Jacksonville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

011
FXUS64 KLZK 022329
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Several high impact weather events, perhaps historic, will
  affect the forecast area through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

18z KLZK upper air observation indicates a `loaded gun` type
sounding. MUCape of > 4000kg is indicated, with a 0-3km (supercell
discriminator) of > 275 m2/s2.

After convective inhibition erodes this afternoon, all parameters
derived from this sounding support supercell development, with
support for long track, significant or greater tornadoes. Several
brief supercells already have been noted this afternoon.  Near
term forecasts will occupied on this severe weather event, which
will last throughout the evening hours, as a cold front moves
east into the forecast area.

This cold frontal boundary that will focus this severe weather event
will stall across the forecast area on Thursday. This feature
will become nearly stationary, as it becomes parallel to the
southwesterly upper level flow. The front will likely wobble due
to convective outflow(s), but much of the area will receive
excessive rainfall through Saturday, as several waves in the
southwest flow interacts with the boundary. The rainfall will
produce not only a flash flooding threat, but a river flooding
threat as well.

Rainfall will finally come to an end late Saturday and early Sunday.

Near to below normal temperatures will prevail Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025


Forecasts will reflect best expected scenario regarding
convective development through the valid TAF period. MVFR
conditions will prevail during the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  68  56  81 /  80  90  90 100
Camden AR         65  80  67  85 /  90  90  80  80
Harrison AR       51  62  52  72 /  20  80  60 100
Hot Springs AR    59  70  61  80 /  90 100  90 100
Little Rock   AR  61  74  62  84 /  90 100  90  90
Monticello AR     69  83  71  86 /  80  80  60  70
Mount Ida AR      58  70  60  79 /  80 100  90 100
Mountain Home AR  52  64  53  74 /  30  90  70 100
Newport AR        60  68  59  81 /  90 100  90  90
Pine Bluff AR     64  78  66  85 /  90  90  80  80
Russellville AR   57  70  58  80 /  70  90  80 100
Searcy AR         59  73  58  84 /  90  90  90  90
Stuttgart AR      64  75  66  84 / 100  90  90  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ008-016-017-025-
033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55