Carnelian Bay, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

162
FXUS65 KREV 221944
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1244 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Expect cooler than average temperatures with overall dry
  conditions through Tuesday.

* There is a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
  in the eastern Sierra from the Tahoe area southward today
  through Tuesday.

* Temperatures return to seasonal average by mid-week, then back
  above average by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* A weak upper level low pressure will drift over the area through
  early Wednesday. When combined with the heat of the day, there
  is enough instability to support a 10-25% chance for showers and
  thunderstorms in the eastern Sierra each afternoon to early
  evening from today through Tuesday. The main area of concern is
  from the Tahoe area southward into Mono County. These showers
  and storms may also drift into Douglas, southern Lyon, and
  Mineral counties in western NV. The main threat will be locally
  heavy rainfall and strong erratic winds. Otherwise, temperatures
  begin a slow warmup this week but remain below seasonal averages
  through Tuesday. For quick reference, average temperatures for
  late June is near 90 degrees in western NV and upper 70s to near
  80 degrees for the eastern Sierra communities.

* The aforementioned upper low kicks out on Wednesday with a
  return of dry southwest flow. A weak short-wave then quickly
  moves through the area on Thursday, slightly enhancing our
  winds, but with no other impacts. Temperatures return to average
  readings by Wednesday through Friday. Ensembles show that the
  upper ridge strengthens over the west by the weekend, allowing
  for temperatures to increase back above average for next
  weekend. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* Areas of FZFG possible at KTRK from around 10z to 15z Monday
  morning.

* Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions and light afternoon breezes
  prevail today with isolated showers possible in the Sierra this
  afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase Monday and Tuesday
  afternoons with best chances of 10-20% at KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH.
  -McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$