Tillmans Corner, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

580
FXUS64 KMOB 242339
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Tonight through Wednesday Night...

The axis of the large elongated upper ridge extending from north
central Mexico to New England will remain mostly fixed going into
midweek. The weather gets rather interesting from late Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night as the center of an upper low
pressure area north of the Bahamas approaches the Florida east
coast. The atmosphere will be largely suppressed tonight through
much of Wednesday as large-scale subsidence dominates the region.
However, at some point late Wednesday afternoon when high temps
reach maximum values of 95 to 100 degrees (about 6 to 10 degrees
above normal) we expect the capping inversion (roughly around 700mb)
to be broken. At that time, the atmosphere will have had all day to
heat up and essentially become a power keg, with MLCAPE values
reaching as high as 4000 to 5000 J/kg. There should be enough mixing
of drier air aloft where surface dewpoints will lower to around 70
degrees, keeping maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) below
108 degrees, which is the lower end of our Heat Advisory criteria.

We are anticipating two waves of storms to pass through the forecast
area, with the first complex of thunderstorms occurring in the late
afternoon through mid-evening, followed by a second complex of
storms after midnight. Only this time, these waves will be moving
from east to west as we are now firming in the easterlies. Damaging
surface winds from localized microbursts will be the main threat as
DCAPE values could be as high as 1200 J/kg. Large hail up to around
2 inches in diameter (cue ball size) will also be a threat with
mid-level lapse rates reach as high as 7.2 C/km. Frequent
lightning and heavy bouts of rain are likely as well. A LOW risk
of rip currents remains in place through midweek. /22

Thursday through Tuesday...

The diurnal cycle of summer convection continues Thursday through
Tuesday as an upper low/trof axis eases into and remains over
southeast U.S maintaining a steady flow of impulses aloft to aid in
upper support for storms. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
are expected each day with the highest coverage during the afternoon
carrying over into the evening hours. The thunderstorm mode is
favored to be pulse type each afternoon into the early evening with
complex convective initiation processes driven by intersections and
motions of outflow boundaries via the mesoscale.Forecasters can`t
rule out a few strong to marginally severe storms during time of
peak heating and highest environmental instability. Main impacts in
any higher intensity storms will be strong gusty winds, frequent
lightning, locally heavy rain, and perhaps small hail.

Thursday`s highs range 92 to 96 and will be 2 to 6 degrees above
normal. Considering the degree of expected convective coverage, high
temps are favored to be tempered somewhat thereafter, ranging from
the upper 80s/lower 90s Friday through Tuesday which will actually
be closer to normal for late June. Low temperatures range in the
lower/mid 70s interior and the mid/upper 70s along the beaches and
barrier islands. A low risk of rip currents remains in place through
the weekend. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the forecast area are
bringing local drops in general VFR conditions to low/mid MVFR
levels along with locally strong and variable winds. This
convection will decrease though the evening as the day`s heating
is lost. VFR conditions are expected overnight, with convection
expected to refire offshore overnight, and possible affect near
coastal areas with MVFR levels CIGS. Convection is expected to
become more extensive beginning mid afternoon into the evening,
with low end MVFR CIGS and locally strong and variable winds
possible.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

No significant impacts to small craft are expected as a
light onshore this evening becomes a light offshore flow late each
night and morning through midweek, and then switching back to a
light onshore flow in the afternoon and evening. A light southerly
to southwesterly flow will follow Thursday afternoon through the
upcoming weekend. /22
&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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