San Luis, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS65 KPSR 132020
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
120 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail through
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
An amplifying blocking pattern continues to develop over the Conus
with pronounced ridging centered over northern California, and
negative height anomalies from the Hudson Bay vortex descending into
Great Lakes and Northeast. This is a common and very stable pattern
for January which shows no signs of deteriorating over at least the
next 7 days. Resounding large scale subsidence will ensure dry
conditions with, at most some passing thin cirrus. The expansion and
intensification of western ridging over the next 48 hours will allow
H5 heights to rise into a 582-585dm range to settle over the
forecast area. Narrow ensemble guidance spread yields excellent
forecast confidence of temperatures 8F-12F above normal, yet still a
few degrees short of record territory.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Ensemble members are in good agreement that some form of the western
Conus blocking pattern (whether it be a Rex or omega block) will
hold through the weekend and into early next week. During this time
frame, strong high pressure will be maintained with temperatures
remaining well above normal (6-10 degrees) continuing into early
next week. The warmest temperatures are forecasted to be during the
end of the workweek, coinciding with the high pressure near its
climatological max. Over the weekend, the high pressure across the
region is expected to retrograde slightly into the NW coastline or
northeast Pacific, however ridging will still be present over our
region, with only a few degrees of potential cooling due to the
relaxation of H5 heights. With ridging continuing to dominate our
region into early next week, dry conditions will also continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Wednesday afternoon
under clear skies. Confidence is good that a westerly wind shift
will occur in the PHX metro later than usual this afternoon with
light winds quickly reverting back to easterly be mid evening. A
light northerly wind will be preferred across SE California with a
tendency towards a W/SW nocturnal component. Extended periods of
nearly calm conditions will be common across the entire region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will warm through the week, going well above normal,
and maximizing during the end of the workweek. Slight cooling of a
few degrees is expected this weekend, but temperatures will remain
above normal. MinRH values of 15-30% and overnight recoveries of
40-70% will continue through the end of the workweek. This weekend
minRH will drop to 15-25% with overnight recoveries of 30-60%.
Wind speeds return to more seasonable levels today and continue
through the weekend. Winds will maintain a northeasterly to
easterly prevailing direction this week across the eastern
districts and a more northerly component across the western
districts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Berislavich/18
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich