Bella Vista, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

411
FXUS64 KTSA 111043
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
543 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

  - Slow moving upper low increases rain chances Wednesday with
    widespread showers and scattered storms Thursday into Friday.
    Locally heavy rainfall possible. Flooding may become a
    concern.

  - Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is
    forecast to decrease. Temperatures near mid June normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Area of low pressure was currently centered over west Texas early
this morning with showers and storms ongoing along the eastern
periphery of the low. Ahead/east of this wave, southerly low
level flow was aiding in low level moisture advection back
northward with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5"
approaching the Red River. This moisture plume is expected to move
into southeast Oklahoma this morning and lift across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the afternoon hours as the
low pressure system slowly tracks northeast into central Texas.

With the approaching wave, shower and thunderstorm chances also
lift north of the Red River this morning and spread across much of
the CWA through the afternoon. The greater potential for
convection resides across southeast Oklahoma within the area of
deeper moisture and greater instability. A slight chance of
convection also develops across northwest Arkansas this afternoon
on the leading edge of the northward advancing moisture plume as
it gets lifted by the terrain. Weak flow aloft and marginal shear
should limit overall severe potentials today. However, with the
abundant moisture over the region, a locally heavy rain threat
could develop with the convection. Scattered rain showers continue
overnight tonight with the wave moving into north Texas by early
Thursday morning. Weakening instability tonight will still allow
for slight to low end chance, 20-30 percent, thunderstorm
potentials for the CWA.

Cloud cover and precip chances will keep temperatures in check
today with highs in the 80s and lows tonight in the 60s/near 70
deg for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The area of low pressure is progged to move over the CWA Thursday
and Friday, with latest model solutions now indicating the wave
exiting Friday night into Saturday. The current track of the wave
puts the greater moisture and precip chances across southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas with widespread rain showers
spreading across the region. Marginal instability is forecast
underneath the low as it moves over the CWA, with the greater
instability to the south and east of the CWA. Thus, will continue
with slight to low end chance, 20-40 percent, thunderstorm
potentials through Friday night. Overall severe potentials should
remain low through Friday night as well. The main weather impacts
continue to be a heavy rain threat Thursday and Friday as
precipitable water values in excess of 2" spread over southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. At this time, 1-3 inches of
rainfall are forecast south/southeast of Interstate 44 into
western Arkansas, with locally higher amounts in excess of
5 inches potentially through Friday night. The higher end
rainfall amounts on top of recent rains, could quickly increase
flood concerns.

Additional shower and storm chances remain for the weekend into
early next week while a ridge of high pressure builds over the
Desert Southwest and general troughing aloft remains across at
least the eastern half of the CWA. The heavy rain threat should
taper off with the exiting low pressure system Saturday, though a
locally heavy rainfall potential remains into early next week. Any
additional heavy rain combined with the forecast rainfall
Thursday/Friday will continue flood concerns.

With the widespread precip chances late week, cooler temperatures
are anticipated Thursday/Friday. A warming trend then returns for
the weekend into early next week with high temperatures climbing
back into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day with the
exception being across SE OK where increasing showers and storms
are more likely. Further north across NE OK into NW AR the
expectation is scattered mid to late afternoon storms with
coverage decreasing after sunset. The coverage of showers and
storms will increase again overnight with an expanding zone of
MVFR prevailing ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  79  69 /  10  30  50  40
FSM   89  69  80  69 /  20  40  80  60
MLC   84  67  77  69 /  40  70  80  50
BVO   88  67  80  67 /  10  30  40  30
FYV   86  67  78  67 /  20  40  80  60
BYV   86  67  79  66 /  20  40  60  60
MKO   86  68  78  69 /  20  50  70  50
MIO   87  67  80  68 /  10  30  50  40
F10   85  67  78  69 /  30  60  70  40
HHW   81  68  78  69 /  70  70  90  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07