Marana, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

935
FXUS65 KTWC 102033
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Near normal to above normal temperatures are expected through the
work week. A pattern switch is likely this coming weekend which
should bring cooler temperatures and chances for rain showers and
mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest flow in the mid to upper levels has brought southeastern
Arizona slightly above normal temperatures this afternoon. Water
vapor imagery shows a stream of upper level moisture extending
into the Gulf of California that will bring high clouds over the
region late this afternoon through tomorrow. Warm temperatures
remain tomorrow, though potentially a degree or two below today
given the expected cloud cover. Tuesday will see temperatures come
down a few degrees as an open wave trough and dry front cross the
state. A slight uptick in breezy winds on Tuesday is also
forecast. Above normal temperatures return through the remainder
of the work week under ridging aloft.

Upstream of this ridging will be a deeper low pressure trough,
expected to arrive at or cross the desert southwest this weekend.
While probability of occurrence is fairly high across ensemble
members, timing and wave amplitude remain areas of uncertainty,
which is reasonable given this lead time. A majority of 500mb
ensemble members bring the trough axis through southeastern
Arizona on Sunday, but there is a minority contingent which
closes the low pressure circulation off the western Baja coast,
creating a delay in the impacts of this system by about a day. As
Sunday is just now entering the 7 day forecast period there
remains plenty of time for the forecast to adjust, but it remains
reasonable that precipitation chances increase Sunday across the
board while temperatures drop. However a slower solution would
delay these chances a bit. Given the strong likelihood of
troughing this weekend into next week, below normal temperatures
are likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.

FEW cirrus AOA 20k feet this afternoon becoming SCT-BKN late this
evening and remaining through the forecast period. Surface winds
primarily terrain driven with speeds under 10 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and near to above normal temperatures this week.
Minimum relative humidities through next week will be around 10-20
percent in valleys and 20-30 percent in the mountains. 20-ft winds
mainly less than 15 mph through next week, with some gusts to 20 mph
on Tuesday. A pattern switch will likely bring cooler temperatures
and chances for precipitation this coming weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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