Jacksonville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS64 KLZK 072341
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

-Additional chances for scattered strong to severe storms will
persist through at least Monday evening over portions of the state.

-Isolated excessive rainfall amounts of two to three inches (high-
end amounts near three to four inches) will be possible Sunday
evening and through the overnight period.

-Hazardous heat conditions are expected through the coming work
week, with area heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Recent radar imgry showed early Sat evng convection waning over much
of the FA w/ MRMS QPE suggesting areas of 2 to 4 or more inches of
rainfall fell across areas of Wrn AR. Thru the day Sun, a similar
fcst is expected for at least the Nrn half of the state. Modest low-
lvl Srly flow wl drive Gulf moisture poleward, w/ Td`s in the low to
mid 70s extending over much of the region by Sun aftn. Aloft, a
shortwave trof is progged to lift NEwrd acrs the Ozark Plateau thru
the aftn, w/ subtle H500 height falls driving modest instability,
characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Sufficient
buoyancy overspread by effective bulk shear of 30 knots wl support
another round of isolated severe weather chances for the Nrn half of
the state. All severe hazards wl be possible Sun aftn, though
damaging winds and possibly a few brief tornadoes wl be the main
concerns.

In addition to any severe weather, area-wide PWAT values near or
greater than two inches wl yield very efficient rainfall rates of
two to three inches per hour w/ any convective activity. In addition
to anomalous column moisture, a SWrly H850 LLJ of 20 to 30 kts is
progged acrs Wrn AR overnight Sun night, and wl aid in driving
excessive rainfall and flash flooding potential. 00Z HREF/REFS
solns suggest additional heavy rainfall swaths greater than two
inches thru Mon mrng wl be possible acrs portions of the Boston
Mountains to Nrn AR, e.g., probabilistic QPF > 2" around 50 to
70%. Higher end scenarios, e.g., 90th percentile, suggest local
amounts near three to four or more inches of rainfall could be
possible, particularly where the greatest training occurs.

By Mon, the aforementioned upper shortwave wl be moving acrs the
Ohio River Valley, w/ modest NWrly flow positioned acrs the Mid-
South and Ozark Plateau. Modest instability characterized by MLCAPE
of 1500 J/kg wl be overlaid by ample NWrly shear of 30 knots. The
projected pattern favors some MCS potential acrs at least portions
of NErn AR, and deterministic mass field solns are indicative of
progressive cold pools moving thru the FA Mon aftn to evng. For now,
the severe threat remains low impact, w/ strong to briefly damaging
winds the main possible hazards on Mon.

Tues and thru the remainder of the fcst PD, H500 flow wl briefly
transition to shortwave ridging acrs the Srn Cntrl US, bcmg more
zonal by mid to late week. Precip chances wl diminish acrs the FA,
w/ daily high temps trending towards the low to mid 90s at most
locations. Antecedent humidity levels wl contribute to the first
week of hazardous heat of the summer acrs the FA, w/ local heat
index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees, and WBG temps reaching the
mid to upper 80s. Of more concern wl be the lack of overnight
relief, as current low temp fcst values suggest widespread mid to
upper 70s fm Tues to Thurs nights.

Towards the end of the work week, there is some signal for returning
rain chances based on the progression of a longwave trof set to move
thru the Cntrl to High Plains, though discrepancies still exist
amongst the latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF solns. Nevertheless, the presence
of at least strong Wrly flow and subtle troughing remains present
amongst most global ensemble solns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

SHRA/TSRA moving east/northeast across the state will continue to
weaken then dissipate after sunset. Mainly VFR ceilings seen
across most of the state with the exception of areas within or
near showers and thunderstorms, which will see brief drops to
MVFR/IFR ceilings along with gusty thunderstorm winds. Hi-res
guidance this evening shows another possible round of SHRA/TSRA
early Monday morning mainly impacting northern terminals. A look
at HREF and BUFKIT soundings show MVFR ceilings overspreading the
state west to east Monday morning around sunrise, then lifting to
VFR around mid day. Light southerly flow expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  88  74  92 /  70  20  10   0
Camden AR         73  92  74  94 /  20  10   0   0
Harrison AR       70  86  73  88 /  60  40   0   0
Hot Springs AR    73  89  75  92 /  50  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  73  90  75  92 /  50  10  10   0
Monticello AR     75  91  75  93 /  20  30   0   0
Mount Ida AR      73  88  74  90 /  30  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  69  85  72  89 /  80  40  10   0
Newport AR        73  90  75  92 /  60  20  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     74  90  75  92 /  30  20   0   0
Russellville AR   73  89  75  92 /  60  10   0   0
Searcy AR         72  90  74  93 /  70  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      75  90  76  92 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ121-130-137-140-221-230-
237-240-340.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...76