Hot Springs, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXUS64 KLZK 030515
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Several high impact weather events, perhaps historic, will
  affect the forecast area through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

18z KLZK upper air observation indicates a `loaded gun` type
sounding. MUCape of > 4000kg is indicated, with a 0-3km (supercell
discriminator) of > 275 m2/s2.

After convective inhibition erodes this afternoon, all parameters
derived from this sounding support supercell development, with
support for long track, significant or greater tornadoes. Several
brief supercells already have been noted this afternoon.  Near
term forecasts will occupied on this severe weather event, which
will last throughout the evening hours, as a cold front moves
east into the forecast area.

This cold frontal boundary that will focus this severe weather event
will stall across the forecast area on Thursday. This feature
will become nearly stationary, as it becomes parallel to the
southwesterly upper level flow. The front will likely wobble due
to convective outflow(s), but much of the area will receive
excessive rainfall through Saturday, as several waves in the
southwest flow interacts with the boundary. The rainfall will
produce not only a flash flooding threat, but a river flooding
threat as well.

Rainfall will finally come to an end late Saturday and early Sunday.

Near to below normal temperatures will prevail Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Expect light and variable surface winds to begin the forecast period
across all sites. CIGS and VSBY will degrade to as low as by late
Thursday morning as the cloud deck will lower to MVFR and eventually
IFR conditions as a boundary is expected to stall across Arkansas.
Additionally, expect showers and thunderstorms over the majority of
the forecast period across all sites. Surface winds will gust in
excess of 24 knots across all terminals by late Thursday morning
before losing their gusting condition late Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  56  81  62 /  90  90 100  90
Camden AR         80  67  85  68 /  90  80  80  70
Harrison AR       62  52  72  53 /  80  60 100 100
Hot Springs AR    70  61  80  64 / 100  90 100  90
Little Rock   AR  74  62  84  67 / 100  90  90  90
Monticello AR     83  71  86  71 /  80  60  70  50
Mount Ida AR      70  60  79  62 / 100  90 100  90
Mountain Home AR  64  53  74  56 /  90  70 100 100
Newport AR        68  59  81  66 / 100  90  90  80
Pine Bluff AR     78  66  85  70 /  90  80  80  70
Russellville AR   70  58  80  61 /  90  80 100 100
Searcy AR         73  58  84  65 /  90  90  90  80
Stuttgart AR      75  66  84  71 /  90  90  80  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...74