Hot Springs Village, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

480
FXUS64 KLZK 232346
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
546 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

-Well above normal temperatures into this weekend, with record
 highs possible through the Christmas holiday and beyond

-Cooler temperatures back towards near and even below normal
 levels and maybe some rain chances late this weekend and into
 next week

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A warm front spreading northwards across the region has caused
dewpoints to soar into the 60s, thus temperatures continue to warm
through the overnight hours. Low level stratus and patchy dense
fog are accompanying this surge of moisture, as this stratus deck
should linger across the majority of the region through the
daytime hours. Despite the lingering clouds, afternoon
temperatures should still reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s,
which is about 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A strong and highly anomalous ridge/high pressure will build
across the central U.S., resulting in continued warming starting
Christmas Eve and extending into the weekend. According to the WPC
ECMWF SAT, this upper level ridging developing shows an expansive
area of climatological maxes for geopotential heights at standard
levels of the atmosphere for this time of year, which should then
not surprise anyone that record temperatures may be set anywhere
from Wednesday (Christmas Eve) through Saturday.

A shift in weather pattern has increased temperatures several
degrees during this period, and extending into Saturday due to the
main Pacific trough energy lingering across the western half of
CONUS and eventually cutting off the main flow late this weekend.
The main trough associated with the polar jet will progress
across the northern Plains over the weekend, ushering colder air
into the region starting Sunday, aided by a cold front passage
over the region. With persistent high pressure over the Gulf, return
moisture ahead of the front advecting in from the southwesterly
direction might be enough to spark some showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms mainly on Sunday. Ensemble guidance seems to be in
much better agreement on this scenario compared to previous runs,
with timing of this pattern change the main uncertainty that
increases the interquartile NBM temperature range (almost 20
degrees) starting Sunday and extending into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A warm front spreading northwards across the region has caused
dewpoints to soar into the 60s, thus temperatures continue to warm
through the overnight hours. Low level stratus and patchy dense
fog are accompanying this surge of moisture, as this stratus deck
should linger across the majority of the region through the
daytime hours. Despite the lingering clouds, afternoon
temperatures should still reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s,
which is about 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A strong and highly anomalous ridge/high pressure will build
across the central U.S., resulting in continued warming starting
Christmas Eve and extending into the weekend. According to the WPC
ECMWF SAT, this upper level ridging developing shows an expansive
area of climatological maxes for geopotential heights at standard
levels of the atmosphere for this time of year, which should then
not surprise anyone that record temperatures may be set anywhere
from Wednesday (Christmas Eve) through Saturday.

A shift in weather pattern has increased temperatures several
degrees during this period, and extending into Saturday due to the
main Pacific trough energy lingering across the western half of
CONUS and eventually cutting off the main flow late this weekend.
The main trough associated with the polar jet will progress
across the northern Plains over the weekend, ushering colder air
into the region starting Sunday, aided by a cold front passage
over the region. With persistent high pressure over the Gulf, return
moisture ahead of the front advecting in from the southwesterly
direction might be enough to spark some showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms mainly on Sunday. Ensemble guidance seems to be in
much better agreement on this scenario compared to previous runs,
with timing of this pattern change the main uncertainty that
increases the interquartile NBM temperature range (almost 20
degrees) starting Sunday and extending into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conds should gradually become MVFR/IFR by early morning as low
stratus redevelops overnight across much of AR. Conds should
improve around 15z once CIGs begin dissipate and or increase in
height. Winds on Wed should be SWrly between 10-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  77  60  76 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         59  76  59  76 /   0   0  10   0
Harrison AR       59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    61  76  60  75 /  10   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  61  77  60  76 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     61  77  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      61  77  61  77 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  59  76  59  77 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        63  76  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     61  76  60  76 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   61  79  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         59  77  58  76 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  76  60  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...70