Hot Springs Village, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

175
FXUS64 KLZK 030756
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The pattern of unsettled weather across the CWA and state of
Arkansas will continue through the weekend. In the upper lvls, a
digging trof with a closed low that progresses through the base of
the trof will eject from Western region of the CONUS northeastward
into the Central Plains region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a
stationary front will remain stalled across Arkansas from today
through late Saturday before a second strong cold front moves into
Arkansas from the northwest and ushers the stalled boundary to the
east of the state.

During this three day period, the CWA and state of Arkansas will
experience a two-fold threat: one will be a convective severe
weather threat and a second threat will be a hydrological threat.

The convective threat will consist of multiple days (Today through
Saturday) of an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of level 5) for severe
weather with a parameter space that will be supportive of all
hazards including: large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes.

The second, but equally concerning threat (and a threat which will
be present directly or indirectly over the next several days), will
be the hydrologic threat over this duration. The situation of a
stalled boundary with a pronounced region of moisture being
continuously advected into the the CWA and state of Arkansas via
southerly flow at 925 mb will amount to unusually high PW values for
this time of the year between 1.6 and 1.9+ inches.

Numerous rounds of rain and thunderstorm activity will be expected
over the next three days which will be efficient rainfall producers
and add upwards of an additional 3 to 9+ inches of rainfall across
Arkansas.

WPC has outlined a large region of a Moderate to High Risk for
excessive rainfall over the three-day period of today, Friday, and
Saturday across large portions of Arkansas. It is a must that you
pay attention to rapidly changing river levels along with flash
flooding in efficient rain and thunderstorm activity over this
period. If you encounter high water, it is a must to find an
alternate route and NOT drive through high water. High water can be
deceptive as it can easily sweep away people and vehicles along with
hiding the hidden dangers of the roadway or bridge surface being
compromised or washed away underneath the high water.

A large portion of the state on Wednesday experienced rainfall
totals of 1 to 2+ inches of rainfall and this additional rainfall in
the forecast will only add to flash flooding concerns as well as a
forecast uptick in river flooding as rivers across the state are
already beginning to rise quickly and many will likely exceed flood
stage easily over the coming days.

Into Monday through Wednesday, a dramatic upper lvl pattern change
will take place which will result in a split-flow pattern that will
lead to northwesterly flow over Arkansas as an upper lvl ridge
amplifies across the Western region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a
region of sfc high pressure moves into the region along with a dry
cold front later into mid next week. Expect a relatively dry period
early next week across Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Expect light and variable surface winds to begin the forecast period
across all sites. CIGS and VSBY will degrade to as low as by late
Thursday morning as the cloud deck will lower to MVFR and eventually
IFR conditions as a boundary is expected to stall across Arkansas.
Additionally, expect showers and thunderstorms over the majority of
the forecast period across all sites. Surface winds will gust in
excess of 24 knots across all terminals by late Thursday morning
before losing their gusting condition late Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  56  81  62 /  90  90 100  90
Camden AR         80  67  85  68 /  90  80  80  70
Harrison AR       62  52  72  53 /  80  60 100 100
Hot Springs AR    70  61  80  64 / 100  90 100  90
Little Rock   AR  74  62  84  67 / 100  90  90  90
Monticello AR     83  71  86  71 /  80  60  70  50
Mount Ida AR      70  60  79  62 / 100  90 100  90
Mountain Home AR  64  53  74  56 /  90  70 100 100
Newport AR        68  59  81  66 / 100  90  90  80
Pine Bluff AR     78  66  85  70 /  90  80  80  70
Russellville AR   70  58  80  61 /  90  80 100 100
Searcy AR         73  58  84  65 /  90  90  90  80
Stuttgart AR      75  66  84  71 /  90  90  80  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74