Jacksonville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXUS64 KLZK 120849
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
349 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Pattern once again turns unsettled with showers and
  thunderstorms through the weekend.

- Several inches of rain will be possible with the heaviest of the
  rain likely falling Thursday afternoon and Friday night.

- Stronger storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening
  with strong gusty winds the primary concern.

- Hot and humid conditions return to the Arkansas around the
  middle to latter part of next week. Heat indices will exceed 100
  degrees around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

An unsettled weather pattern will continue through at least the
weekend across Arkansas. Satellite this morning shows an upper low
currently over the Texas Hill Country. Guidance continues to show
the low will move quite slowly through Saturday as it becomes cut
off from the overall prevailing flow. The upper low will move into
eastern Oklahoma later today. Ahead of the low/trough, S/SE winds
continue to bring in ample deep moisture into the state. Latest hi-
res CAMs this morning shows an arc of showers and thunderstorms
entering southwestern Arkansas around mid morning, then moving
northeast toward central Arkansas by this afternoon. Ahead of the
showers and thunderstorms, CAPE values this afternoon over portions
of southeast,south, and far eastern Arkansas will be in the 1500-
2000J/kg range with bulk shear of 20-30 kts, thus, SPC has placed
most of Arkansas in a marginal risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms for today. The primary hazard with any strong to
severe thunderstorm will be a strong or damaging wind gust this
afternoon and evening.


Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms statewide are
expected with some breaks as the low slowly moves into northeastern
Oklahoma by later tonight, then the low/trough will traverse the
Missouri/Arkansas line and slowly move eastward on Friday. As the
low traverses the Arkansas/Missouri state line this weekend, it is
expected to dissipate and becoming an open wave, but there are some
difference between deterministic guidance on when that will occur
this weekend. The open wave will finally push east of the area
sometime Sunday into Monday with continued precipitation chances
across Arkansas.

In regards to precipitation totals this weekend, guidance shows the
most likely period for heavy rainfall will be this afternoon/evening
and again on Friday afternoon evening. Rainfall amounts of 2-3"
common place over much of central Arkansas with slightly lower
amounts over northern one to two rows of counties seeing 1 to 1.5"
of rainfall. The highest precipitation amounts with 4-6" over
portions of southwestern Arkansas with locally higher amounts
through Saturday evening. A Flood Watch has been issued over
portions of southwest and western Arkansas through Saturday evening
as these areas will likely see the highest amounts this weekend.


As we head into early next week, multiple shortwaves moving across
the area from the west/northwest will keep precipitation chances in
the forecast through Tuesday before ridging builds into the area
toward the middle and latter part of next week.

Temperatures through Friday will be a few degrees below normal
through the weekend, then temperature will upward to a few degrees
above normal by the middle and latter part of next week. Heat
indices around the middle part of next week may approach or meet
Heat Advisory criteria with temperatures in the lower 90s with
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR condns wl prevail thru much of the overnight PD Wed night, w/
CIGs deteriorating to MVFR levels fm W to E towards 12Z Thurs
mrng. A few rounds of convective activity are expected on Thurs,
w/ some VCTY precip near Nrn terminals early Thurs mrng. Another
line of showers/storms is expected to develop over S/Wrn AR and
move Nwrd quickly Thurs aftn, mainly impacting Cntrl terminals, w/
a trailing (possibly more organized) line of storms moving Nwrd
fm Srn AR later Thurs evng near 00Z, though confidence on this
feature remains lower for now. CIGs should continue to deteriorate
to IFR levels thru the day, w/ accompanying reduced VISBYs at
most terminals, and prevailing light/Srly winds, though passing
precip activity may produce variable/gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  69  82  68 /  80  90  90  60
Camden AR         80  69  85  69 /  90  80  80  50
Harrison AR       76  67  77  66 /  80  80  80  40
Hot Springs AR    78  68  83  68 /  90  80  70  50
Little Rock   AR  80  70  83  70 /  80  80  80  60
Monticello AR     85  70  86  72 /  90  70  80  50
Mount Ida AR      78  68  82  68 /  90  80  70  50
Mountain Home AR  78  67  78  67 /  70  80  90  50
Newport AR        82  70  83  70 /  60  80  90  60
Pine Bluff AR     83  70  85  69 /  80  80  80  60
Russellville AR   78  68  82  68 /  80  80  80  50
Searcy AR         81  68  83  68 /  80  80  80  60
Stuttgart AR      83  71  84  70 /  70  80  80  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ARZ052>054-062-066-067-
137-140-141-237-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...72