Fortuna Foothills, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS65 KPSR 222344
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
444 PM MST Sun Jun 22 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures the next several days followed by a
return to above normal as early as Thursday with lower desert highs
returning around 110 degrees next weekend

- Dry conditions will prevail under mostly clear skies with
afternoon and evening breeziness (15 to 25 mile per hour gusts)

- Slight chances (10 to 20 percent) for afternoon storms in parts
  of Southern Gila County beginning as early as Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water Vapor imagery shows a large trough-ridge pattern that can
be seen spanning across the entire CONUS. This has lead to a
heating trend in the eastern CONUS and a cooling trend in the
western CONUS, a stark dichotomy between the east and west. The
troughing feature in the west, currently positioned just north of
the Great Basin, is helping drive cooler temperatures today
through Wednesday of this week, with high temperatures expected to
be around 2-5 degrees below normal for the lower deserts. Today
is forecasted to be coolest day, with most of the lower desert
locations just shy of the 100 degree mark. This is quite rare for
Phoenix as sub-100 degree highs has been observed 7 times between
June 20th-30th during the 2000s (Yuma 11 times & El Centro 13
times).

Enjoy these sub-seasonal temperatures while they last since they
will gradually trend back to near normal throughout the week as the
trough progresses eastward. By Thursday, temperatures will be
back to slightly above normal with most locations in the lower
desert having forecasted highs between 105-109 degrees as 500 mb
heights will be around 587-588 dm. 500mb heights will continue to
increase after Thursday, with temperatures expected to be back
over the 110 degree mark by the weekend, leading to widespread
moderate HeatRisk starting as early as Friday. Additionally, as
the trough lingers over the western CONUS, afternoon gusts
generally between 15-25 mph will be common over the next several
days, especially across Imperial County in southeast CA.

The Desert Southwest is still fairly dry this week with PWAT
anomalies generally ranging between 40-80% of normal, with the
bulk of the more seasonable moisture contained in the
southeastern portions of the state. This looks like it will lead
to some isolated storms developing in parts of southeast AZ
beginning around Tuesday, including as far north as the White
Mountains and possibly into southeastern Gila County. Looking a
little further ahead, long-range models are not indicating any
strong signals for anymore negative height anomalies across the
West and there is consensus for the monsoon high becoming
established across the Desert Southwest around or just after July
4th and looks to steadily strengthen over the month of July.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2340Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No major aviation weather issues under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will exhibit
the typical diurnal tendencies with a several hour period from the
mid-morning through early afternoon hours on Monday of southerly
wind crosswinds. Wind speeds are expected to remain under 12 kts
with periodic gusts into the mid to upper teens through early this
evening and once again for Monday afternoon/early evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather issues under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will switch out of the
west this evening and persist through the overnight period before
switching out of the southeast by early Monday morning. At KBLH,
mainly southerly winds will prevail throughout the period. Wind
speeds are expected to remain under 12 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no considerable fire weather concerns through the next 7
days, aside from perhaps some isolated dry thunderstorm impacts in
parts of southern Gila County (toward the White Mountains) beginning
Tuesday. Winds will be lighter than the previous couple of days, but
still breezy in the afternoons and evenings with daily peak gusts up
to 15-25 mph. Conditions overall will remain dry with daily minimum
RH values down to 5-15% and overnight recoveries only to 20-40%.
Near to below normal temperatures are expected through the first
half of the week, but will warm through the end of the week and
lower desert highs will push back to around the 110 degree mark as
early as Friday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ryan/Benedict
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Benedict