Carnelian Bay, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS65 KREV 232154
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
154 PM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Today will be an ideal day for holiday travel with dry and mild
  conditions.

* A Christmas Eve storm will bring gusty winds, valley rain, and
  heavy mountain snow with impacts to recreation and travel.

* Tranquil weather Christmas day but additional storms likely
  late this week and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today will be the best day to travel before Christmas due to
minor ridging. This is bringing mild temperatures and dry
conditions. However, this will quickly give way to a winter storm
system early tomorrow morning.

Portions of northeast California will start to see rain late
tonight with the areal rain coverage slowly increasing into the
Tahoe basin through the morning. Snow levels will remain above
7000 feet for most of the early morning, meaning only the highest
peaks will see snow (before day break). As the day progresses, the
snow levels start to drop down to 5000 ft.

The heaviest snow showers will be in the late morning/early
afternoon hours (9am through 1pm) with Sierra passes seeing
snowfall rates up to an inch an hour. The highest peaks may see up
to 2-3" per hour of snow. Foothills above 5500 feet, including
Virgina City, could see up to an inch of snow with Nevada valleys
getting rain showers. Models show mixed confidence in instability
with this system as well. If any convection develops, it will be
imbedded. However, there`s a 10-20% chance for the occasional
lightning strike. Yes, thundersnow! But depends on the location.

The majority of the precipitation will push out of the area by
sunset. Some showers will linger on the west side of the Sierra
but could creep up the mountains in the early evening hours. If
it`s convection based, heavy snowfall is possible but confidence
on this remains low.

Wind gusts kick up in the early morning hours ahead of the
precipitation. We could see wind gusts up to 45 mph for much of
the Western Nevada valleys. Wind prone areas may see gusts upwards
of 50 mph as the strongest portion of the system moves through.
Ridge winds may approach gusts up to 90 mph, depending on the
location. Thus, expect impacts to travel and aviation early
tomorrow.

Overnight lows Tuesday night drop below freezing across the area.
Any roads that were already wet will likely refreeze, making any
travel, especially over the Sierra, challenging.

A dry Christmas day will preceed more rounds of Sierra snow and
valley rain. We can expect light snow showers along the Sierra
early Thursday with heavier snow returning late Thursday night,
continuing through Friday. Expect valley rain Friday as well.
Right now, we see some lingering showers Saturday into Sunday.
However, stay tuned as we get closer. -Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions and light winds expected for the rest
of today before a winter storm starts to impact the area late
tonight. Wind gusts overnight into early tomorrow will be upwards
of 45 kts for KRNO/KTRK/KMMH while KTVL/KCXP/KMEV will see gusts
up to 30 kts. Locally stronger gusts possible at Sierra front
terminals. Additionally, we`re expecting plenty of LLWS across
all terminals after 24/06Z. Sierra terminals can expect periods of
IFR/LIFR as the precipitation moves through Tuesday. Meanwhile,
Sierra front terminals will see MVFR conditions.
-Giralte

&&

.AVALANCHE...

A winter storm is expected to bring strong ridgetop wind gusts
and heavy mountain snow Tuesday.

* Snow levels begin above 7000 feet early Tuesday morning before
  falling to near 5000 feet by early afternoon.

* 70-80% chance for snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr above 5500 feet
  during the early afternoon hours. Locations along the crests
  south of Sonora Pass could see a 15-30% chance of snowfall rates
  up to 3"/hr during this time.

* Total snowfall along the Sierra crest will be between 6-12" with
  upwards of a foot along the highest peaks (predominantly in the
  Tahoe basin). There is a 40-70% chance of SWE of an inch or
  greater on Tuesday.

* Strong southwest gusts exceeding 90-100 mph are expected along
  exposed Sierra ridges Tuesday morning.

-Giralte/Salas


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday NVZ002.

     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday NVZ001.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday NVZ003-004.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday CAZ071-073.

 Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday CAZ072.

&&

$$