Bella Vista, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS64 KTSA 240450
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1050 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

 - Patchy dense fog is expected to develop overnight and into early
   Wednesday morning to the north and west of Tulsa close to the Kansas
   border. Areas of fog may also develop near the Red River as well by
   Wednesday morning.

 - The weather pattern favors well above average temperatures for
   this time of year, and this is expected to persist through Saturday.
   Daily record highs are expected with all-time December record
   highs also possible.

 - The next cold front arrives late Saturday night into Sunday. This
   front will usher in much more typical temps for this time of year to
   start next week, along with a chance of showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1022 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A stationary front is draped from central MO back into southern KS,
with a surface trough extending down into north-central and western
OK. To the south of the front and trough, warm and moist air is in
place, especially given the time of year. Near and north of the
trough/front, widespread dense fog developed this morning across NE
OK. The latest short-term guidance places the surface features a bit
farther north by Wednesday morning compared to this morning. Dense
fog is already developing over southern KS, and is expected to
spread into north-central and perhaps far NE OK toward morning. An
advisory was considered but have decided to hold off for now due to
uncertainties in the coverage of dense fog. There is also indication
of potential fog down by the Red River, though this could also be
northward advancement of low cloud, reducing the threat for dense
fog there.

Like the previous couple of days, low clouds and fog are expected to
scatter/burn off and allow for another near/record day. The all-time
December high of 80F at Tulsa was set on Christmas Eve in 1955, and
the latest data suggests we could tie that record. We`ll have
southwest surface wind and an expanding LLTR across northern OK. The
only potential negative factor will be increasing high cloud, thus
inserting some uncertainty on a temp forecast that ties or breaks
all-time Dec records. There will be some increase in fire weather
threat as S to SW winds gust 20 to 30 mph during the afternoon, but
the threat will be limited by higher humidity in place.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1022 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Ridging aloft will persist over the Plains this week, with
near/record warmth and dry weather to continue. Models/ensembles
agree that a pattern change will occur to start next week. A strong
cold front is expected to plunge south across the region late
Saturday night into Sunday. The more likely scenarios in the
ensemble cluster data continue to show potential for showers and
isolated storms to develop along the advancing front from SE OK into
NW AR by Sunday morning. The front will usher in much cooler temps
that are more typical for this time of year to start next week,
though this is looking brief with models showing the eastern CONUS
trough axis shifting east away from the region.

Looking farther down the road into early January, recent trends in
the AO (Arctic Oscillation) have been downward, with the index
expected to go negative by the end of December. This suggests that
the probability of an arctic intrusion into the country is going up
as we head into the New Year, but of course the details have yet to
be resolved. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring a piece of the Polar
Vortex down into the Great Lakes region late next week, and along
with it an arctic intrusion down into the country. A cold front
around the middle of next week can be expected, with early
indications suggesting more of a glancing blow, but this could
change.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Areas of fog will be possible tonight, with best chances for
terminal impacts at KBVO and KFSM. Otherwise, expanding low level
cloud cover is expected later tonight, primarily east of Tulsa
across far E OK and impacting NW AR sties through the morning
hours tomorrow. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop once again
during the late morning and afternoon hours across all sites, with
gusts of 20-25 knots likely across much of the area. Winds will
die off again after sunset.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  78  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   61  79  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  79  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   49  77  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   61  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   61  74  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   61  78  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  76  60  77 /  10   0   0   0
F10   61  79  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  77  60  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04