Prescott Valley, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS65 KFGZ 221045
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
345 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mild, dry, and breezy conditions are on tap through
Tuesday across Arizona. The pattern looks to become active from
Tuesday night through the Christmas holiday weekend with cooler
temperatures, stronger winds, and chances for widespread precipitation.
Most of the precipitation is forecast to be in the form of rain,
with some high elevation snow possible toward Friday or Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A mainly dry and mild west to southwest flow will
remain in place through the day Tuesday before a Pacific trough
and associated embedded disturbances deliver widespread showers
to northern Arizona starting Tuesday night and lasting through the
Christmas holiday weekend.

Today through the day Tuesday...It will continue quite mild with
little change in daytime highs and overnight lows. A few record
high temperatures will still be possible. The gradual approach of
the Pacific trough will shift winds to a more southerly direction,
generally 5-15 mph gusting to 20 mph today but increasing to
10-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph on Tuesday. Otherwise, high clouds
will be on the increase today becoming quite during the day
Tuesday as the Pacific trough draws nearer.

Tuesday night...Look for a chance of showers to enter the picture
as the first in a series of shortwave disturbances and deeper
moisture moves over northern Arizona. The air mass and moisture
source for this moisture push will be from the subtropics so the
snow levels will be on the high side. The initial showers early
Tuesday evening could produce some wet bulbing with snow levels
down to 8500-9000 feet possible but then climb to near 10,000 feet
through the night. The main threat for Tuesday night showers is
forecast to be along and west of a Payson to Grand Canyon line.

For Wednesday through Friday...A good chance of showers will
continue through sunrise Wednesday morning along and west of a
Payson to Grand Canyon line. Look for a brief downturn in activity
during the day Wednesday before a stronger disturbance,
associated with a passing jet stream maximum aloft, moves across
northern Arizona Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers will
become likely (70-90% chances) south and west of a line extending
from Page to Show Low and more spotty (40-60% chances) north and
east of this line. The snow level will remain elevated through
Thursday morning ranging from 9,500-10,500 feet then gradually
lower to 7,500-8500 feet by late in the day Friday as the colder
trough center approaches Arizona. Daytime temperatures will turn
cooler, especially where showers are most likely. It will remain
breezy with south to southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25
mph,especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim.

From Saturday into early next week...Model solutions remain quite
varied through this period. Solutions range from rapid drying
later on Saturday as high pressure builds over the southwest to
a stronger low lingering to the west of Arizona, then moving
across the area later on Sunday into Monday with widespread
showers. All this has to do with subtle features emanating from
over the data void of the Pacific Ocean. It would be best to check
back as we form a consensus as to what the weekend weather will
bring.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 22/12Z through Tuesday 23/12Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds S-SW 5-15kts daytime, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 23/12Z through Thursday 25/12Z...VFR conditions
with no precipitation expected through 24/00Z. VFR with MVFR and
potentially IFR conditions at mountain terminals from 24/03Z
onward as rain showers move into the area and become more
numerous. Winds S 10-20kts gusts to 30kts Tuesday, S-SW 10-20kts,
gusts to 30kts Wednesday and Thursday. Winds are not likely to
decrease during overnight periods.




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Dry conditions continue
through early Tuesday afternoon with daytime temperatures 15-25
degrees above average both days. By Tuesday evening rain shower
chances ranging from 30-60% move into the region with the best
precipitation chances south of I-40 and west of AZ-87. Winds S-SW
5-10 mph with gusts 20 mph on Monday, S 10-20 mph, gusts to 30
mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH values 15-25% Monday and
Tuesday with RH values increasing significantly Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Rain showers will increase in coverage
Wednesday and Thursday, with showers becoming more scattered on
Friday. Precipitation amounts by Friday night could range between
1 and 2" south of I-40 and west of AZ-87. Cooler temperatures
with highs reaching 5 degrees above average western zones where
precipitation is favored to 10-15 degrees above average in eastern
zones where precipitation chances are lower. Winds S-SW 15-30 mph
Wednesday and Thursday, S-SW 10-25 mph Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff