Gulf Shores, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

850
FXUS64 KMOB 241116
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
516 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period, although cannot
rule out the potential for some patchy fog late tonight. An
easterly to northeasterly flow at 5 to 10 knots today diminishes
to around 5 knots or less this evening. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

A southwest upper flow will develop today as an upper level
shortwave develops moves into the southern plains and moves east.
Downstream of this trough, clouds will increase across the area
late today into Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to increase
as the area will be in a broad warm advection regime. Highs today
warm into the low to mid 60s inland. lows tonight fall into the
mid 30s and low 40s inland to around 50 along the coast. Rain will
begin to spread into the area from the west on Christmas as the
shortwave to the west moves east. However, the shortwave is
expected to weaken as it approaches. This will result in the rain
coverage decreasing as it approaches and moves across the area.
Any lingering showers will move east of the area Wednesday night
with some drier air moving in. Lows Wednesday night fall into the
mid/upper 40s inland to mid 50s near the coast. /13

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

An upper trof over the southern/central Plains breaks down while
lifting into the interior eastern states through Friday. This is
quickly followed by another upper trof which progresses across
the central states on Friday and likewise ejects off across the
interior eastern states. A stubborn surface ridge will meanwhile be
in place over the southeast states as a surface low over the
southern Plains lifts off into Missouri by late Thursday night
before dissipating. Have gone with slight chance pops for the
southern half of the area on Thursday with slight chance to chance
pops for most of the area on Friday as initially modest isentropic
lift strengthens along with improving deep layer moisture. This
active pattern is followed by a longwave trof evolving over the
central states on Saturday which progresses into the eastern
states through Sunday before ejecting well off to the north on
Monday. There continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty with
the movement of a surface low which develops in response to the
longwave trof pattern. At this time, it appears that a surface low
lifts from the Plains towards the Great Lakes and bring a cold
front through the forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday,
but it is not clear how strong of a front this will be. Have for
now opted to continue with good chance to likely pops for Saturday
into Saturday night with chance pops for Sunday and will continue
to assess on subsequent shifts. Uncertainty with the pattern makes
it rather difficult to determine how much of an improvement in
instability is possible before the frontal passage this weekend.
For now, will include mention of some embedded thunderstorms on
Friday with a bit better coverage of thunderstorms for Saturday
night into Sunday. A moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday
will be followed by a high risk for Thursday night through
Saturday night. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

A generally light east to southeast flow will continue through
midweek. The east to southeast flow will increase late in the week
as another cold front approaches the area. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  46  67  54  68  58  72  62 /   0   0  40  50  20  20  30  40
Pensacola   64  49  65  55  67  59  70  63 /   0   0  20  50  20  20  20  30
Destin      66  49  68  54  69  58  72  62 /   0   0  10  40  20  20  20  30
Evergreen   64  37  66  46  66  50  71  57 /   0   0  10  40  10  10  20  30
Waynesboro  64  38  64  48  67  55  71  59 /   0   0  30  40  10  20  40  40
Camden      60  35  64  45  64  51  68  57 /   0   0  10  40  10  10  20  30
Crestview   66  39  68  47  68  52  73  57 /   0   0  10  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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