressure system
approaches the California coast. This brings cooler and wetter
conditions, with chances of precipitation by mid-afternoon
Wednesday. Snow levels are high, over 9000`, so the main precip
type will be rain. However, said precip will have to override the
dry layer we have at the surface; precip Wednesday will likely be
virga.

The most interesting piece to note in the forecast for this week
is the chance for thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. Chances
Thursday are a bit more isolated, but increase in areal coverage
Friday to be of the "scattered" variety. Model soundings for Reno
show roughly 430 J/kg of CAPE and 0.5" PWATs Friday. Both of
these values are approaching the max values based on sounding
climatology. The low bringing these storm chances will remain
cut off from the upper level flow, which will allow for track
meanderings. Check back here to see how confidence changes;
confidence on the extent of the impacts by the end of the week
remains low for now.

-Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected for all terminals. Winds will be light and
variable today, with afternoon breezes up to 15-20 kts kicking in
Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

-Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$