Casas Adobes, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

661
FXUS65 KTWC 240907
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
207 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will be on the southeastern edge of a
large scale Pacific storm system over the next few days. A few light
showers will occur this morning, especially from Tucson westward,
otherwise only a spot shower or two this afternoon across Southeast
Arizona. Another disturbance will result in a few more light showers
tonight into Christmas. Generally dry Friday through the weekend
with only a slight chance of showers on Saturday. Additional
precipitation is possible early next week. Temperatures remain about
10 degrees above normal through Friday with additional cooling to
about 2 to 5 degrees above normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...While the significant meteorological action across the
west coast remains to our west across California, we sit here in
southeast Arizona on the southeast fringes of this system patiently
waiting to see what rainfall may transpire for our area. In the near
term for this morning through the day today, it`s not too impressive
as the first disturbance riding up in the southwest flow is
delivering some light shower activity with precipitation amounts up
to a few hundredths of an inch west of Tucson thus far. This band of
light showers (which is mostly virga or precipitation not reaching
the ground except in the heaviest areas) will continue mainly from
Tucson westward through the morning hours. Additional rainfall
amounts will generally be a trace to less than 0.05". For this
afternoon, mostly just a spot light shower here and there focused
from Tucson eastward with most locales staying dry. Temperatures
will cool down compared to where we`ve been over the past 5 days or
so but still remain about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year with mostly cloudy skies.

For tonight into Christmas morning another disturbance will provide
some additional lift to result in a few more showers. The latest
HRRR/HREF is focusing the timing to be mainly after midnight and
then continuing through the morning hours with precipitation chances
diminishing during the afternoon. PoPs in the 30%-50% range are
reasonable but we should note the guidance has backed off a bit in
the past 24 hours and we`re now looking at QPF mainly from a trace
to 0.10" for most locales. Snow levels will be above the mountain
tops through Thursday as temperatures continue to run about 10
degrees above normal.

For Friday our area will be under relatively benign and mostly dry
southwest flow aloft as the longwave trough remains to our west
along the California coast. Above normal temperatures continue.

Uncertainty increases this weekend and into early next week on the
evolution of the trough/upper level low on how far east it
progresses and then a portion subsequently retrograding into the
eastern Pacific early next week. For the most part, southeast
Arizona is expected to remain dry this weekend with a return to
broad brushed slight chance PoPs early next week but confidence is
lower than normal for this period. Temperatures should lower this
weekend to just a few degrees above normal then nudging up slightly
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
BKN-OVC 8-14k ft AGL thru the end of valid period. Isolated -SHRA
continues through about 24/16Z with only slight chances thereafter
thru about 25/06Z. Thereafter, SCT -SHRA returns thru the end of the
valid period. SFC wind variable at 10 kts or less thru 24/18Z,
becoming SELY/SLY and  increasing to at 7-14 kts with occasional
gusts to around 20 kts until 24/03Z. SFC winds then taper to 12 kts
or less and become more variable through to the end of the forecast
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures remain about 10 degrees above normal
through Friday with cooling to slightly above normal levels this
weekend. Subtropical moisture in combination with a couple
disturbances aloft will result in a few light showers focused on
this morning and then again late tonight into Christmas. Additional
precipitation chances may occur early next week. 20-foot winds will
be 15 mph or less and terrain driven into the weekend, though some
gusts around 20 mph are expected today. Min relative humidity values
at all elevations will be in the 30-45 percent (and higher in the
mountains) into the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


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