Scottsdale, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

818
FXUS65 KPSR 201141
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
441 AM MST Fri Jun 20 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect across south-central
  Arizona through this evening as lower desert high temperatures
  grange from 103 to 111 degrees.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from this morning through
  tomorrow evening across the higher terrain to the east of
  Phoenix as very dry and increasingly breezy conditions lead to
  elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

- A cooling trend through the weekend will lead to near to below
  normal temperatures by Saturday, persisting through much of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery and objective
analysis show the strong sub-topical high, that brought the hottest
temperatures of the yer so far to south-central AZ, still in place
across southeastern AZ and extending eastward into Texas. It also
shows a trough digging along the Pacific coast. This trough will
continue to progress southeastward through the day today along with
the subtropical high weakening and moving eastward. This will lead
to lowering heights aloft and a cooling trend heading into this
weekend. While several degrees cooler than yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures today are still forecasted to be in the 103-111
degree range across the lower deserts and in the 95-105 degree
range across the higher terrain. With temperatures still above
normal today and warm morning lows (ranging from the mid-70s to
mid-80s across the lower deserts) there is widespread Moderate
HeatRisk across the region. Therefor, the Extreme Heat Warning
remains in effect across south-central AZ through 8 pm MST this
evening. Remember to keep practicing smart heat safety, especially
those that are sensitive to the heat.

In addition to a cooling trend the aforementioned trough will
bring in breezy to locally windy conditions. Winds will gust 20-30
mph with locally higher gusts expected in the higher terrain to
the east of Phoenix and across portions of western Imperial
County. Some wind gusts may approach the 40 mph mark in the far SW
corner of Imperial County this evening and tomorrow evening.
These strong winds in combination with very dry conditions (minRHs
of 4-10% today and 8- 15% tomorrow) will lead to elevated to
critical fire weather conditions. The highest fire weather risk
exists across the higher terrain to the east of Phoenix. Therefor
a Red Flag Warning has been issued for southern Gila County and
the higher terrain in eastern Maricopa and northeast Pinal
Counties from this morning through tomorrow evening.

The aforementioned trough will continue to push into our area
through the weekend, which will continue to lower heights aloft and
allow for further cooling. Temperatures will fall to near normal on
Saturday and fall slightly below normal on Sunday. Sunday is
forecasted to be the coolest day of the next week, with current
forecasted high temperatures of 96-104 degrees. The trough will
linger overhead through the middle of next week keeping temperatures
slightly below normal. By the latter-half of next week the
aforementioned trough will weaken enough allowing heights to
rise, which in turn will allow for temperatures to return to near
to slightly above normal readings.

Global ensemble members continue to show a battle between dry air
and more moist monsoon moisture over our CWA beginning around
Tuesday. The aforementioned Pacific trough will work to keep dry air
and southwesterly flow in place, at least over SE CA and western AZ.
But, some deep moisture over northern Mexico looks to make its way
into SE AZ. This moisture, in combination with upper-level support,
could lead to some isolated to scattered thunderstorms beginning
around Tuesday. This supports some low end chances for showers and
storms as far north as the White Mountains and into Gila County.
Global ensemble members show this moisture hanging around through
the week, which the current NBM is showing as daily low-end
thunderstorm chances for this area.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1140Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Southerly component winds are expected to develop this morning by
16-17Z and then veer W/SW by 20-21Z. Wind speeds will also
increase quickly through late morning and peak up to 10-15 kts
sustained this afternoon with gusts as high as 20-25 kts. Winds
will then gradually subside this evening before returning easterly
at or just after midnight tonight. Skies will remain clear
through the TAF. Slight haziness is possible due to lofted
wildfire smoke from Mexico, but it is not expected to have a
considerable impact on visibility.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Periodic gusty winds will be the main weather concern through the
TAF period, under clear skies. Wind speeds will remain light at
KBLH through mid-morning while KIPL maintains a 10 kt W wind,
ahead of afternoon gusty winds at both terminals. Afternoon/early
evening gusts should hover in the 25-30 kt range at both
terminals. Some reduced visibilities in haze due to a distant
wildfire is possible at IPL this evening should a SW component
wind push the near surface smoke plume into the Imperial Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry conditions continue today with minRHs of 4-10%. A slight
increase is expected tomorrow, but only to 8-15%, which will
continue through most of next week. A cooling trend will occur
starting today and through the weekend. However, temperatures will
still be above normal today and fall to near normal tomorrow.
Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected this afternoon and
evening as well as tomorrow afternoon and evening. Most areas will
see wind gusts of 20-30 mph with higher gusts up around 35 across
the higher terrain to the east of Phoenix and Imperial County. The
dry conditions in combination with these strong winds will lead to
elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect from this morning through tomorrow evening across the
higher terrain to the east of Phoenix. The wind breezy to locally
windy conditions will start to subside heading into next week
along with temperatures falling below normal.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ534-
     537>544-546>556-559>562.

     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Saturday for
     AZZ133.

CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...Benedict/Young
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich