Mountain Brook, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

738
FXUS64 KBMX 290514
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1214 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to elevated heat risk across
  Central Alabama through much of this week. A Heat Advisory is in
  effect through 9 pm Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026

Our main story to start off is our hot and humid temperatures
that are expected through the short term thanks to ridging. A
heat advisory continues to be in effect for Monday and Tuesday. We
will be evaluating daily the need to extend the advisory as we go
through the week. Regardless of advisories, the overall heat risk
will be elevated.

Rainfree conditions are expected through Monday night with weak
surface ridging in place over the gulf coast. At present we have
an upper ridge developing across the midsection of the US
including Texas, the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and into the
Deep South. Any significant fronts are expected to remain well to
the north of Alabama, and surface ridging is expected to expand
across much of Eastern Conus through this week. By Tuesday,
guidance continues to show a shortwave that will begin to make
its way around the large Eastern Conus upper ridge. This wave
will help to provide a focus for isolated to scattered diurnally
enhanced convection as it propagates around the ridge for through
mid week. This could be the caveat that may help with the heat
risk for some of the southeast counties if temperatures end up
lower with increased convection for midweek. We will also need to
watch for any short lived, unorganized stronger storms that could
produce gusty winds.

For Wednesday into Thursday, the upper ridge will slowly nudge
eastward toward the Atlantic States. At the same time, a trough
begins to develop behind it breaking the weak ridging across the
Southern US. This should increase rain chances slightly as we
head into the weekend. Again, the increased activity may help
alleviate some of the heat risk, but just where is too soon to
tell.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the 24-hour forecast period at
all sites, with ridging in place and only fair-weather
cumulus/cirrus at times. Winds will be light and variable
overnight, becoming west-northwest at 5 to 10 kts with mixing in
the afternoon. There could be a few locations, specifically EET
and TCL, that see temporary restrictions right at sunrise due to
fog, so will only include some brief MVFR at this time.

Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data
issues with observations are resolved.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rainfree conditions are expected through tonight. Slightly better
diurnal convection chances are expected by Tuesday. Outside of
pockets of rain, the primary story through this week will be the
heat and humidity. Fire weather impacts are not anticipated as
minimum relative humidity will remain well above critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  75  97  77 /   0   0  30   0
Anniston    95  76  96  76 /   0   0  30  10
Birmingham  97  77  97  78 /   0   0  20   0
Tuscaloosa  97  76  97  78 /   0   0  20  10
Calera     100  76 100  77 /   0   0  30  10
Auburn      96  77  93  76 /   0   0  50   0
Montgomery  96  76  95  76 /   0   0  40  10
Troy        96  75  94  75 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...16