Hot Springs, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

963
FXUS64 KLZK 231715 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

-Well above normal temperatures into this weekend, with record
 highs possible through the Christmas holiday and beyond

-Cooler temperatures back towards near and even below normal
 levels and maybe some rain chances late this weekend and into
 next week

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A warm front spreading northwards across the region has caused
dewpoints to soar into the 60s, thus temperatures continue to warm
through the overnight hours. Low level stratus and patchy dense
fog are accompanying this surge of moisture, as this stratus deck
should linger across the majority of the region through the
daytime hours. Despite the lingering clouds, afternoon
temperatures should still reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s,
which is about 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A strong and highly anomalous ridge/high pressure will build
across the central U.S., resulting in continued warming starting
Christmas Eve and extending into the weekend. According to the WPC
ECMWF SAT, this upper level ridging developing shows an expansive
area of climatological maxes for geopotential heights at standard
levels of the atmosphere for this time of year, which should then
not surprise anyone that record temperatures may be set anywhere
from Wednesday (Christmas Eve) through Saturday.

A shift in weather pattern has increased temperatures several
degrees during this period, and extending into Saturday due to the
main Pacific trough energy lingering across the western half of
CONUS and eventually cutting off the main flow late this weekend.
The main trough associated with the polar jet will progress
across the northern Plains over the weekend, ushering colder air
into the region starting Sunday, aided by a cold front passage
over the region. With persistent high pressure over the Gulf, return
moisture ahead of the front advecting in from the southwesterly
direction might be enough to spark some showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms mainly on Sunday. Ensemble guidance seems to be in
much better agreement on this scenario compared to previous runs,
with timing of this pattern change the main uncertainty that
increases the interquartile NBM temperature range (almost 20
degrees) starting Sunday and extending into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A warm front spreading northwards across the region has caused
dewpoints to soar into the 60s, thus temperatures continue to warm
through the overnight hours. Low level stratus and patchy dense
fog are accompanying this surge of moisture, as this stratus deck
should linger across the majority of the region through the
daytime hours. Despite the lingering clouds, afternoon
temperatures should still reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s,
which is about 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A strong and highly anomalous ridge/high pressure will build
across the central U.S., resulting in continued warming starting
Christmas Eve and extending into the weekend. According to the WPC
ECMWF SAT, this upper level ridging developing shows an expansive
area of climatological maxes for geopotential heights at standard
levels of the atmosphere for this time of year, which should then
not surprise anyone that record temperatures may be set anywhere
from Wednesday (Christmas Eve) through Saturday.

A shift in weather pattern has increased temperatures several
degrees during this period, and extending into Saturday due to the
main Pacific trough energy lingering across the western half of
CONUS and eventually cutting off the main flow late this weekend.
The main trough associated with the polar jet will progress
across the northern Plains over the weekend, ushering colder air
into the region starting Sunday, aided by a cold front passage
over the region. With persistent high pressure over the Gulf, return
moisture ahead of the front advecting in from the southwesterly
direction might be enough to spark some showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms mainly on Sunday. Ensemble guidance seems to be in
much better agreement on this scenario compared to previous runs,
with timing of this pattern change the main uncertainty that
increases the interquartile NBM temperature range (almost 20
degrees) starting Sunday and extending into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs will persist across the state through the
afternoon hours along with S/SW winds around 10 kts with gusts
above 17 kts at times. After 24/00z will see low clouds build in
over the state once again and lead to widespread MVFR/IFR cigs
during the overnight hours through Wednesday morning. Could see
some localized FG development overnight as well. Similar to today,
could see some improvement to VFR across a few terminals between
24/15z to 24/18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  76  59  75 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         57  75  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       58  75  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    59  73  59  74 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  60  75  59  75 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     60  76  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      60  75  60  75 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  57  76  58  76 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        61  74  60  74 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     60  75  58  76 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   60  77  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         58  75  57  75 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      61  75  59  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...67