Little Rock, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

395
FXUS64 KLZK 110807
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
307 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

-Dry weather will prevail through Wednesday morning.

-Rain chances return Wednesday afternoon through the weekend with
 scattered showers and thunderstorms.

-A few strong storms are possible on Thursday into Friday with
 gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

-Temperatures will be a couple of degrees above normal through
 today, then temperatures hovering around normal values through
 Saturday before warming at or above normal into early next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Satellite early this morning shows some high level clouds
streaming in from the southwest into the state. Winds later today
will become S to SE allowing for moisture to gradually increase
throughout the day. An upper level closed low is still projected
to form later today over north central Texas with widespread
precipitation expected underneath and ahead of this feature as it
moves along the Red River toward Arkansas later today. By late
tonight, the closed compact low will be close enough to the state
to introduce chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of western, southwestern, and southern Arkansas.

As the closed compact upper low moves into eastern Oklahoma, it
will lift a warm front boundary northward with several rounds
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms thunderstorms
on Thursday. The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be across portions of southwestern and western Arkansas on
Thursday and Thursday night. Due to upper lack of upper level
dynamics, severe weather is not anticipated, but a few strong
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

By Thursday night, upper closed low begins to move north into SE
KS and SW MO with additional rounds of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the state with the highest chances
across portions of the western half of the state. The
deterministic models then begin to deviate some on solutions in
regards to the closed upper low on Friday. The GFS solution shows
the closed compact low dissipating as it moves into southwestern
MO and becoming an open wave, while the ECMWF solution keeps the
closed low moving into central Missouri on Friday. The low/trough
will begin moving toward the Ohio river valley by Saturday as the
upper ridge over the southeastern US begins to flatten. Additional
chances for scattered showers and isolated showers are in the
forecast on both Saturday and Sunday. At the same time, upper
ridging begins to build and strengthen over the desert southwest
on Saturday into Sunday.

For early next week, additional disturbances within the W/SW flow
will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the state.

Temperatures today will be a couple of degrees above normal, then
trend close to normal values through the Saturday before again
warming a couple degrees above normal by early next week. Heat
indices may approach criteria toward the middle part of next week
particularly across portions of southeast and southern Arkansas.




.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conds are expected to prevail through much of the new TAF PD. Mid/high
clouds are anticipated to increase heading through Wed. Have kept
PROB30 groups for -TSRA at KHOT and KADF for a potential line of
convection moving towards Cntrl AR from the ARKLATEX region. Winds
will be light and variable through the overnight PD, w/ Srly
winds resuming Wed aftn.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  69  86  69 /   0  10  50  60
Camden AR         89  68  86  69 /  20  40  80  50
Harrison AR       86  66  80  67 /  10  20  60  60
Hot Springs AR    90  68  85  68 /  20  40  80  60
Little Rock   AR  90  71  87  70 /  10  20  70  60
Monticello AR     90  71  88  72 /  10  20  80  40
Mount Ida AR      88  67  83  68 /  20  50  90  70
Mountain Home AR  87  67  83  67 /   0  20  50  60
Newport AR        90  69  88  70 /   0  10  40  50
Pine Bluff AR     90  70  88  71 /  10  20  70  50
Russellville AR   90  69  84  69 /  10  30  80  60
Searcy AR         90  69  87  69 /   0  10  50  50
Stuttgart AR      89  72  88  72 /   0  20  60  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM....76
AVIATION...72