Mountain Brook, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

173
FXUS64 KBMX 021144
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
644 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025

This AM, our satellite loop is showing generally fair skies with
only some thin high cirrus across C AL, with thicker clouds present
along the SRN part of the state. At the surface, ridging remains
present across the Deep South. Surface ridging will slowly weaken
and nudge EWD through Tue. In the upper levels, a large upper low
present over ERN Canada will push EWD today and off the Atlantic
Coast with ridging building behind it from the Great Lakes to LA.
The shortwave rotating around the upper trough breaks off over FL by
early Tue as the trough pushes EWD. The upper ridge shifts in
response on Tue toward the Atlantic Coast. This all results in our
NW upper flow today over C AL becoming very light/variable for today
and Tue.

We will continue to be rain free through the short term as ridging
continues. Our airmass will continue to moderate with temperatures
warmer each day.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025

As a longwave trough over the northeast U.S. departs and a ridge
axis advances in its wake, a shortwave trough over the Lower
Mississippi Valley today/Sunday will become removed from upper-
level flow and meander over the southeast U.S. through late week.
This shortwave will then be nudged northeastward toward the Mid-
Atlantic Coast over the weekend as a series of disturbances and a
front advance from the central U.S., along the northern perimeter
of a ridge centered from southern Texas into Mexico.

Given the evolution of this pattern, an increase in vertical
moisture content will aid the opportunity for mainly diurnally-
driven showers and storms Wednesday-Friday for parts of the
region. Over the weekend, it looks like we`ll become involved
within westerly 500 mb flow with a front stalled in the vicinity,
supporting an increase in shower and storm chances. Models
suggest showers and storms developing locally but also the
potential for upstream storm complexes to form and track our way,
adding the potential for nighttime showers and storms. We`ll have
to monitor the timing and path of these features as there are
windows of weak to moderate instability with modest bulk shear
that could support strong storm activity.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025

Generally VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours with surface
ridging. The exception will be KTCL which could see some patchy
ground fog for a couple of more hours before clearing. Otherwise,
winds should be light/variable to calm for much of the time with
minimal cloud cover.

Both KEET and KMGM will have AMD NOT SKED appended to the TAF due
to comms/equipment issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fair weather is forecast today and Tuesday. An increase in
moisture and the proximity of various weather systems will result
in opportunities for showers and storms starting on Wednesday.
Coverage will vary from day to day with the greatest footprint of
activity currently forecast to occur during the weekend. Afternoon
minimum RHs will remain above critical thresholds over the coming
days with 20-foot winds averaging less than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  61  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    86  63  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  86  65  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  88  65  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      86  65  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      86  65  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  86  64  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        86  64  90  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...08