Bay Point, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

128
FXUS66 KMTR 311630
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
930 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

 - Dynamic tidal conditions still exist near the shore in the wake
   of the tsunami. These conditions are subsiding. However, continue
   to use caution near harbors and inlets.

 - Seasonably mild weather persists into the weekend. Otherwise
   typical summertime weather.

 - Potential for gusty onshore winds Sunday and Monday along the
   coast and near gaps and passes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Morning satellite is showing an eroding marine layer across the
interior portions of the Bay Area and Central CA regions, which
looks like yesterday. 24 hour temp changes or basically zero. So
what the morale is here, we are living the movie groundhogs day.
Stratus quo. This makes it tough to provide an update beyond what
the overnight shift wrote in the discussion below, therefore, see
discussion below. Have a wonderful day!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025
(Today and tonight)

Marine layer deepening to about 2,000 feet per the Fort Ord
profiler this morning, leading to patchy drizzle along coastal
areas. Really not much to elaborate on in the short term as weak
upper level troughing persists and keeps this quiet, mild pattern
going. Refer to the BEACHES section below for information
about ongoing near-shore threats as minor tidal oscillations
continue after Wednesday morning`s tsunami.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025
(Friday through Wednesday)

Mild and quiet weather continues through the first half of the
weekend. By Sunday, a more potent trough out of the Gulf of Alaska
is progged to move through the northern half of the state
resulting in increased moisture and gusty onshore winds. A few
discussions ago I had mentioned the potential for offshore winds
by the middle of next week. Updated guidance has advertised a more
favorable track for the upper low which has shifted the focus to
gusty ONshore winds earlier in the period (Sunday and Monday).
Most favored areas will be coastal and high elevation areas, as
well as NW/SE oriented gaps and passes. There still does exist a
low chance of breezy northerly winds across the North Bay as the
low translates inland early Tuesday. However, this appears to be a
fairly short period as winds revert back to a more onshore
component by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-MVFR at the terminals with a marine
layer of about 2,200 feet. With the exception of HAF, moderate to
high confidence on widespread VFR being achieved by this
afternoon. Heights will ever so slightly rise towards the end of
the TAF period which will assist in the compression of the marine
layer. Thus, IFR ceilings are expected tonight, but for less
terminals as the marine layer will not be deep enough to penetrate
as far inland.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow. High
confidence (85%) that the terminal will improve to VFR by this
afternoon. Westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period. High
confidence in a sub-VFR ceiling returning to the terminal tonight,
likely similar to what is underway right now on the cusp of IFR/MVFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low probability (20%) that low stratus clouds
will linger between OAK and SFO through the afternoon and evening.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence on the
terminals (higher confidence in SNS than MRY) achieving VFR this
afternoon with low stratus sticking close to the coast. Westerly
winds will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail with gale force
gusts developing in the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and
Point Sur by Sunday afternoon. Moderate to rough seas will
prevail through Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 458 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The Beach Hazards Statement has been allowed to expire due to water
level fluctuations of less than 1 foot for several hours now. As
always, please continue to exercise caution on, in, or near the
ocean today as water levels continue to fluctuate.

Sarment

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Friday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BFG
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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