Carmel, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS66 KMTR 221719
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1019 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Winds will continue to ease and reduce today. Quiet weather on tap
for the upcoming week, with the return of coastal clouds and fog.
Temperatures gradually return to near normal, especially for inland
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Quiet weather on tap, with winds continuing to ease throughout the
day. The upper level low from the Intermountain West continues to
lift to the north-northeast, with a secondary low developing over
Northern CA while an upper level high sits over the eastern Pacific.
This should allow stratus to inch closer coast throughout the day,
potentially hugging our coast by Sunday night. The question becomes
whether or not the first push of stratus makes it inland at all.
Guidance supports it seeping into around Monterey Bay and perhaps
along the San Mateo/San Francisco coast. Will need to keep an eye on
how this trends throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

More or less of the same is on tap for the extended forecast.
Ensemble and cluster analysis favors upper level troughing to quasi
zonal flow. This means fairly quiet weather will continue, with
mainly onshore flow, and coastal stratus and perhaps nighttime fog
at times. Temperatures gradually warm throughout the period,

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Generally VFR conditions continue through the day. Breezy northwest
winds will develop this afternoon through the evening, although
gusts will not be as strong as yesterday`s peaks, with the terminals
seeing gusts at 20 to 25 knots at strongest. Overnight through
Monday morning, IFR stratus returns to the immediate coast and the
Monterey Bay. Low confidence for stratus returning to the SF Bay
Area at this time, as high resolution ensemble model output has
overdone stratus coverage probabilities in the region this morning.
Will monitor upcoming forecasts in case the probability increases.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period, with a low confidence
for stratus at the northern edge of the terminal tonight and Monday
morning. Breezy northwest wings gusting to 25 knots will develop
this afternoon and evening, diminishing overnight before resuming
Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the day with breezy onshore
winds this afternoon and evening. High confidence in IFR stratus
developing at MRY this evening through Monday morning, moderate
confidence for the same at SNS. Stratus mixes out close to the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1018 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Widespread hazardous marine conditions continue for the waters
with strong northwest breezes, gale force gusts, and rough seas.
Conditions improve on Monday, but northwest breezes remain fresh
to strong and seas remain moderate to rough through Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight PDT
     tonight for CAZ006-506-508.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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