Mountain Brook, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

879
FXUS64 KBMX 030728
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
228 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 204 AM CDT THU APR 3 2025

 - There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across the
   northwest and west portions of Central Alabama during the pre-
   dawn and into the daytime hours on Sunday. The threats include
   tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT THU APR 3 2025

Satellite imagery this morning reveals a line of severe
thunderstorms to our northwest where a frontal boundary is
stalled across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Locally, low level
stratus has been moving north across Central Alabama as a ~30 knot
LLJ continues to usher moisture northward across the Mid South.
The upper level pattern remains fairly similar to yesterday with a
ridge to our east and a trough to our west. Will continue with a
mention of a low chance of showers and storms across our
northwestern counties due to the proximity of the stalled boundary
and the H85-H5 impulses ejecting along the periphery of the
trough. We will also be nearing our convective temps once again so
can`t rule out a rogue storm. Just as we saw yesterday, any storm
that develops will have the potential to quickly reach severe
limits. Breezy conditions will continue today across the area.
However, it won`t be quite as strong as what we saw yesterday so
will hold off on a Wind Advisory. The setup is pretty similar for
Friday with low chances for showers and storms across our
northwestern counties.

We saw quite the warm up on Wednesday with several record highs
broken across the region. Will once again bump up high temps a
couple of degrees based on the latest HREF probabilities and the
ECMWF EFI hinting at an unusually warm event. High temps today and
tomorrow will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices
in the low to mid 90s.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025

The long-term will remain on the warm side, as the strong upper-
level ridge hangs on tight. In turn, record high temperatures will
remain possible through Saturday, as afternoon highs could push 90
degrees through then. Thankfully, this ridge will finally begin to
break down on Saturday, allowing for this stuck cold front to our
north to finally begin its ejection.

This cold front should begin working into the region sometime on
Saturday night, bringing with it a line of showers and
thunderstorms. While there is still a lot of timing discrepancies
with this line, the general consensus is that this line of storms
could be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the primary
threat. Most of this activity also looks to take place overnight
Saturday, with some potential for strong storms to linger into the
day on Sunday.

By the start of the new workweek, the pattern will shift towards
the other side of the spectrum, as persistent upper-level
troughing will allow for well below average temperatures. Highs
into the middle of the workweek will linger in the low to mid-60s,
with overnight lows falling into the upper-30s and low-40s

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT THU APR 3 2025

GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals a low level stratus
deck moving into the area from our south-southwest. MGM is already
experiencing MVFR cigs. All other sites will fall in the next
several hours. VFR returns by 17/18Z. Another round of MVFR
stratus is likely towards the end of this TAF window. Gusty
southerly winds continue through this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions are anticipated to remain into the
weekend, before rain chances increase overnight Saturday. Some of
this rain could be moderate to heavy at times, with conditions
drying out once again to start the new workweek.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025

Forecast high temperatures will continue to be near record values
from Thursday, April 3rd to Saturday, April 5th. The table below
shows current record high temperatures for each of those days.

                April 3     April 4     April 5

Anniston        89          86          88
Birmingham      87          88          88
Tuscaloosa      86          87          89
Montgomery      87          89          91

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  66  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    90  64  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  90  69  89  67 /   0   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  90  68  89  66 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      89  67  89  66 /   0   0  10   0
Auburn      88  66  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  90  67  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  66  88  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95