Hot Springs Village, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

887
FXUS64 KLZK 241206
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
606 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Scattered to numerous showers were ongoing over portions of W/NW/N
AR this morning. The entire complex will slowly translate to the
E through the predawn hours while individual showers move from SW
to NE. Temperatures across the state ranged from the mid 40s (N
AR) to mid 50s (S AR).

Synoptically, a shortwave trough, currently positioned over the
Srn Plains, will amplify and deepen as it moves towards the
ArkLaTex`s tonight. Large scale forcing for ascent downstream of
the trough axis will sustain bouts of precipitation over the next
couple of days across the region. At the surface, an open area of
low pressure will move towards AR today before decaying
overnight. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible today,
tonight, and on Christmas across the SW/W/S portions of AR where
MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/Kg should reside. High temperatures today
should be in the upper 40s N, mid 50s Cntrl, to mid 60s over Srn
AR. Overnight, Lkly/Def PoPs are in the forecast across the entire
CWA with lows only falling into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees.

On Christmas Day, the upper shortwave trough will move across AR
promoting continued scattered showers through much of the day. Could
be some breaks during the late afternoon and evening hours though.
Temperatures should slowly warm into the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Given the expected forecasted high and low temperatures, only
liquid precipitation will fall this Christmas. Lows Christmas
night should be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Rainfall amounts
through the period may range from 1.25"-2.50" over NW third of AR,
0.50"-1.50" along I30/I57 corridors of Cntrl third of AR, to
0.25"-0.75" over SE third of AR. Active weather will continue into
the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

An active pattern will persist through much of the long term period
as several upper level shortwaves should be passing over some
portion of the region late this week into early next week. The first
such shortwave will approach AR from the W/SW on Thu...lifting NE
over the state Thu night...with convection becoming likely Thu
afternoon and especially Thu evening/night. Chances for precip
lessen briefly on Fri morning...but another shortwave will approach
in rapid succession behind this earlier shortwave. Chances for
convection become likely once again by Fri night into early Sat
before the shortwave lifts NE of AR. There will be larger break in
the precip chances after this 2nd shortwave...with mainly dry
conditions expected Sat night through early Mon. However...yet
another shortwave will approach AR from the W/NW on Mon...with POPs
increasing once again.

Chances for seeing strong to SVR Wx remain uncertain through the
entire period. However...the Thu/Thu night shortwave will be
something to watch given the potential timing and placement of the
upper shortwave and SFC features. While uncertainty exists in these
details...and resulting placement of instability and SHR...there are
some indications the SFC low may move far enough north to put
portions of AR in the warm sector of the system as the upper
shortwave lifts NE over ERN OK. The may happen around the late
afternoon/early evening time frame...which may aide in some
increasing instability. If this scenario were to develop...the
threat for seeing strong/SVR Wx would increase. However...other
guidance shifts the upper shortwave and SFC low further south and
at a later time...which would tend to limit overall SVR WX
potential. Placement and timing of these features will matter on
the eventual SVR Wx threat Thu afternoon/night.

Beyond Fri morning...the threat for seeing any SVR Wx potential
become less a concern...given the timing and placement of features
as they traverse the area. Even so...will still need to see how
details evolve over time for the eventual SVR Wx threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

SHRA continue to develop this morning and push into AR from OK.
Where SHRA/RA activity was ongoing, conds were already MVFR/IFR
categories, and where it was dry VFR conds prevailed. Through
today, SHRA activity will push S and E with more sites
experiencing IFR conds. Winds will be light, E/SE at less than 10
kts. FG is anticipated to develop over Wrn and Nrn sites once
SHRA`s wind down this evening/overnight. FG development is
dependent on a break in activity across the aforementioned areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     50  45  53  46 /  80  80  70  40
Camden AR         64  51  60  52 /  60  80  60  30
Harrison AR       48  44  53  46 / 100  60  40  10
Hot Springs AR    55  49  57  51 /  90  90  60  40
Little Rock   AR  55  49  56  51 /  80  80  70  50
Monticello AR     65  49  61  53 /  20  50  60  30
Mount Ida AR      56  49  59  50 / 100  90  60  30
Mountain Home AR  48  44  51  46 / 100  80  60  20
Newport AR        53  46  54  48 /  60  70  70  30
Pine Bluff AR     61  49  58  51 /  50  80  60  40
Russellville AR   52  46  56  49 / 100  90  60  20
Searcy AR         53  46  56  48 /  70  80  60  40
Stuttgart AR      58  49  57  52 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...70